China to impose some graphite and processed graphite materials ‘export permits’ from December 1, 2023

Last week it was reported that China, the world’s top graphite producer plans to curb exports of key battery material by implementing export permits for some graphite products from December 1 to protect national security. Another report stated: “China graphite export restrictions could hinder ex-China anode development….if it lasts into the longer term, it is likely to accelerate the build-out of a localized graphite and battery anode supply chain outside China.”

Graphite is the number one metal required for lithium-ion batteries making up about a 28% share. It is used in the anode.

The world is very dependent upon China to supply processed graphite material and anodes for Li-ion batteries

The reason why this is huge news in the graphite world is that China produces 67% of global natural flake graphite supply and refines more than 90% of the world’s graphite into active anode material (typically spherical graphite). If China were to deny or delay permits for spherical graphite it will cause major problems for anode manufacturers outside China, such as those in South Korea, Japan, or North America.

China currently produces ~77% of global lithium-ion batteries and 75-80% of global electric cars, thereby completely dominating the industry. If the West is shut out from sourcing processed EV battery materials from China then they will have a major problem producing their own EVs. China plans to prioritize EV battery materials for their own needs. This is why President Biden introduced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the EU introduced the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. Both are designed to address the shortages in the EV supply chain and the forecast shortages of future supply of critical raw materials. The problem is the IRA has done little to address the supply of raw materials and the EU Critical Raw Materials Act is woefully inadequate and targets fall way short of what will be needed.

Which western graphite companies can rise to meet the challenge to establish an ex-China graphite supply chain

The leading western graphite companies that are working to establish an ex-China supply chain for flake graphite, synthetic graphite, and spherical graphite include:

• Syrah Resources Limited (ASX: SYR) – Largest western flake graphite producer with their 350,000tpa flake graphite capacity Balama Mine in Mozambique. Currently constructing the Vidalia spherical graphite facility in Louisiana, USA with Stage 1 production plans to produce 11,250tpa of spherical graphite. Longer term they plan to expand to 45,000tpa in 2026 and then to >100,000tpa by 2030 with an Europe/Middle East facility. Syrah already has an off-take agreement with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). Syrah’s stock price has surged ~80% higher the past week following the release of the China export permits news.
• Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NYSE: NMG | TSXV: NOU) – Is rapidly progressing their plans for their Matawinie Graphite Mine and Bécancour Battery Anode Material Plant in Quebec, Canada. The company is working with Panasonic to qualify their graphite anode material. Panasonic supplies Tesla with batteries.
• Northern Graphite Corporation (TSXV: NGC | OTCQB: NGPHF) – Owns graphite producing and past producing mines in Quebec, Canada and Namibia. They also own the Bissett Creek graphite Project in Ontario, Canada. The Company state that they are “North America’s Only Significant Natural Graphite Producer”. The Company plans to develop one of the world’s largest battery anode materials facilities in Baie-Comeau Québec with 200,000tpa of capacity.
• NextSource Materials Inc. (TSX: NEXT | OTCQB: NSRCF) – A new graphite producer from their Molo Graphite Mine in Madagascar with Phase 1 capacity of 17,000tpa of flake graphite production and plans to expand to 150,000tpa. The Company’s short term plan is for a Battery Anode Facility in Mauritius and longer term for similar facilities in USA/Canada, UK, EU.
• Magnis Energy Technologies Ltd. (ASX: MNS | OTCQX: MNSEF) – Magnis aims to produce high performance anode materials utilising ultra-high purity natural flake graphite from their Nachu Graphite Project in Tanzania. Magnis’ partially owned U.S.-based subsidiary Imperium3 New York, Inc (“iM3NY”) operates a gigawatt scale lithium-ion battery manufacturing project in Endicott, New York.
• Talga Group Ltd. (ASX: TLG) – Own the integrated mine to anode Vittangi Graphite Project in Sweden. In September 2023 Talga broke ground on their 19,500tpa anode facility, stating “the refinery is projected to be the first commercial anode production in Europe for electric vehicle Li-ion batteries”.
• Novonix Limited (NASDAQ: NVX | ASX: NVX) – Has a production capacity target of up to 20,000 tpa of synthetic graphite anode material from their Tennessee facility in the USA.
• Anovion Technologies (private) – The USA anode producer plans to invest US$800 million to produce a 40,000tpa synthetic graphite anode material facility in Georgia, USA with plans to expand to 150,000tpa by 2030.

Syrah Resources leads the West’s attempt to build an ex-China flake graphite and anode material supply chain

Magnis Energy Technologies is working towards becoming a graphite producer, anode materials producer and is already a small scale JV battery producer in the USA

Closing remarks

The Western world received a loud wake-up call the past week. The China graphite products ‘export permits’ may only serve to restrict or slow down some anode material supply from China, but it puts the West on notice of how dependent they are upon China.

Given the world is rapidly moving to electric vehicles, the West must urgently build up its EV materials supply chains or risk being left behind in the global EV race.

The USA is making some bold moves and the companies discussed in this article are moving in the right direction. Let’s just hope that the western EV supply chain build out accelerates rather than stalls like GM’s latest electric pickup truck plans. I think Americans will want U.S.-branded electric cars and I know Europeans will want European branded electric cars. If we are not careful our only choice one day might be Tesla and Chinese electric cars. Stay tuned.

Recent developments from China’s Ministry of Commerce concerning export permits on critical graphite products have sent ripples through the financial markets. Graphite, indispensable for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, is now under tighter control by China, a country that dominates its global production.

Troy Grant of Elcora Advanced Materials Corp. (TSXV: ERA) highlights,

“Graphite content in an electric vehicle exceeds the demand for any other critical mineral fivefold. We’ve observed China make similar business maneuvers with rare earths, germanium, gallium, and now graphite. This trajectory was anticipated. While I concur with CMI’s Jack Lifton on lithium or cobalt possibly being next, we shouldn’t overlook vanadium.”

According to Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) Director Matt Bohlsen out of Australia early AM,

“The EV boom is creating a surge in demand for graphite… Each fully electric car battery has between 60-100kgs of graphite. China’s proposed ‘export permits’ will likely lead to a shortage of spherical and synthetic graphite outside of China, underscoring the world’s vulnerability to China’s supply disruption of critical minerals.”

Investors are now unquestionably watching stocks that might benefit the global market in light of the challenges presented by yet another China C Critical Mineral export ban. Here are five stocks that we were researching this morning (listed by market cap):

1: Syrah Resources Limited (ASX: SYR) – Market Cap: AUD$307.53M* — Syrah is an Australian Securities Exchange listed industrial minerals and technology company with its flagship Balama Graphite Operation in Mozambique and a downstream Active Anode Material Facility in the United States. Syrah’s vision is to be the world’s leading supplier of superior quality graphite and anode material products, working closely with customers and the supply chain to add value in battery and industrial markets.

2: Talga Group Ltd. (ASX: TLG) – Market Cap: AUD$353.53M* — Talga Group Ltd. is building a European battery materials supply chain to offer products critical to the green transition. Talga’s innovative technology and vertical integration of 100% owned Swedish graphite resources provides security of supply and creates additional value for stakeholders.

3: Zentek Ltd. (NASDAQ: ZTEK | TSXV: ZEN) – Market Cap: USD$128.24M*

Zentek is an ISO 13485:2016 certified intellectual property technology company focused on the research, development and commercialization of novel products seeking to give the Company’s commercial partners a competitive advantage by making their products better, safer, and greener.

Zentek’s patented technology platform ZenGUARD™, is shown to have 99-per-cent anti-microbial activity and to significantly increase the bacterial and viral filtration efficiency of both surgical masks and HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) systems. Zentek’s ZenGUARD™ production facility is located in Guelph, Ontario.

Zentek has a global exclusive license to the Aptamer-based platform technology developed by McMaster University which is being jointly developed Zentek and McMaster for both the diagnostic and therapeutic markets.

Zentek is also the 100% owner of Albany Graphite Corp. (AGC).  AGC’s recently filed 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate shows circa 1,000,000 tonnes of graphite in Ontario.  Importantly, that graphite is volcanic of origin, and globally unique. It is expected that graphite from AGC will perform better in EV batteries than other materials because of the volcanic origin.

4: Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NYSE: NMG | TSXV: NOU) – Market Cap: USD$159.6M*

Nouveau Monde Graphite is striving to become a key contributor to the sustainable energy revolution. The Company is working towards developing a fully integrated source of carbon-neutral battery anode material in Québec, Canada, for the growing lithium-ion and fuel cell markets. With enviable ESG standards, NMG aspires to become a strategic supplier to the world’s leading battery and automobile manufacturers, providing high-performing and reliable advanced materials while promoting sustainability and supply chain traceability.

5: Northern Graphite Corporation (TSXV: NGC | OTCQB: NGPHF) – Market Cap: CAD$28.6M*

Northern is a Canadian, TSX Venture Exchange listed company that is focused on becoming a world leader in producing natural graphite and upgrading it into high value products critical to the green economy including anode material for Lithium-Ion batteries/EVs, fuel cells and graphene, as well as advanced industrial technologies.

Northern is the only graphite producing company in North America and will become the third largest producer outside of China when its Namibian operations come back online. The Company has the large scale Bissett Creek development project in Ontario that will be a source of continued production growth in the future.  All projects have “battery quality” graphite and are located close to infrastructure in politically stable jurisdictions.

(*) Market cap figures were sourced from the ASX, TSX, and Yahoo Finance Boards as of market opening on Friday, October 20, 2023. The listed market caps are in millions.

Amid these market shifts, it is pivotal for investors to stay updated and understand the dynamics affecting graphite and related stocks in the critical minerals sector. As China tightens its control over graphite exports, these companies and the wider EV sector will be in sharp focus, making it a space to watch closely in the coming months.