As we mark the somber first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I thought it would be interesting to have a look at what equities have been impacted by this brutal and very unnecessary war. My first thought was that defense or drone stocks would be slam-dunk outperformers. I also figured there would be several resource companies that may have done well if they produce key commodities where Russia was a dominant player, assuming the company in question wasn’t actually operating in Russia where it likely would have had to forego its assets. What I found surprised me.

Defense and Drone Companies

I first looked at the biggest U.S. defense and drone stocks and did not find what I expected at all. Let’s start with Raytheon Technologies Corporation (NYSE: RTX), and Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) because not only are they two of the largest market cap defense contractors (US$145 billion and US$122 billion, respectively) but they also count as two of the biggest manufacturers of military drones. Excluding dividends, Raytheon is actually down 3.5% over the last year, while Lockheed Martin rose 10.5%. Granted a positive 10.5% return over the last year did materially outperform the S&P 500, which was down 9% over the comparable time period, I was expecting a much better return.

Given the ever-increasing use and impact of drones in Ukraine, I thought I’d look at a company that was almost exclusively focused on this sector alone to see if there was any difference in performance from the multi-faceted defense names. I choose Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (Nasdaq GS: KTOS). Not only because of the name but the Company has contract ties to the U.S. Department of Defense, and roughly 25% of Kratos’ revenue comes from its “Unmanned Systems” division. This all sounds good on paper but the Kratos share price saw a dismal 40% loss over the last 12 months. Even with that pummeling, Capital IQ has the stock trading at 33.2x Forward P/E. I don’t think I’ll be putting this name on my list as a hedge against the war in Ukraine dragging on for a lot longer.

(Note: An Unmanned System (US) or Unmanned Vehicle (UV) can be grouped into four primary types: (1) in the air, as Unmanned Aerial Vehicle or System  (UAV or UAS), commonly known as a “drone”; (2) on the ground, as Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV); (3) on the water surface, as Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV); and, (4) in the water, as Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV).)

Commodity Stocks

Time to change gears and start looking at commodities. Despite oil, natural gas, and refined products accounting for Russia’s largest value of exports, I chose platinum as the first place to look given Russia’s Norilsk Nickel (MISX: GMKN) accounts for 10-12% of the world supply, which is a higher percentage of global market share than oil or natural gas. For reference, Nornickel, as it is also known, is also the world’s largest palladium and refined nickel producer, plus a top-ten producer of copper as well. The best platinum/palladium surrogate I could find was Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE: SBSW), another of the world’s largest primary producers of platinum and palladium. This stock is down an abysmal 57% over the last 52 weeks. With platinum prices down 10% year-over-year and palladium down 41%, it appears the market isn’t reeling from the impact of Russian supply disruptions in these particular metals.

Early in the conflict, natural gas was making a lot of headlines, with European prices spiking to unimaginable heights and all the subterfuge around the two Nord Stream pipelines. The leading European benchmark is Dutch TTF Gas and it is priced in Euro per megawatt hour (€/MWh). Despite this benchmark price peaking in late August 2022 at €339, it is currently trading below €50, even lower than it was trading before this whole mess began. Meanwhile, Henry Hub gas prices in the U.S. also peaked in August at US$9.71/MMbtu (Metric Million British Thermal Unit) but iscurrently transacting around US$2.70, also below year-ago levels. Thus, it will probably come as no surprise that big natural gas producer ARC Resources Ltd. (TSX: ARX) in Canada and EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG), a leading gas producer in the U.S., are trading at pretty much the same price they were last year at this time. Or maybe it is a surprise as one might think they’d be down year over year based on the commodity price.

Oil and Refined Products Companies

The question is, did anyone’s share price benefit from this unfortunate event? There were a few that I found and they were all oil and refined products related. The most well know name of the bunch is Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) which returned an impressive 41% excluding dividends over the last year. We all know Exxon is a behemoth, and there could be lots of reasons other than Russian supply disruptions that could have influenced the share price but other integrated global giants like Shell PLC (formerly Royal Dutch Shell) (LSE: RDSA | NYSE: SHEL) and BP plc (LSE: BP | NYSE: BP) all had similar one-year performances. Albeit they all had setbacks of some form in the last year due to the fact that they had to write off or choose to sell (for essentially zero) some Russian assets. Regardless, the large integrated oil companies outperformed the rest of the sector for the most part.

Tanker Stocks

But the big outperformers were the oil and refined product tanker stocks. The returns in this category were what I would have expected from the defense stocks, which as we discussed above, were relatively disappointing. There are many to choose from but I looked at two that I have traded in the past but did not have the foresight to continue holding them. The first company is Scorpio Tankers Inc. (NYSE: STNG), a Monaco-based international transporter of refined petroleum products with a fleet of 113 vessels. This stock returned a whopping 255% over the last 12 months.

The second company is Frontline Ltd. (NYSE: FRO) a Bermuda-based company providing marine transportation of crude oil and oil products with a fleet of roughly 70 tankers. Frontline returned 97% excluding dividends since the end of February 2022. This quote from Scorpio’s Q4, 2022 results pretty much sums up why this sector has performed as well as it has:

“…the volatility brought on by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has resulted in the implementation of sanctions on the export of Russian crude oil and refined petroleum products, has continued to disrupt supply chains for crude oil and refined petroleum products, changing volumes and trade routes, and thus increasing ton-mile demand for the seaborne transportation of refined petroleum products.”

Scorpio’s Q4/2022 vessel revenue increased 211% as a result and needless to say, the market paid attention even though I did not.

Today I’ve only scratched the surface of what ramifications the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had on markets and stocks around the world. What I truly hope is that I won’t be doing this again a year from now.

Whether you call it a special military operation, a preemptive strike, an armed incursion or an outright war, the impact of Putin’s actions in Ukraine are likely to have long-term, far reaching impacts on economies around the world, but none more so than that of Ukraine and Russia. I personally believe that Mr. Putin may have underestimated the fierce determination of the Ukrainian people and their military, as well as, the resolve of the majority of the Western world to send a message that what he has done is unacceptable. Looking beyond the short term ramifications of various sanctions and export bans (which we’ll briefly discuss later), the long term impact of his actions could result in a sizeable hole that could take years, if the country can ever dig itself out of.

The primary focus for my thesis today is the importance, if not complete reliance of the Russian economy on fossil fuels. According to this BBC article, oil and gas provided 39% of the Russian federal budget revenue and made up 60% of Russian exports in 2019. This Reuters article suggests that by 2020 oil & gas accounted for over 23% of Russian GDP. It also states that overseas trade made up 46% of Russia’s GDP according to the World Bank. Oil and gas provided more than half its exports, with metals accounting for 11%, chemicals about 8% and food products 7%. Despite Russia being one of the largest global suppliers of wheat, fertilizer and a few other commodities, it’s oil and gas that grease the economic wheels and ultimately finance Mr. Putin’s war machine. Yet it seems Mr. Putin is willing to sacrifice his golden goose in pursuit of something that I’m not sure anyone in the world fully understands.

What do I mean by this? The theory is twofold. For starters, between Western sanctions being imposed on Russian energy and the denied but obvious “weaponization” of natural gas, Europe is rapidly advancing its move to alternative energy sources and ultimately renewable energy. Thus if/when this all settles down and things head back to pre-war type of activity, Russia’s fossil fuels could be worth a lot less due to a combination of demand destruction and more reliable suppliers. In particular, only 13% of the world’s natural gas is moved by tankers and the rest by pipelines. Russia has spent a lot of time and money developing the infrastructure to deliver gas to Europe that can’t readily be replaced to deliver comparable volumes to China, India or whoever is willing to do business with them. And without a lot of foreign investment and LNG expertise, it could be difficult for Russia to access global natural gas markets anywhere.

Following on from the European move away from fossil fuels to renewable energy (of note, I’m talking years not months). As global demand for fossil fuels begins to roll over, I’m pretty sure Middle East oil producers will be the last ones standing and Russia will still “lose” both market share and netback pricing. If Russia is relying on China to buy all their commodities they are likely in for a rude awakening because China tends to look out for #1 and is more than happy to put the screws to anyone who is in a weak bargaining position. My understanding is that today both China and India are already paying significant discounts to WTI or Brent prices for Russian crude, a lot more than the typical quality discount (similar to the heavy oil differential we see for a lot of Canadian crude). That will likely only get more punitive if the world moves to an oil supply surplus and customers have more choice over what regime they are willing to support.

As for what’s going on today, we see things like export bans impacting car and airplane parts. Russian car production, which accounts for over 600,000 Russian workers, is down over 90% in the last 6 months. It has led to Russia easing safety measures to allow cars be built and sold without airbags and anti-lock brakes amongst other measures. Russia’s commercial aircraft fleet is comprised of around 55%-60% of foreign built aircraft (primarily Boeing and Airbus) which are no longer providing parts or maintenance services meaning at some point there will probably be a dramatic drop in air travel capacity. This could have a significant impact on the economy given that over 50% of Russian GDP comes from the service industry which includes hotel and catering services, as well as culture and entertainment. Tough to see the service sector picking up the slack if people find it harder and harder to get from point A to point B.

Looking even further ahead into the future, sanctions and a lack of foreign investment today are likely to make things a lot harder for Russia to be able to develop its own renewable energy industry, albeit they do have most of the raw materials. This puts the country and the economy further in the hole as it relies on the rest of the world for technologies and investment to “catch up”, assuming renewable technologies achieve their goal of not just being better for the environment, but a far more economic source of energy.

I don’t have a crystal ball and I have no idea how this whole situation plays out. However, I find it hard to imagine a scenario where in 5 years from now Russia’s economy is in better shape than it was prior to February 24. And the Russian people have one person to “thank” for that.

In a recent InvestorIntel interview, Tracy Weslosky interviews Hallgarten & Company’s Principal and Mining Strategist Christopher Ecclestone about the impact of the Ukrainian invasion on the resource sector. In a follow-up to a previous interview, Christopher starts with: “Everyone thought it would be over shortly, and in fact, it’s dragged on — and so that means that the implications have very much changed now.”

With commentary on sanctions, Russia being paid in rubles for oil and gas, Christopher takes on the impact to the global nickel, platinum, and palladium markets. Further discussions on Russia and Kazakhstan being our dominant suppliers of uranium, he provides a compelling argument on how other companies and countries may be a ‘leaky door’ for Russians sidestepping the intended impact of economic sanctions.

The full interview, which may also be viewed on the InvestorIntel YouTube channel (click here to subscribe), may be accessed if you click here.

About Hallgarten & Company

Hallgarten & Company was founded in 2003 by the former partners of a well-known economic think-tank. Their output encompasses top-down and bottom-up research from a Classical Economic (Austrian School) perspective. Over the years, the team has successfully picked trends using macroeconomic underpinnings to guide investors through the treacherous waters of the markets. It was only natural, in light of the focus of Classical Economics upon the “real value” of monetary assets that the firm’s strengths should ultimately have become evident in resources sectors and projections of commodity trends.

Hallgarten & Company has advised and managed portfolios of offshore and onshore hedge funds.

Hallgarten also provides consultancy services on Latin American economic, politics and corporate matters including the production of bespoke research.

Hallgarten research is now available on Bloomberg and FactSet.

To learn more about Hallgarten & Company, click here

 

The big question right now is what will Putin do next? Last week U.S President Biden banned Russian oil and gas imports. Will Russia respond by banning uranium exports to the USA? That would certainly cause a huge drama given that Russia largely controls the uranium market (41% of supply from Kazakhstan, 6% from Russia) and the USA’s dependence on uranium to power 19% of the electricity grid and a significant part of its navy which is nuclear powered.

In anticipation of a possible Russian uranium export ban or supply shock, the uranium price has been moving higher since the war began. At the current uranium price of US$60/lb the outlook for uranium producers is looking dramatically improved.

Uranium prices have spiked higher since the Russia-Ukraine war began on February 24, 2022

Source: Trading Economics

Ur-Energy Inc. (NYSE American: URG | TSX: URE) is among the top two U.S uranium producers (when operational). Ur-Energy operates their flagship Lost Creek ‘in-situ recovery’ uranium mine and facility in south-central Wyoming, USA. The Lost Creek Mine and facility has been on care and maintenance awaiting higher uranium prices. Ur-Energy also owns several other projects including the Shirley Basin Project (construction ready), Lucky Mc Mine, and Last Soldier uranium projects in the USA as well as the Excel Gold Project in Nevada, USA.

A summary of U-Energy’s uranium projects in the USA

Source: Ur-Energy website

The recent good news for Ur-Energy investors can be summed up from the following two key announcements:

1. November 1, 2021 – Ur-Energy announces Lost Creek development program to advance readiness to ramp up uranium production. Ur-Energy stated: “We are pleased to announce the commencement of a development program at Lost Creek that will advance us from reduced operations to full production-ready status…… As of October 27, 2021, we had more than $40 million in cash and 285,000 pounds of U.S. produced U₃O₈ in inventory worth approximately $13.4 million, stored at the conversion facility.”
2. March 9, 2022 – “The economic analyses within the Lost Creek report continue to support the potential viability of the property. Total future life of mine (LoM) production (without additional exploration) is modeled to be 12.3 million pounds from 2022 to 2036 with LoM operating costs estimated to be $16.34 per pound. All in, the estimated total costs per pound, including royalties and extraction taxes, is estimated at $33.61 per pound before income tax of $8.72 per pound. Pricing used in the analysis ranged from $50.80 to $66.04 per pound……The Property has a calculated before tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 72.2 percent and a before tax net present value (NPV) of $210.9 million applying an 8% discount rate. When income taxes are included in the calculation, the after-tax IRR is 66.8 percent and the after tax NPV is $156.8 million.”

Note: Bold emphasis by the author.

Lost Creek update

Minimal controlled production continued at Lost Creek throughout 2021 in recognition of market conditions. Ur-Energy has all required permits for operations within the first three mine units at Lost Creek and expects to have the final permit to allow operations within the HJ and KM Horizon at LC East and additional mine units at Lost Creek this year. Ur-Energy is in the process of obtaining remaining additional amendments to Lost Creek authorizations for expansion of the Lost Creek Mine.

Lost Creek recently received an amendment to its license allowing expansion of mining activities within the existing Lost Creek Project and the adjacent LC East Project. The license now allows annual plant production of up to 2.2 million pounds U₃O₈, which includes wellfield of up to 1.2 million pounds U₃O₈ and toll processing of up to 1 million pounds U₃O₈. Additional approvals (as referenced above) for this expansion are expected in H2 2021.

At the current uranium price of US$60/lb it looks highly likely we will very soon hear an announcement of Lost Creek production restarting.

Shirley Basin update

In addition to Lost Creek, Ur-Energy can bring on their Shirley Basin Project. It has a before tax IRR of 105.6% and NPV8% of $129.7 million. Ur-Energy has all major permits and authorizations to begin construction at Shirley Basin, the Company’s second in situ recovery uranium facility in Wyoming, USA.

2021 year end results

Ur-Energy’s 2021 results are not important given that there was virtually zero (251 pounds of U₃O₈) uranium production and no sales. Ur-Energy reported: “As of December 31, 2021, we had cash resources consisting of cash and cash equivalents of $46.2 million. No sales of U₃O₈ were necessary in 2021. The Company had a net loss of $22.9 million or $0.12 per common share.”

Ur-Energy, new CEO, John Cash stated:

“We are encouraged by the dramatic increase in domestic and global support for nuclear power, as it is increasingly recognized as the only plausible solution to climate change. Ur-Energy is in the enviable position of being able to quickly ramp up and participate in an improving uranium market and, in addition, we could immediately deliver up to 284,000 pounds U₃O₈ into the Uranium Reserve Program, currently being established by the U.S. Department of Energy. On March 3, 2022, we had $44.7 million in cash, plus our ready to sell U.S. produced inventory, worth approximately $14.4 million at recent spot prices. Additionally, we continue to advance the construction of header house 2‑4 to expedite production when market signals allow us to ramp up at Lost Creek.”

Closing remarks

Uncertainty of uranium supply from Russia and Russian controlled sources such as Kazakhstan is leading to a surge in uranium prices, up almost 50% in the past 3 weeks since the Russia-Ukraine war commenced.

At current prices, Ur-Energy’s two key projects Lost Creek and Shirley Basin would be highly profitable as per recent economic studies done at uranium prices similar to today’s price. All of this means it is highly likely we will soon see the resumption of uranium production by Ur-Energy at Lost Creek Mine in the near term. It also times well with the U.S.’s intentions to build up a reserve of uranium and the recent White House Fact Sheet aiming to build USA supply chains for key materials.

For investors looking at a hedge against the war, then look no further than uranium. And if Putin bans exports of Russian controlled uranium to the USA and others, then expect to see uranium prices closer to US$100/lb, than to today’s price of US$60/lb.

Ur-Energy trades on a market cap of US$380 million. Looks appealing.