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Technology Metals Report (02.23.2024): Yellen to Visit Chile for Critical Minerals and Biden’s EV Dreams Are a Nightmare for Tesla

Welcome to the latest issue of the Technology Metals Report (TMR), brought to you by the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI). In this edition, we compile the most impactful stories shared by our members over the past week, reflecting the dynamic and evolving nature of the critical minerals and technology metals industry. From the Inflation Reduction Act’s challenges for the American EV industry to China’s lithium market developments and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s strategic visit to Chile, our report covers a wide array of developments crucial for stakeholders. The unveiling of Tesla Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) lithium refinery in Texas, alongside CATL’s confirmation of its lithium mine’s normal operations, paints a picture of the industry’s efforts to navigate through pricing volatilities, supply chain complexities, and geopolitical tensions. Moreover, the significant moves by major financial institutions in the uranium market and Gecamines’ strategic overhaul in the DRC underline the shifting paradigms in the mining and investment landscapes of technology metals.

This TMR report also highlights the broader implications of these developments on the global stage, including efforts to diminish reliance on China for essential metals, the impact of Tesla’s pricing strategies on the used EV market, and the strategic dialogues around rare earths markets. The visit by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Chile is spotlighted as a key initiative to bolster ties around critical minerals, emphasizing the urgency of diversifying supply chains amid growing demands for green transition materials. Additionally, the narrative around the challenges posed by the Inflation Reduction Act for Tesla and the US car industry, coupled with BHP’s cautionary stance on the Australian nickel sector, illustrates the complex interplay between policy, market dynamics, and strategic resource management. As we delve into these stories, our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview that informs and stimulates discussion among policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders, navigating the intricate pathways towards a sustainable and competitive future for critical minerals and technology metals.

MP Materials swings to quarterly loss on falling rare earths prices (February 22, 2024, Source) — MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) reported a fourth-quarter loss, attributed to declining rare earths prices and increased production costs, despite expectations of a larger deficit. Amidst unsuccessful merger discussions with Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (ASX: LYC) and competition from Chinese firms, CEO Jim Litinsky emphasized the potential for mutual learning and cost reduction among companies. Despite a 2.7% drop in shares on Thursday, a slight recovery was observed in after-hours trading. The company experienced a significant shift from previous year’s profit to a $16.3 million loss. Sales of rare earths concentrate to China decreased by 34% due to lower production at its Mountain Pass mine, exacerbated by facility issues. However, MP is advancing in refining rare earths domestically, with ongoing projects in California and Texas, and has initiated production in a new facility in Vietnam.

Stalling the American EV Industry: The Unintended Consequences of the Inflation Reduction Act’s Attempt to Bypass China for Critical Minerals (February 22, 2024, Source) — The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), integral to President Joe Biden’s environmental strategy, seeks to transition the American automotive industry towards a US-centric electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, reducing reliance on Chinese materials. This shift, exemplified by initiatives like Tesla Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) lithium refinery in Texas, aims to enhance the competitiveness of American-made EVs. However, the IRA’s stringent requirements for sourcing materials domestically or from approved countries by 2024 pose significant challenges, complicating efforts by major manufacturers to maintain affordability and quality. Jack Lifton, an expert in the field, highlights the complexity of creating a new EV supply infrastructure and the strategic challenges of overtaking China’s advanced position in the EV sector. The article emphasizes that realizing the IRA’s vision demands innovation, strategic foresight, and time, presenting both obstacles and opportunities for the U.S. automotive industry in its quest for sustainability and energy independence.

Battery factories: Europe’s mechanical engineering companies are lagging behind (February 22, 2024, Source) — The report “Battery Manufacturing 2030: Collaborating at Warp Speed” by Porsche Consulting and the German Engineering Federation (VDMA) highlights the expansion of battery factories, with around 200 set to be constructed worldwide in the next decade, predominantly in Europe. Despite this growth, European mechanical engineering firms are trailing behind their Asian counterparts, particularly in supplying high-tech equipment for these factories, with only 8% of such technology currently coming from Europe. This low market share limits Europe’s influence on technical development in the battery sector. The study suggests that to avoid technological dependency and enhance their market position, European companies must aim for at least a 20% market share, requiring significant growth and collaboration to offer integrated factory solutions competitive with turnkey plants from China. The study emphasizes the potential for growth and the critical need for European firms to innovate and collaborate to secure a substantial stake in the rapidly expanding battery production technology market, estimated at 300 billion euros by 2030.

“This is a very important article, because it illustrates that the EV battery manufacturing industry has become technologically dependent upon Chinese manufacturing technology for efficient and economical production. Is this the beginning of the end for any attempt by the non-Chinese world to catch up? No, we’ve already reached that point, and what other manufacturing industries in the West are circling the drain?” – Jack Lifton, CMI Co-Chair & Co-Founder

China’s CATL says its lithium mine operating normally (February 22, 2024, Source) — Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL) has confirmed that its lithium mine in Jiangxi province is operating normally, amidst market speculation of a halt due to falling lithium prices. The Jianxiawo mine, rich in hard rock lepidolite and a subsidiary of CATL, faced rumors of reduced or stopped production due to economic challenges. However, CATL asserts production is ongoing as planned, despite market rumors suggesting otherwise. After the Lunar New Year holiday, it was noted that only one of two production lines resumed operation. The mine, which began phase-one production recently, aims for a 200,000 tons capacity of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) upon completion of all phases. Despite high production costs compared to current market prices, analysts predict significantly lower output this year than initially expected, with potential delays in future expansion due to these costs. The speculation had earlier boosted Australian lithium stocks.

China’s lithium carbonate futures jump on talk of environmental crackdown (February 21, 2024, Source) — On Wednesday, China’s lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a significant rally, driven by market speculation regarding potential environmental inspections in a key production area. This speculation raised concerns about possible output restrictions, leading to a 6.35% increase in the most-active July contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, reaching 99,600 yuan per metric ton. Speculation centered around Yichun, a major lithium production city in Jiangxi province, facing environmental checks that could limit operations for producers failing to properly manage lithium slag. Despite these rumors, major producers in Jiangxi continued their operations as planned, with some undergoing scheduled maintenance. The price surge, reflecting concerns over supply constraints, followed a rally in Australian lithium stocks prompted by rumors that Chinese battery maker CATL had closed its Jianxiawo mine.

Yellen to Visit Chile in Push to Boost Ties on Critical Minerals  (February 21, 2024, Source) — US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to visit Chile next week as part of an effort to strengthen the United States’ ties with Chile, focusing on the South American nation’s significant role in the green transition through its contribution to renewable energy policies and as a supplier of critical minerals. This visit is a strategic move by the US to diversify its critical minerals supply chain and reduce its dependence on China, which currently leads the market for essential metals necessary for energy transition technologies. Chile, possessing one of the world’s largest lithium reserves, is seeking foreign investment to expand its capacity within the global battery supply chain. The visit, which follows Yellen’s attendance at a G20 finance ministers’ meeting in Sao Paulo, aims to deepen bilateral economic relations, particularly in the context of Chile’s potential to benefit from President Biden’s green stimulus program due to a free-trade agreement with the US, thereby supporting North American electric vehicle production.

Tesla’s price cuts are driving down car values so much that EV makers are sending checks to leasing firms to compensate them (February 21, 2024, Source) —  Tesla’s price reductions have significantly lowered the resale value of used electric vehicles (EVs), prompting automakers to issue compensation to leasing companies like Ayvens to cover these losses. This adjustment comes as the industry is pushed to sell more EVs to avoid fines, with leasing firms seeking protections against further depreciation in the $1.2 trillion second-hand car market. The demand for used EVs fell due to Tesla’s price cuts, affecting companies that play a vital role in the corporate car market. To mitigate risks of depreciation, negotiations for buyback agreements and re-leasing options are underway. Regulatory pressures for lower fleet emissions compound the issue, as unstable used-EV pricing challenges the transition to electric mobility by 2035. Corporate shifts, like SAP SE discontinuing Teslas for employees, underscore the broader impacts of volatile EV pricing on the industry.

Biden’s EV Dreams Are a Nightmare for Tesla and the US Car Industry (February 20, 2024, Source) — The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), initiated by President Joe Biden to foster a US-centric electric vehicle (EV) supply chain and reduce reliance on Chinese components, poses significant challenges for Tesla and other American car manufacturers. Despite Tesla’s initial steps towards compliance, including sourcing batteries from within the US and building a lithium refinery in Texas, the company’s substantial procurement of Chinese lithium-ion batteries underscores the complexity of shifting away from China’s supply network. The IRA mandates stringent sourcing requirements for battery components and raw materials, aiming to cut China’s dominance in the EV sector. However, these measures have compelled carmakers to navigate a difficult transition, risking the affordability and competitiveness of EVs. As Tesla, GM, Ford, and others strive to adapt to these evolving standards and develop alternative supply chains, they face the daunting task of balancing economic, environmental, and strategic objectives in a rapidly changing global market dominated by geopolitical tensions and the strategic distribution of critical minerals.

Goldman, hedge funds step up activity in physical uranium as prices spike (February 20, 2024, Source) — Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Macquarie, along with some hedge funds, are increasingly engaging in the uranium market, driven by a spike in uranium prices to 16-year highs. While many banks remain cautious, these institutions are actively trading physical uranium and, in Goldman’s case, its options. This shift is fueled by utilities’ need for new supplies amid shortages. The interest in uranium is also growing among hedge funds and financial institutions, a notable change after the sector’s stagnation post-Fukushima disaster. Uranium prices have doubled over the past year, reaching $102 a pound, prompted by production cuts from top producers and a renewed interest in nuclear energy as a means to reduce carbon emissions. Goldman Sachs has also introduced options on physical uranium for hedge funds, marking a significant development in the market. This increased activity reflects a broader appeal of uranium to financial investors, with notable investments in physical uranium as well as equities related to the sector.

Gecamines plans overhaul of mining JVs in world’s top cobalt supplier (February 20, 2024, Source) — Gecamines, the state miner of the Democratic Republic of Congo, is seeking to renegotiate terms of its copper and cobalt joint ventures to increase its stakes and gain more control. Aiming to leverage global demand for minerals essential for the green energy transition, Gecamines plans to secure better off-take contracts and ensure local representation on venture boards for improved asset management. The strategy addresses past oversights, focusing on rectifying prolonged indebtedness and insufficient investment by some partners. Recent deals, like the one with China’s CMOC Group, exemplify Gecamines’ efforts towards securing equitable terms, demonstrating a push for enhanced returns, community benefits, and transparency in the world’s top cobalt supplier and a leading copper producer.

Industry Leaders Lifton and Karayannopoulos China’s Influence on Rare Earth Prices and Markets Today (February 19, 2024, Source) — In an insightful interview, Jack Lifton and Constantine Karayannopoulos delve into the complexities of the rare earths market. Karayannopoulos, wary of current market trends, notes a decline in prices for key elements like neodymium and praseodymium and maintains a cautious outlook due to the industry’s cyclical nature. Lifton points out the impact of China’s economic struggles on low rare earth prices, advocating for strategic investments in mining and processing at this juncture. Both experts discuss the discrepancy between market expectations and reality, particularly in the context of China’s economic growth and the slower-than-anticipated expansion of its magnet industry, vital for electric vehicle production. They emphasize the significance of investing in raw materials and processing to navigate and leverage China’s market dominance effectively, offering a comprehensive view on economic trends, geopolitical strategies, and investment opportunities in the rare earths sector.

BHP says Australian support for nickel miners ‘may not be enough’ to save industry (February 19, 2024, Source) —  BHP Group (ASX: BHP | NYSE: BHP) warned that Australian government efforts to support the nickel industry might not suffice amid challenges, as a write-off in its nickel operations led to a nearly 90% drop in first-half net profit. The crisis in Australia’s nickel industry is due to a price collapse from a supply glut in Indonesia. Despite government measures like production tax credits and royalty relief, BHP’s CEO, Mike Henry, suggested these might be inadequate due to structural market changes. BHP, facing a $3.5 billion pre-tax impairment charge on its Nickel West operation, is contemplating suspending its activities there, despite healthy nickel demand from the electric vehicle sector. However, Henry highlighted copper, potash, and iron ore as stronger growth areas for BHP. The company announced a higher-than-expected interim dividend, reflecting robust copper and iron ore performance, and anticipates stability in commodity demand from China and India.

US Bid to Loosen China’s Grip on Key Metals for EVs Is Stalling (February 19, 2024, Source) — The U.S. is striving to diminish its reliance on China for crucial metals like gallium and germanium, vital for electric vehicles and military technology. Efforts have been hampered by the diminished efficacy of the U.S. National Defense Stockpile and budget cuts, revealing vulnerabilities to supply shocks. Despite the Biden administration’s initiatives to diversify metal sources through international deals and domestic projects, China’s control over the global metal supply remains strong. Recent legislative reforms aim to enhance strategic stockpiling and procurement flexibility, but challenges in establishing a coherent strategy and securing stable mineral supplies continue. The situation underscores the complex dynamics of global supply chains and the critical nature of these metals for technological and defense applications.

JPMorgan, State Street quit climate group, BlackRock steps back (February 15, 2024, Source) — JPMorgan Chase and State Street’s investment arms exited the Climate Action 100+ coalition, a global investor group advocating for reduced emissions, withdrawing nearly $14 trillion in assets from climate change initiatives. BlackRock scaled back its participation by shifting its membership to its international arm. These moves follow the coalition’s request for members to intensify actions against companies lagging in emission reductions. Despite political pressure from Republican politicians accusing financial firms of antitrust and fiduciary duty breaches, none cited politics as a reason for their departure. State Street cited conflicts with the coalition’s new priorities, which include engaging policymakers and public emission reduction commitments, as misaligned with its independent approach. BlackRock aims to maintain independence while prioritizing climate goals for its clients.

Investor.News Critical Minerals Media Coverage:

  • February 22, 2024 – Stalling the American EV Industry: The Unintended Consequences of the Inflation Reduction Act’s Attempt to Bypass China for Critical Minerals https://bit.ly/3T8IpYE
  • February 22, 2024 – Revolutionizing Energy Storage with NEO Battery Materials’ Strategic Advances in Silicon Anode Technology https://bit.ly/3T5rO80

Investor.News Critical Minerals Videos:

  • Industry Leaders Lifton and Karayannopoulos China’s Influence on Rare Earth Prices and Markets Today https://bit.ly/3SNSuZk

Critical Minerals IN8.Pro Member News Releases:

  • February 22, 2024 – American Rare Earths Announces A$13.5m Placement to advance Halleck Creek Project https://bit.ly/3wuU1fB
  • February 22, 2024 – First Phosphate Project Receives Letter of Support from Mario Simard, Canadian Parliamentary Deputy for the Riding of Jonquière, Québec https://bit.ly/3SQAP3i
  • February 21, 2024 – Nano One Adds 4 More Lithium Battery Manufacturing Patents in Asia – Boosts Total to 40 https://bit.ly/3I6EmFL
  • February 21, 2024 – Power Nickel Expands on High Grade Cu-Pd-Pt-Au-Ag Zone 5km northeast of its Main Nisk Deposit https://bit.ly/433eJj3
  • February 20, 2024 – American Clean Resources Group Acquires SWIS Community, LLC, an Environmental Water Technology Company https://bit.ly/3T6iSis
  • February 20, 2024 – First Phosphate Provides Update on Plans for a Purified Phosphoric Acid Plant at Port Saguenay, Quebec https://bit.ly/4bINVs4
  • February 20, 2024 – Western Uranium & Vanadium Receives over $4.6M from Warrant Exercises https://bit.ly/3UI3DxH
  • February 20, 2024 – Appia Unveils Significant REE, Cobalt and Scandium Assay Results From 47 RC Drill Holes at the Buriti Target Within Its PCH IAC REE Project, Brazil https://bit.ly/3ST4GIG
  • February 20, 2024 – Fathom Nickel Announces the Closing of Its Second and Final Tranche of Private Placement https://bit.ly/3wjSSr7
  • February 20, 2024 – Canadian GoldCamps to Earn 50% of Murphy Lake for $10M Exploration Spend https://bit.ly/4bBbtz0

To become a Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) member, click here




Technology Metals Report (02.11.2024): Constantine Karayannopoulos Resurfaces, Landmark $18.8 Billion Cathode Supply Deal in Tennessee, and Canada Invests in Ucore

Welcome to the latest Technology Metals Report (TMR) where we highlight the top news stories that members of the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) have forwarded to us in the last week. Key highlights in this Technology Metals Report include significant developments such as Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp. enriching its advisory committee with the appointment of industry veteran Constantine Karayannopoulos, a move poised to strengthen its strategic capabilities in the critical minerals sector. Additionally, stories highlighted last week include Ford Motor Company’s substantial $4.7 billion loss in its electric vehicle (EV) segment for 2023, a figure that underscores the economic challenges facing companies transitioning to electric mobility.

Moreover, this edition of the TMR delves into Bora Mining Services’ strategic acquisition in the Steenkampskraal Monazite Mine and the landmark $18.8 billion cathode supply deal between General Motors and LG Chem, both of which underscore the strategic efforts to secure critical materials for the burgeoning EV market. The report also examines Hitachi Construction Machinery’s innovations with its all-electric dump truck prototype, signaling a push towards sustainability in mining operations. Commentary on the EV market by industry expert Jack Lifton highlights the sector’s challenges and misalignments with consumer preferences. Furthermore, Canada’s advancement over China in the BloombergNEF Global Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Ranking and the discontinuation of merger talks between Lynas Rare Earths and MP Materials are highlighted, reflecting the dynamic nature and strategic maneuvers within the global critical minerals and electric vehicle sectors.

Appia Appoints Constantine Karayannopoulos as New Member to Its Critical Minerals Advisory Committee (February 9, 2024, Source) — Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp. (CSE: API | OTCQX: APAAF) announced the appointment of Constantine Karayannopoulos to its Advisory Committee, alongside rare earths experts Jack Lifton and Don Hains. Karayannopoulos, with a 30-year career in the rare earth and critical minerals sectors, including as President and CEO of Neo Performance Materials Inc. (TSX: NEO), brings significant expertise to Appia. His background includes pivotal roles in the industry, such as leading the first foreign company in China’s Rare Earth industry and co-founding Neo Lithium Corp. His appointment, starting February 1, 2024, is set to enhance Appia’s strategic capabilities in the critical minerals sector, supported by his consulting company, Kloni Inc. Appia has granted 300,000 options to Kloni Inc. as part of this agreement.

Rare Earths Discovery Near Wheatland So Big It Could Be World Leader (February 7, 2024, Source) — American Rare Earths Limited (ASX: ARR | OTCQB: ARRNF) has made a groundbreaking discovery near Wheatland, Wyoming, revealing 2.34 billion metric tons of rare earth minerals, significantly surpassing initial estimates and other local discoveries. This positions Wyoming as a key player in reducing reliance on China’s rare earth market, vital for green energy technologies. With only 25% of their land explored, the potential for further discoveries is immense. The company, part of an Australian enterprise, plans scalable mining operations to meet the high global demand. This development, along with other explorations in Wyoming, could transform the U.S. into a major source of rare earth minerals, essential for a range of advanced technologies. Further economic and development projections are anticipated, underlining Wyoming’s emerging significance in the global rare earth industry.

Ford Lost $4.7B On EVs Last Year, Or About $64,731 For Every EV It Sold (February 7, 2024, Source) — Ford Motor Company’s venture into electric vehicles (EVs) in 2023 resulted in a significant financial loss, overshadowing its overall profits for the year. The company experienced an operating loss of $4.7 billion from its EV business, termed as “Model e,” despite achieving a net income of $4.3 billion on $176 billion revenue. This loss equates to approximately $64,731 for each of the 72,608 EVs sold last year, demonstrating the financial challenge of transitioning to electric mobility. The loss was attributed to competitive pricing, strategic investments in new EV development, and exceeded Ford’s initial projections. The automotive giant’s commitment to EVs, which includes a $50 billion investment plan, has been questioned in light of these results. Additionally, Ford’s EV production adjustments and the broader automotive industry’s challenges with EV demand and profitability highlight the difficulties in achieving widespread EV adoption. This situation reflects broader market trends and concerns over the viability and appeal of EVs, particularly in markets dominated by conventional vehicles and specific demographic niches.

Bora Mining Acquires Share in Steenkampskraal Monazite Mine (February 7, 2024, Source) — Bora Mining Services (BMS) has acquired a share in Steenkampskraal Monazite Mine (SMM), a high-grade rare earths and thorium mine, to commence operations in early 2024. With a significant investment, including a R1 billion infrastructure, BMS aims to refurbish and develop the mine, leveraging its expertise in mining operations. The mine boasts an impressive 14.5% average grade of total rare earth oxides, with potential for resource expansion. The partnership focuses on producing monazite concentrate initially, with plans to extend production to mixed rare earth carbonate and thorium. The project has received positive feedback from regulatory bodies and has a dynamic growth strategy across three phases, eventually aiming to produce individual rare earth oxides. The initiative is expected to cater to global rare earth demands, with thorium also highlighted for its safety and potential in cancer therapy.

South Korea’s LG Chem signs $19 bln cathode supply deal with General Motors (February 7, 2024, Source) — General Motors (GM) and South Korea’s LG Chem have signed a $18.8 billion deal for cathode material supply, enhancing GM’s electric vehicle (EV) production chain from 2026 to 2035. This partnership aims to support the production of 5 million high-performance EVs, with LG Chem’s Tennessee plant serving as a cornerstone for a localized supply chain. The agreement, building on a prior commitment for over 950,000 tons of Cathode Active Material, signifies a major step towards sustainable EV production. The Tennessee facility, set to be America’s largest cathode plant, will primarily supply Ultium Cells LLC, a GM and LG Energy Solutions joint venture, potentially extending to other GM EV projects. This move aligns with U.S. Inflation Reduction Act criteria, emphasizing local supply chain benefits.

Hitachi launches final tests of its electric dump truck (February 6, 2024, Source) — Hitachi Construction Machinery has introduced a prototype of its all-electric dump truck, which is now undergoing final testing at a copper-gold mine in Zambia. Based on the EH4000AC-3 model with a 221-tonne payload, this electric version includes ABB’s battery technology and converters. Unlike its diesel counterpart, it operates on internal batteries on level ground and external trolley power uphill, while regenerative braking recharges the battery downhill. Performance details are pending, but the combustion engine model’s specs offer insight. This initiative, started in 2021 by Hitachi and ABB, aims to meet electric dump truck demand in mining and reduce emissions, highlighting a shift towards electrification in heavy machinery and contributing to environmental sustainability.

Riding the EV Revolution Rollercoaster Amid the West’s Electric Car Climbdown (February 5, 2024, Source) — Jack Lifton’s critique on the electric vehicle (EV) industry highlights the clash between government strategies and market dynamics, alongside the competitive pressure from Chinese manufacturers. He points out major manufacturers like Renault and Volvo retreating from ambitious EV projects due to mismatches in market demand and production costs. Jack also observes a consumer shift back to petrol models, suggesting a misalignment between EV production and consumer preferences. Advocating for hybrids, he emphasizes the need for adaptability, innovation, and market responsiveness. His insights stress the importance of aligning visionary goals with practical market demands and competitive challenges, underlining the complexity of navigating the evolving EV landscape with agility and foresight.

South African platinum industry could shed up to 7,000 jobs to cut costs (February 5, 2024, Source) — The South African platinum industry, responsible for about 70% of the world’s mined platinum, may cut 4,000 to 7,000 jobs due to restructuring amid high costs and declining prices. The Minerals Council highlighted this at the Investing in African Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town, noting the impact of the shift towards electric vehicles and the falling demand for platinum group metals (PGMs) used in traditional combustion engines. High electricity and labor costs, along with a 40% and 15% drop in palladium and platinum prices respectively, have pressured miners. Major companies like Anglo American Platinum and Sibanye Stillwater are considering operation restructuring and job cuts to reduce expenses, facing challenges from lower ore grades and rising input costs.

China Drops to Second in BloombergNEF’s Global Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Ranking as Canada Comes Out on Top (February 5, 2024, Source) — Canada has taken the top spot in BloombergNEF’s Global Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Ranking, outpacing China due to its ample raw materials, policy support, and strong ties with the US auto industry. This represents a significant shift, emphasizing the increasing importance of sustainability and ESG practices in the sector. North America shines in the rankings, with policy initiatives like the US Inflation Reduction Act bolstering the region’s standing. Mexico notably rose nine spots, benefiting from its industrial base and potential US policy impacts. Global investment in clean energy supply chains hit $135 billion, highlighting the sector’s growth and the evolving dynamics of trade relations. The ranking assesses countries on raw materials, manufacturing, demand, ESG, and innovation, reflecting the global push towards sustainable energy solutions.

Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths quits tie-up talks with MP Materials (February 5, 2024, Source) — Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths and U.S.-based MP Materials terminated merger discussions amid valuation disagreements and strategic considerations. The potential union aimed to bolster supply chain diversification for critical minerals outside China, which commands the rare earth market. The talks’ cessation reflects the complexities of consolidating operations within the global rare earths industry, crucial for technology and defense sectors. Despite the strategic intent to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths, both companies faced hurdles, including technological challenges and anti-trust regulations. Lynas, with significant projects across Australia, Malaysia, and the U.S., and MP Materials, which relies on Chinese refining, concluded that the merger lacked sufficient synergies to proceed, underscoring the intricate dynamics of international rare earths commerce.

Canada Announces Over $4 million to Support Critical Minerals Value Chains and Create Good Jobs in Ontario (February 5, 2024, Source) — Canada is investing $4.2 million in Ucore Rare Metals Inc. through the Critical Minerals Research, Development, and Demonstration (CMRDD) program to enhance the country’s capabilities in producing critical minerals essential for the green and digital economy. This investment, announced by Mark Gerretsen, aims to scale up Ucore’s rare earth element separation technology, pivotal for electric vehicle motors and renewable energy technologies. It promotes domestic processing, reducing reliance on foreign separation and bolstering Canada’s electric vehicle value chain. This initiative will create employment, including for Indigenous communities, and support Canadian technological advancements in sustainable practices. It aligns with Canada’s commitment to a cleaner, low-carbon economy by fostering competitive value chains and economic growth.

Germany’s dream of 15 million electric vehicles is fading away (February 3, 2024, Source) — At a Berlin auto industry event, BMW CEO Oliver Zipse and Transport Minister Volker Wissing highlighted the slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Germany. Despite previous optimism, challenges such as a saturated high-end market, lack of affordable options, dwindling government incentives, and inadequate charging infrastructure have emerged. With EV sales projected to drop and the ambitious goal of 15 million EVs by 2030 now looking unrealistic, the industry faces a pivotal moment. The need for diversified vehicle power solutions, including combustion, hybrid, and hydrogen vehicles, becomes apparent. Analysts are skeptical about meeting emissions targets without further subsidies, pointing to a broader slowdown that could impact investment and long-term environmental goals.

Special thanks to the Critical Minerals Institute – Leading the Critical Minerals Sector, for more information or to send us a highlighted industry story you think we need to include in our weekly Technology Metals Report, please send to Raj Shah – my co-editor, at [email protected]. Thank you.

Investor.News Critical Minerals Media Coverage:

  • February 6, 2024 – Global Winds: Opening the Door for a New Middle Eastern Hegemon https://bit.ly/492BPbH
  • February 5, 2024 – Riding the EV Revolution Rollercoaster Amid the West’s Electric Car Climbdown https://bit.ly/42oLYNn
  • February 4, 2024 – Empowering Canadian Resource Exploration: The Strategic Role of Flow-Through Shares, and the Power of PDAC https://bit.ly/3uv4pmO

Investor.News Critical Minerals Videos:

  • February 8, 2024 – Jack Lifton and Panther Metals Darren Hazelwood on the “greenstone belt for VMS deposits” in Canada https://bit.ly/42zDzqv
  • February 8, 2024 – Fathom’s Ian Fraser on Rising Market Interest in Albert Lake and Nickel as a Critical Mineral https://bit.ly/49uxFcu
  • February 5, 2024 – Tawana Bain and ACRG’s Drive for a Sustainable American Supply Chain through Net-Zero Mineral Production https://bit.ly/4bnBcLg
  • February 5, 2024 – Terry Lynch on Power Nickel’s Ambitious 2024 Drilling Program at the Nisk Project in Nemaska https://bit.ly/49i7OEi
  • February 5, 2024 – Voyageur Pharmaceutical’s Brent Willis on Revolutionizing the Medical Imaging Industry, plus SmoothX https://bit.ly/3SsrlLt

Critical Minerals IN8.Pro Member News Releases:

  • February 9, 2024 – Ucore Announces Closing of Final Tranche of Upsized Debenture Offering https://bit.ly/49o07Na
  • February 9, 2024 – Appia Appoints Constantine Karayannopoulos as New Member to Its Critical Minerals Advisory Committee https://bit.ly/3OCnNVL
  • February 9, 2024 – American Rare Earths Limited: Appointment of Chairman – Richard Hudson https://bit.ly/3HU47Ji
  • February 8, 2024 – Auxico Announces Sampling Results From a Geological Report on the Minastyc Property https://bit.ly/3UAtsj3
  • February 8, 2024 – Fathom Announces Start of Drilling at Albert Lake Project https://bit.ly/499VW7K
  • February 8, 2024 – Appia Announces Outstanding Re-Assayed Diamond Drill Results Including 100 Metres Averaging 3,577 PPM TREO at Its PCH Ionic Clay Project, Brazil https://bit.ly/48dXQTs
  • February 7, 2024 – American Rare Earths Resource Estimate Increased by 64% https://bit.ly/3SuhAfU
  • February 7, 2024 – Imperial Mining Announces Shareholder Approval of Name Change to Scandium Canada Ltd. and Results of its 2024 Annual and Special Meeting https://bit.ly/49nE1tY
  • February 5, 2024 – Ucore Welcomes Canadian Government Officials to its Kingston Ontario CDF for an NRCan Funding Announcement https://bit.ly/495cTA3
  • February 5, 2024 – Nano One Provides Shareholder Update with Key Objectives for 2024 https://bit.ly/49mNgut



Technology Metals Report (02.02.2024): Rumors between MP and Lynas, Tesla EV Recall – the Rightsizing of Critical Minerals Begins?

Welcome to the latest Technology Metals Report (TMR), where we highlight the Top 10 news stories that members of the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) have forwarded to us over the last 2 weeks.

In early 2024, the rare earths sector is witnessing significant strategic movements amidst a backdrop of declining prices and geopolitical tensions. Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. and MP Materials Corp., key players outside China, are rumored to be considering a mega-merger in response to falling rare earth prices and to mitigate the impact of Chinese trade restrictions. This potential consolidation aims to strengthen their production capabilities and align with the Australian and US governments’ efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supplies, particularly for defense applications.

CMI’s Jack Lifton comments, “In the swirling rumors of a mega-merger between MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths, it’s clear that the OEM industry’s disdain for single sourcing of critical materials is being overlooked. Litinski is eager to deploy his capital before it devalues, while Lacaze eyes a boost in share price ahead of her retirement. This scenario is akin to two veterans of the trade, unadorned and stark, facing the harsh daylight. Both MP and Lynas are in a precarious position, each with a singular customer and seemingly devoid of new strategies to navigate the market’s tumultuous waters.”

Concurrently, the industry is adjusting to market corrections, as highlighted by the Critical Minerals Institute’s observations on the electric vehicle (EV) materials market, indicating a shift towards efficiency and cost management. Meanwhile, initiatives like Controlled Thermal Resources Holdings Inc.’s funding quest for its lithium brine project and Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp.‘s (CSE: API | OTCQX: APAAF) exploration successes underscore the ongoing diversification and expansion within the critical minerals domain. These developments reflect a broader industry trend towards securing resilient supply chains for critical minerals amidst fluctuating market dynamics and geopolitical pressures.

Also breaking news today, Tesla Inc.: The EV maker is recalling 2.2 million vehicles, or nearly all of its electric vehicles in the United States, due to incorrect font size on warning lights, which increases the risk of a crash, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said. This is more than the 2.03 million vehicles it recalled in the United States two months back, its biggest-ever such move at the time, to install new safeguards in its Autopilot advanced driver-assistance system. The latest recall includes vehicles across Tesla’s various models, including the Model S, Model X, 2017-2023 Model 3, Model Y, and 2024 Cybertruck vehicles, the NHTSA said. Separately, U.S. safety regulators said they have upgraded their probe into Tesla vehicles over power steering loss to an engineering analysis – a required step before they could potentially demand a recall.

Lynas linked to rare earths mega-merger as price falls bite (February 2, 2024, Source) —  Amid a sharp decline in rare earths prices and concerns over Chinese trade restrictions, there are speculations that Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (ASX: LYC) may be considering a merger with its New York-listed rival, MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP). Industry insiders suggest that the two companies, both leading non-China producers of essential rare earth materials used in defense and various industries, could be in talks to create a mega-merger. The exact details of the deal are unclear, given the current slump in rare earth prices and Western concerns about China’s dominant position in the supply chain. However, a potential merger between Lynas, based in Western Australia and Malaysia, and MP, operating in California’s Mountain Pass, aligns with efforts by the Australian and US governments to strengthen collaboration between their resource companies for critical minerals extraction and processing, reducing dependency on China. Both Lynas and MP have suffered significant stock price declines, and a merger could help them bolster production capabilities and meet growing demands, particularly from the US Department of Defense, which aims to reduce reliance on Chinese supplies. Referral, CMI Co-Chairman Jack Lifton

Critical Minerals “rightsizing” in reaction to governments’ efforts to regulate market (February 1, 2024, Source) — The critical minerals industry is undergoing significant changes in the electric vehicle (EV) materials market. Jack Lifton, Co-Chairman of the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI), views recent price declines in key EV component materials as a natural market correction rather than a disaster, emphasizing minimal regulatory intervention. Declining profits for industry leaders, including China Northern Rare Earth, result from overestimated EV demand, economic factors, and falling sales, especially in California. Lifton advises investors to focus on efficient, low-cost producers, particularly in neodymium. The January 2024 CMI Report notes the U.S. government’s plan to ban Pentagon battery purchases from major Chinese companies and hints at potential recovery in lithium prices. Lynas Rare Earths’ revenue drop reflects market trends but also strategic capacity expansion. In summary, the industry faces short-term challenges but underscores the importance of efficiency, cost management, and adaptability for long-term success. Source, Investor.News

GM, Stellantis-Backed Lithium Startup Seeks More Than $1 Billion for Brine Project (February 1, 2024, Source) — Controlled Thermal Resources Holdings Inc., (CTR) a US lithium startup backed by Stellantis N.V. (NYSE: STLA) and General Motors (NYSE: GM), seeks over $1 billion in funding for its California lithium brine project. This initiative defies the industry’s 80% drop in lithium prices since late 2022. CTR’s unconventional approach focuses on geothermal brine deposits, seen as a potential future lithium supply source once technology challenges are overcome. This aligns with US government efforts to establish a domestic EV commodity supply chain. The funding plan includes equity and debt financing, with Goldman Sachs as the lead bank. Stellantis and GM have previously invested significantly in CTR to secure lithium for EV production. Referral, CMI Co-Chairman Jack Lifton

Attention set on rare earths in Canada and Brazil, Appia hits 2024 running (January 31, 2024, Source) —  Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp. (CSE: API | OTCQX: APAAF) is focusing on its rare earths projects in Canada and Brazil: the Alces Lake Project and the PCH Ionic Clay Project. The Alces Lake Project in Canada is recognized for its high-grade rare earths and gallium in monazite ore. Recent drill results have shown up to 1.57 wt.% Total Rare Earth Oxides (TREO) with mineralization extending to a depth of < 85 meters. In Brazil, the PCH Project offers a simplified extraction process for rare earths essential for electric motor magnets in most EVs. Hole RC-063 reported a total weighted average of 3.87% TREO. Appia’s expansion of mining claims and plans for a Maiden Resource in Q1, 2024, signal their commitment to these projects, with a market cap of C$27 million suggesting a potentially significant year ahead in 2024. Source, Investor.News

China EVs: lithium producers Ganfeng, Tianqi issue profit warnings, blame price plunge for battery material as stocks sink (January 31, 2024, Source) —  Chinese lithium producers Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium have issued profit warnings, attributing their declining profits to a significant drop in lithium prices. Ganfeng expects its 2023 net profit to plummet by 70-80% to between 4.2 billion yuan and 6.2 billion yuan. After accounting for non-recurring items, net profit will range from 2.3 billion yuan to 3.4 billion yuan, down 83-88.5% from 2022 levels. Tianqi anticipates a net profit decline of 62.9-72.6% to 6.62 billion yuan – 8.95 billion yuan. Both companies attribute their struggles to the cyclical nature of the lithium industry and declining lithium prices. The average price of China-produced lithium hydroxide exported to South Korea fell by 45% last month. While electric vehicle sales are still growing, the rate has slowed, impacting lithium demand. However, global lithium demand is expected to rise by 27% this year, with a surplus expected before a deficit in 2026. Referral, CMI Co-Chairman Jack Lifton

Mining analyst-turned-Vital Metals CEO eyes much larger Nechalacho reboot (January 29, 2024, Source) —  Geordie Mark, CEO of Vital Metals Limited (ASX: VML), aims to revamp the Nechalacho rare earths project in the Northwest Territories, leveraging 15 years of experience as a mining analyst. Recognizing the growing demand for rare earth elements in the technology and electric vehicle (EV) markets, Mark plans to shift Vital’s strategy towards a bulk tonnage operation targeting lighter rare earths like praseodymium and neodymium. This comes after the failure of the company’s processing division and a Chinese investment lifeline in 2023. A comprehensive scoping study is crucial for long-term viability, and Mark expects demand for praseodymium and neodymium to rise significantly in the next decade, particularly in China and Europe. Shenghe Resources’ investment provides vital capital for Nechalacho’s development, positioning it to compete with North America’s only rare earths mine, MP Materials Corp.’s (NYSE: MP) Mountain Pass operation. Referral, CMI Co-Chairman Jack Lifton

The Critical Minerals Institute Report (01.25.2024): U.S. government bans Pentagon battery purchases from major Chinese companies starting October 2027 (January 25, 2024, Source) —  The January 2024 Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) report highlighted key economic and geopolitical developments. U.S. inflation in December 2023 impacted interest rate reduction plans, while the S&P 500 rose by 2.04% year-to-date. China’s economy slowed, with falling home prices, and global tensions persisted. In the global electric vehicle (EV) market, December 2023 set a record for plugin electric car sales, led by China. However, the EV sector’s growth rate slowed compared to previous years. The U.S. reported a surge in EV sales and enacted Zero Emission Vehicle mandates to boost adoption. In the EV battery sector, the U.S. government announced a ban on Pentagon battery purchases from major Chinese companies, starting October 2027. Challenges in the critical minerals sector included depressed prices due to oversupply and slowing EV market growth. Recovery in lithium prices was anticipated in late Q1 or early Q2 2024. The report emphasized a negative supply response from producers and expected a potential recovery in the second half of 2024, assuming reasonable EV sales growth. Source, Investor.News

Tesla Projects Slower Growth in 2024 as EV Demand Softens (January 24, 2024, Source) — Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) anticipates slower growth in 2024 amid a challenging landscape for the electric vehicle (EV) industry. CEO Elon Musk desires greater control, aiming for a 25% ownership stake to deter activist shareholders. This follows Musk’s ultimatum to shift focus to AI and robotics if control isn’t achieved. Tesla faces declining demand, shrinking profit margins, heightened competition, and recent price cuts. Despite doubling fourth-quarter net income to $7.9 billion, costs for projects like the Cybertruck and AI research impact profitability. Tesla’s valuation, historically tied to sales and Musk’s vision, faces uncertainty. Challenges include Hertz selling EVs and Chinese automakers overtaking Tesla. EV enthusiasm wanes due to pricing, charging concerns, and range limitations. Tesla plans cost reduction for future vehicles but encounters short-term cost pressures. Despite this, strong Cybertruck demand is expected, with production scaling up gradually. Referral, CMI Director, Alastair Neill

Rare-earths miner Lynas’ Q2 revenue halves on falling prices, lower China demand (January 24, 2024, Source) —  Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths reported a significant drop in its second-quarter revenue, falling by 51.7% to A$112.5 million due to plummeting rare earth prices and reduced demand in China, particularly in the appliance sector amid a construction slowdown. This decline in revenue, which missed analysts’ forecasts, led to a 30-month low in its share prices. Despite this downturn, Lynas has continued to expand its operations, including the near-completion of its Kalgoorlie processing plant in Australia, upgrades to its Malaysian facilities, and ongoing work at the Mt Weld mine. The company, a major supplier outside China, has also been working on a new facility in Texas to serve the U.S. Department of Defense. Despite these efforts, Lynas’ challenges are compounded by the lower average selling price of its products, which has more than halved compared to last year. Referral, CMI Director, Russell Fryer

Investors turn to copper, gold and uranium amid battery metals rout (January 24, 2024, Source) — In 2024, investors are shifting their focus away from battery metals, such as nickel and lithium, due to significant price declines. Instead, they are turning to commodities like copper, gold, and uranium. Copper prices have rebounded following supply shortages and disruptions in production by key global producers. Gold is experiencing renewed interest, driven by geopolitical crises and a weakening US dollar, with forecasts predicting it to trade above $2,000 per ounce in the coming year. Uranium has gained substantial momentum, reaching decade-high prices, driven by limited supply and increased demand for nuclear energy in Western countries. Investors are diversifying their portfolios, seeking better prospects in these alternative commodities. Referral, CMI Director, Russell Fryer

China, in comic strip, warns of ‘overseas’ threats to its rare earths (January 22, 2024, Source) —  China’s State Security Ministry released a comic strip on social media, depicting foreign threats to its rare earth resources. The narrative shows security officers uncovering covert operations by foreign-looking characters, suggesting overseas interest in China’s strategic minerals. China, the leading producer of rare earths essential for high-tech industries, has imposed export restrictions on these elements and related technologies, citing national security. The move has heightened tensions, particularly with the United States, amidst accusations of economic coercion. The comic underscores the importance of safeguarding these resources against international competition and espionage. The state-controlled Global Times highlighted the story, reflecting on the global race for rare earths, vital in military, consumer electronics, and renewable energy sectors, as a national security issue. Referral, CMI Director, Alastair Neill

Tanzanian, Canadian firms to search for rare metal (January 22, 2024, Source) — Tanzanian firm Memnon Project Management Services Company Limited and Canadian company Anibesa Energy Metals Corp. are set to collaborate in prospecting for niobium in Mbozi District, Songwe Region, with an anticipated investment of up to $50 million. They have obtained regulatory approvals and are finalizing the acquisition of three licenses for niobium minerals, while three more geologists are expected to join the exploration team. Memnon Project Management Services is involved in various projects, including the Kongwa Lithium Project and solar energy initiatives. Niobium, a rare metal, enhances the strength of alloys and is used in various industries, including aerospace and construction. As of 2022, Brazil held the largest niobium reserves globally. The partnership aligns with Tanzania’s goal of attracting international companies to boost the mining industry by focusing on valuable critical metals projects. Referral, CMI Director, Alastair Neill

Investor.News Critical Minerals Media Coverage:

  • February 01, 2024 – Critical Minerals “rightsizing” in reaction to governments’ efforts to regulate market https://bit.ly/49f78zC
  • January 31, 2024 – Attention set on rare earths in Canada and Brazil, Appia hits 2024 running https://bit.ly/3ueaxjg
  • January 25, 2024 – The Critical Minerals Institute Report (01.25.2024): U.S. government bans Pentagon battery purchases from major Chinese companies starting October 2027 https://bit.ly/4961zU0
  • January 22, 2024 – Unveiling Insights from Ecclestone on the Future of Mining and Investment from Riyadh’s Future Minerals Forum Event https://bit.ly/491pVOS

Critical Minerals IN8.Pro Member News Releases:

  • February 2, 2024 – Appia Announces Plans for Drilling at the Loranger Uranium-Bearing Property, Saskatchewan, Canada https://bit.ly/3UphbOs
  • February 1, 2024 – Obonga: Wishbone Exploration Permit Application https://bit.ly/3UlnFOj
  • February 1, 2024 – First Phosphate to Provide Project Update to the Federation of Chambers of Commerce of the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean Region of Quebec, Canada https://bit.ly/42ugvt1
  • January 31, 2024 – Defense Metals Announces Closing of its $738,836 Non-Brokered Private Placement https://bit.ly/3umNv9S
  • January 31, 2024 – First Phosphate Announces Launch of 25,000 m Drill Campaign at its Bégin-Lamarche Project https://bit.ly/3SmPtPD
  • January 30, 2024 – Ucore Announces Closing of Debenture Offering https://bit.ly/3SHT1xa
  • January 30, 2024 – Western Uranium & Vanadium Bolsters Mining Team to Scale-Up Uranium Production https://bit.ly/47UTIHZ
  • January 30, 2024 – F3 Hits 2.05m Off Scale >65,535 CPS in First Hole of Winter Program at JR Zone https://bit.ly/3SCxru9
  • January 29, 2024 – First Phosphate Confirms Two Additional New High-Grade Discoveries at Begin-Lamarche Property and up to 39.45% P2O5 at Larouche https://bit.ly/3OlGWew
  • January 29, 2024 – American Rare Earths Quarterly Activities Report for the Period Ending 31 December 2023 https://bit.ly/3SBQQeM
  • January 29, 2024 – Australian Strategic Materials Quarterly Activities Report to 31 December 2023 https://bit.ly/3UdGXVK
  • January 26, 2024 – Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp. Announces New Cooperation Agreement with the Ya’thi Néné Lands and Resources Office https://bit.ly/3Oke4TU
  • January 25, 2024 – First Phosphate, American Battery Factory and Integrals Power Sign MOU to Produce LFP Cathode Active Material and Battery Cells in North America https://bit.ly/48MnCiU
  • January 23, 2024 – F3 Announces Commencement of Drilling at PLN https://bit.ly/3Uc6COo
  • January 23, 2024 – Power Nickel Announces Filing of Amended Technical Report https://bit.ly/3HvYPUd
  • January 23, 2024 – First Phosphate Corp. Welcomes the Addition of Apatite (Phosphate) to the Critical and Strategic Minerals List of Quebec, Canada https://bit.ly/48Pv7Wf
  • January 22, 2024 – First Phosphate Announces Closing of the Third and Final Tranche of Oversubscribed Private Placement Financing for Total Gross Proceeds of $8.2 Million https://bit.ly/3U5Vl2l
  • January 22, 2024 – Elcora Develops Innovative Process To Extract Vanadium From Its Moroccan Vanadinite Deposit https://bit.ly/3Hu8Zon
  • January 22, 2024 – American Rare Earths Announces Breakthrough Metallurgical Results https://bit.ly/3O96trp
  • January 22, 2024 – F3 Expands PLN Project with Acquisition of PW Property from CanAlaska https://bit.ly/3vKBMTb



Will the magnet rare earths prices rise in 2024?

Today we take a look at the magnetic rare earths sector and two leading rare earth companies and what we can expect in 2024 and beyond.

The magnet rare earths prices have fallen in 2022 and 2023

The magnet rare earths sector was hit hard in 2023 with China’s Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr), and Dysprosium (Dy) prices falling as the global economy and EV demand slowed.

Neodymium prices came crashing down in 2022 and 2023 as demand slowed after the 2021 growth rate boom in EV sales – Now at CNY 530,000/t

Source: Trading Economics

Global plugin electric car sales grew by 108% in 2021 causing a huge spike in EV metal prices. Then in 2022, the growth rate slowed to 56% at a time when supply of most EV metals surged. Finally in 2023, the growth rate slowed further to an estimated 28%, resulting in further price decline for the magnet metals such as neodymium.

Demand for the magnet rare earths in electric motors is driven by multiple sources with electric vehicle sales being a key driver. (90% of EV motors use rare earth magnets)

Source: MP Materials company presentation

Will the magnet rare earths prices rise in 2024?

The answer to this question will largely depend on recovery in China and the global economy driving increased demand for EVs, wind turbines, and other magnets used in various industrial applications. Given the most recent trend globally has been towards future interest rate decreases (notably in the USA and China), it bodes well for a recovering consumer and hence demand. This may take a good part of 2024 to flow through with excess inventories across many sectors still needing to be worked off. If we get a strong pickup in EV demand (>40% YoY increase) in 2024, then the magnet rare earths sector woes could soon disappear.

China’s December 2023 EV sales give some hope as they jumped to a record 945,000 units, achieving a superb 47% YoY growth rate.

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (ASX: LYC) (“Lynas”) update

The big recent Lynas news (announced December 7, 2023) is that the first feed of material from the Mt Weld Mine has been introduced into the new Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility in Western Australia, leading to first production and ramp-up of the Facility. A great achievement for Lynas, especially given that the Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility is Australia’s first value-added rare earths processing facility. Lynas stated:

The Lynas Malaysia plant is currently shutdown as works to increase downstream processing capacity are completed. Production will recommence in January 2024. Mixed Rare Earth Carbonate (MREC) from the Kalgoorlie Rare Earth Processing Facility will be progressively introduced to the Lynas Malaysia plant commencing late in the March quarter and increasing as the controlled ramp up of the Kalgoorlie facility is progressed.…“

Once their expansions are completed, Lynas intend to increase their production capacity to 10,500tpa NdPr (Neodymium-Praseodymium). Lynas produced 6,142t of NdPr in FY 2023.

2024 will see the Mt Weld Mine expansion and further work on Lynas’ US Rare Earths Processing Facility Project targeted to be operational by July 2025 – June 2026.

Lynas is expanding its rare earths mining and processing capabilities through to 2025/26

Source: Lynas company presentation

MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) (“MP Materials”) update

MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility in California, USA. In the past MP Materials had to ship their concentrate to China for processing; however, they have a target to bring this back to the USA.

Their target is to grow their mine output by 50% over the next four years and to build separation capacity in the USA with annual production of 6,000 tpa NdPr oxide. The third stage of their plan is to build a greenfield production facility in Texas targeting ~1,000tpa of finished NdFeB (Neodymium Iron Boron) magnets. They already have General Motors (NYSE: GM) as a foundational customer.

MP Materials is working towards Stage II and Stage III of their plan to bring rare earths processing and magnets production to the USA

Source: MP Materials company presentation

Closing remarks

2024 should see a year of consolidation for the rare earths sector as some experts are telling me. Some forecasts are for NdPr supply deficit to begin as early as 2024; however, this will largely depend on China demand, the global economy, EV sales, and new NdPr supply hitting the market.

The two Western magnet rare earths leaders Lynas and MP Materials (and some other key players) are progressing their plans to further build a western supply chain and should be largely complete within the next 2-4 years if it goes to plan. This all supports the building of an end-to-end Western rare earths and magnets sector this decade. Stay tuned.




Assessing China’s Potential Rare Earth Export ‘Bomb’: Dud or Threat?

Recent press reports suggest that China might ban export to the US of rare earth-related products and technologies, particularly magnets, in response to the US decision to restrict exports of chipmaking technology to China. Japan and the Netherlands have signed on to these restrictions, but so far. the EU has not. Perhaps part of the EU delegation visit to Beijing is designed to cool tempers and avert a broader “trade war.”

I suspect they must be smiling in Beijing today at the degree of alarm these articles have produced. But let’s take a collective breath and look at the potential consequences from a couple of angles and see if it makes geopolitical sense. After all, the Chinese are nothing if not pragmatic.

Rare earth magnets

Let’s begin with magnets, the single most important product. China does not have a monopoly on production and arguably is not even making the best quality magnets. Bonded neodymium (neodymium, iron, and boron or “NdFeB”) magnets are made in Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Germany, the UK, and the US (albeit in small quantities) in addition to China. Rare earths (“RE”) oxides are converted to metals in Vietnam and Thailand, as well as the UK. NdFeB alloys are made in Vietnam, Thailand, Japan, Germany, and the UK. The highest-performance sintered magnets in the world are made by Shin-Etsu in Japan. Hitachi is a close second. TDK Corporation is close behind. The Chinese magnet producers always try to close the gap in performance with the Japanese. 

All of this suggests that, from this angle at least, global sourcing could work around a Chinese product ban.

Rare earths refining

What about refining? Rare earths currently are refined in Malaysia by Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (ASX: LYC) (although some recent political difficulties there for Lynas suggest that might change in the near future), in Estonia by Neo Performance Materials Inc. (TSX: NEO), in France by Solvay SA (ENXTBR: SOLB) and in Japan by Shin-Etsu (TSE: 4063) and Mitsui (TSE: 8031) subsidiaries.

The technology to refine both light and heavy rare earths is well known outside of China. The organic extractants to separate REEs were all imported into China for decades and are still produced by non-Chinese companies (Solvay, Albright & Wilson, and a collection of Japanese).

So, alternative sources also exist for refining, although China does remain the processing giant by output, accounting for approximately 85% of refining activity.

Returning to Chinese pragmatism, and its history of avoiding making the second mistake twice: the rare earth embargo China imposed in 2010 against Japan led to an important defeat for China in 2015 at the WTO, an organization China continues to view as useful to its strategic ends. Having a ruling already in place that export quotas violate trade rules imposes a significant constraint on history repeating itself.

US perspective

From a purely US perspective, however, the refining question is troublesome and Washington knows it. The sole rare earth mining company operating in the US, MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP), currently sends its output to China for processing. That issue will change in a couple of years, since MP, with partial funding from the Department of Defense, has begun work on a processing facility near its operations. Australia’s Lynas Corp is building two new processing facilities in Texas, one for Light Rare Earths and another for Heavy Rare Earths, also with US Government (“USG”) funding assistance. Two other processing facilities reportedly are under consideration, one in Arkansas and yet another in Texas.

Thus, the processing issue is a real vulnerability for the US, as MP could not swiftly pivot to send its output to one or more of the existing processing facilities cited above, even if those would have space to accommodate additional flow on an urgent basis, which they might not.

From this perspective, China still has a means by which to “strike” the US if that truly were its intention – and perhaps it is. Interestingly, Presidents Xi and Putin met recently: one can wonder what sort of “economic penalties” against the US that Mr. Putin might have floated to a Chinese leader potentially irked by various recent US moves, including luring Taiwan SemiConductor to establish a huge factory in Arizona (visited by President Biden in March) or the potential ban of TikTok currently being bandied about in DC. Or – most irritatingly of all – the USG funding the growth of rare earths processing capability in the US.  I would add that Washington needs to feel an equal sense of urgency and commitment to building more rare earth mines in the US to ensure secure sourcing of the minerals needed to transform the economy.

Rare earths and the automotive industry

Finally, let’s look at a concrete example of an industry whose future seems irrevocably tied to access to rare earths – the automotive industry. Pat Ryan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Ucore Rare Metals Inc. (TSXV: UCU) contributed:

In the automotive world there are three primary markets, Europe, North America and the Far East. Risk mitigation in each of these markets is more important now than ever before, including the sourcing of critical metals, as supply chains must be independent of each other and shift from high dependency to diversified, sustainable, circular and innovative solutions.

This is absolutely necessary so that individual markets, including North America, are secure, costs can be understood and managed by OEM’s and jobs created in the market where products are sold. Threats or posturing are just that, and never forget that decade after decade North America has been successful because of its innovation, openness and entrepreneurial ideas. That is a point of reference and confidence and with a global energy transition upon us, the sense of urgency is more paramount than ever.

Final thoughts

So generally speaking, I can’t share the current alarm. Not while so many other more subtle and effective means remain available to China if it really wants to make problems for the US economy. After all, the problem with a ‘nuclear bomb’ is that once used, it’s impossible to contain the fallout.




Automotive’s Existential Challenge – Supply Chain Awareness for EV Production

It has become necessary today for the OEM automotive assemblers to assert varying degrees of control over the component companies in the total supply chain for electric vehicle (“EV”) storage batteries and, also, for rare earth permanent magnet motors, not only for those used in powering onboard accessories but also for the vehicle drive trains.

The automotive industry faces a new supply chain issue

Up until now OEM automotive relied on a tiered supplier system. For the supply of outsourced production parts (those that are actually on the finished car as delivered to the customer) the OEMs bought from prior approved, by them individually, Tier One vendors of the part. In turn, these Tier Ones were responsible for the selection of qualifiable (to the OEM) vendors to themselves, these would be the Tier Twos. The daisy chain continued until the anchor of the supply chain, the mine and/or the mineral processor was reached far, far away from the concern, or understanding, of the OEM automotive assembler’s procurement operations.

The reliance on the daisy chain of tiered responsibility has been upended by the need for the fine chemicals required to manufacture lithium-ion storage batteries and rare earth permanent magnet motors.

Those total supply chains with enough capacity to supply an OEM automotive assembler exist today only in China, which has been constructing those supply chains for at least 15 years.

Lack of understanding of key players in the supply chain

American (and European and non-Chinese Asian with the possible exception only of Japan) do not understand these supply chains well enough, much less the detail of their individual component companies, to identify the key players, much less to manage them from the standpoint of strict adherence to specifications, quality control, on-time delivery, and guaranteed pricing, the main pillars of OEM automotive procurement.

OEM automotive has thus embarked on what I like to call, The-Streetcar-named-Desire system of procurement selection, the industry depends on the kindness of strangers. The main barrier to success in such a system is the absence of experience among the procurement groups of almost any knowledge of the principal industries, mining, chemical engineering, and technology metal-enabled component manufacturing that need to be reconfigured to meet the rigid standards for qualification among the OEM automotive assemble industry.

Experience currently not driving government and business decisions

Just as an example of the pervasiveness in America of this dilemma, I asked the U.S. Dept of Defense why they chose the American rare earth mining company, MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP), and the Australian rare earth miner, initial processor,  Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (ASX: LYC) to develop separation systems for “heavy” rare earths, when neither company had ever done such development work. The answer was “Both had large market capitalization, revenues, and significant retained earnings.” So, I guess, it will have been the “bean counters” who killed the program, not those who sought prior experience and proven capability among vendors.  

The OEM automotive industry has embarked on an existential challenge, the total replacement of a well-understood technology, ICE drive trains, with a long-established and proven total supply chain, with a supply chain, that for storage batteries and rare earth permanent magnet drive motors with which they have no experience at all.

What is needed

The mining, refining, and fabrication of industrial precursor forms of the technology metals for the OEM automotive industry are not well developed outside of China.

The survival of the non-Chinese OEM EV automotive industry will depend on selecting the component vendors in the distinctly different total supply chains for lithium and rare earths. Sadly, this cannot be left to the battery and motor vendors, who mostly do not have the political and financial resources to address the problems involved.

Final thoughts

The key problem to be faced is finding the necessary experienced expert total supply chain advisors.

How is that to be done?


Addendum: Key minerals in the EV industry

For the storage batteries:

  • Lithium
  • Nickel
  • Cobalt
  • Manganese
  • Copper
  • Aluminum
  • Steel
  • Tin

For the rare earth permanent magnet motors:

  • Neodymium
  • Praseodymium
  • Dysprosium*
  • Terbium*
  • Cobalt
  • Gallium
  • Copper
  • Steel
  • Tin

*Super critical




The top billionaires are now chasing the critical magnet rare earths – Part 2 of 2

In part 1 we looked at a growing trend where billionaires have started investing or taken a strong interest in rare earths companies, mines, and/or projects around the world. In particular, the story focused on James Litinski’s rise to fame at MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP), as well as the recent billionaire moves of KoBold Metals (Jeff Bezos, Michael Bloomberg, Bill Gates) chasing rare earths in Greenland and Gina Rinehart buying into Arafura Rare Earths Limited (ASX: ARU).

Here in Part 2 of this series will take a look at more billionaires chasing rare earths such as Andrew ‘Twiggy” Forrest, Chris Ellison, and Elon Musk.

Andrew Forrest’s Wyloo Metals and Hastings Technology Metals Ltd.

As announced on August 26, 2022, Australian billionaire Andrew Forrest’s private company Wyloo Metals has agreed to an A$150 million cornerstone investment in Hastings Technology Metals Ltd. (ASX: HAS), through the issuance of secured, redeemable, exchangeable notes. Even more interesting was that Hastings intends to use the A$150 million proceeds to acquire a 22.1% strategic shareholding in Canada’s Neo Performance Materials Inc. (TSX: NEO). Neo uses rare earths to make magnetic powders and magnets, which can later be used in the permanent magnet electric motors used in most quality EVs and wind turbines.

Hastings controls two rare earth projects in Western Australia, the Yangibana Project (more advanced) and the Brockman Project. At the Yangibana Project, Hastings plans to build a mine and beneficiation plant and a hydrometallurgical plant nearby in Onslow, to produce 8,500 tpa TREO production and 3,400tpa NdPr.

It was also revealed in November 2022 that Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX: FMG) has signaled the company hopes to open up a business mining and refining rare earths.

Chris Ellison and rare earths junior VHM Limited

Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) CEO Chris Ellison has been an early leader in the lithium boom, yet now he has also turned his attention to rare earths. Ellison has backed rare earths junior VHM Limited which is set to IPO on the ASX in January 2023. VHM Limited state they have “one of the world’s largest, highest-grade rare earth deposits” at their Goschen Rare Earths and Mineral Sands Project in Victoria, aiming to begin production by H1, 2025. The rare earths in the Goschen Project include neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium.

Elon Musk’s insatiable demand for rare earths to feed Tesla’s vehicles

In 2018 it was reported by Reuters that “Tesla’s shift to a magnetic motor using neodymium in its Model 3 Long Range car adds to pressure on already strained supplies of a rare earth metal……” Musk and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) had come to learn that by using the most powerful and lightweight permanent magnet electric motors they were able to save weight and improve efficiency, which improves both performance and range as well as cost (a smaller battery is needed to achieve the same range). Permanent magnet motors are currently the smallest and lightest electric motors you can buy. The only catch is they require the magnet rare earths. So this is now Tesla’s current problem. How to source the magnet rare earths in the volumes they need now and in future years as they scale to 20 million electric cars per year by 2030. Tesla’s chair Robyn Denholm gave investors a huge clue during a speech in Canberra to mining industry leaders in 2021, when she predicted that Tesla could soon consume more than $1 billion a year in Australian produced lithium, nickel, rare earths, and other battery metals. Then again in October 2022, Denholm strongly advocated that Australia can do so much more to support the EV supply chain. Tesla chairman suggested Australia is capable to do mining, refining, battery cells production, and even make electric vehicles. She said Australia has the raw materials, including lithium, cobalt, copper, and rare earths.

I would add that Canada also has this very same potential and is now focused to build up an EV supply chain, notably in Ontario and Quebec. The Canadian government has allocated C$3.8 billion of financial support for critical minerals in its 2022 budget.

Tesla’s electric cars have shifted towards using more permanent magnet motors that use the magnet rare earths

Source: iStock

Closing remarks

This “billionaires chasing the critical magnet rare earths” series has exposed a relatively new trend where several of the richest and most powerful billionaires in the world have turned their attention to the magnet rare earths, namely neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), and dysprosium (Dy). Billionaires now involved in rare earths include James Litinsky, Jeff Bezos, Michael Bloomberg, Bill Gates, Gina Rinehart, Andrew Forrest, Chris Ellison and indirectly Elon Musk via Tesla.

The reason for this unprecedented interest in the magnet rare earths sector is simple. The most powerful and efficient electric motors need the most powerful magnets, and these are made from the magnet rare earths Nd, Pr, and Dy. Also, they typically use Boron (B). Electric motors are replacing the internal combustion engine and are now central to most modern day technology especially green technology such as electrification of our transport network and renewable energy generation.

Reaching net zero carbon emissions means the next 2-3 decades will rely heavily on switching to electric motors and that will require a secure source of the critical rare earths.

Investors can also learn from these leading billionaires and invest in the magnet metal rare earths while we are still in the early stages of what looks likely to be a decade long boom.

For more information you can visit InvestorIntel’s page “Critical Minerals & Rare Earths“.




The top billionaires are now chasing the critical magnet rare earths – Part 1 of 2

In this two part series we look at a growing trend where billionaires have started investing or taken a strong interest in rare earths companies, mines, and/or projects around the world. The significance is that these billionaires are very well known and followed. Plus it now appears they have their targets set on the ‘magnet’ rare earths sector, which many analysts forecast to go into deficit this decade, driven by the shift to renewable energy and electric vehicles. The magnet rare earths mostly refers to neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr), the world’s most sought after rare earths. Dysprosium (Dy) is the third key rare earth used in magnets. It is also used in control rods for nuclear reactors.

One can argue that this trend all started back when, now billionaire, James Litinsky bought a mine in California from bankrupt Molycorp and subsequently turned the mine into USA’s largest producing rare earths mine, with the company MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) now valued at US$5.48 billion. As Wikipedia states: “In June 2017, the Mountain Pass mine was purchased at auction for $20.5 million by a new entity called MP Mine Operations LLC (MPMO). MPMO was a consortium formed principally by JHL Capital Group, a Chicago-based investment firm led by James Litinsky.” Litinsky recognized, well before others, that the most powerful magnetic electric motors need rare earths, and that these motors would become essential to modern life technology, especially in the green revolution. Litinsky and his partner’s move buying a mine for just US$20.5m that is now worth 200X or more today was pure genius!

The world’s most powerful electric motors are used today in wind turbines and electric vehicles. They rely on the critical and valuable magnet rare earths (Nd, Pr, Dy)

Source: iStock photo

Jeff Bezos, Michael Bloomberg, Bill Gates & others are looking towards Greenland for rare earths

As reported by InvestorIntel in September 2022, Jeff Bezos, Michael Bloomberg, Bill Gates & others (via their company KoBold Metals) are looking towards Greenland as a source of rare earths and other critical metals. KoBold Metals is partnered with Bluejay Mining PLC to find the rare and precious metals in Greenland. An August 2022 article by CNN quoted: “Billionaires are funding a massive treasure hunt in Greenland as ice vanishes……Greenland could be a hot spot for coal, copper, gold, rare-earth elements and zinc, according to the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland.” While there are challenges in Greenland the fact that billionaires who made their money in online shopping, financial services/media, and software are now scouring the globe for rare earths speaks to their importance and value in modern society.

Gina Rinehart buys into Arafura Rare Earths Limited

Gina Rinehart, the world’s richest woman, recently bought A$60 million worth of Arafura Rare Earths Limited (ASX: ARU) shares via her private company Hancock Prospecting, as part of an A$121 million capital raising by Arafura. Arafura’s news release on December 5, stated: “Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd acted as a cornerstone investor, committing to invest $60 million which will result in a post-completion interest of ~10%…..Funds raised will be applied towards orders for long lead items, commencement of fabrication in readiness for main plant construction and early works.”

Europe and the global auto manufacturers are also chasing the critical magnet rare earths

In September 2022 The European Commission stated: “Lithium and rare earths will soon be more important than oil and gas. Our demand for rare earths alone will increase fivefold by 2030. […] We must avoid becoming dependent again, as we did with oil and gas.” The European Critical Raw Materials Act is due for release in Q1, 2023.

European Critical Raw Materials Act – securing the new gas & oil at the heart of our economy (red underline by the author)

Source: Blog of Commissioner Thierry Breton

2023 will likely see more urgency from countries and EV and wind turbine companies regarding sourcing the magnet rare earths.

Part 2 of this series will take a look at Andrew ‘Twiggy” Forrest’s rare earths foray, as well as some other companies and billionaire’s rare earths dependency and challenges to secure enough supply, including Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk.




Disregarding ESG standards is key to China’s rare earths dominance

Everyone knows – or, those who care about such things know – that China produces approximately 80% of current rare earths supply for essential “green” materials such as permanent magnets used in electric vehicles and offshore wind turbines. US and European governments repeatedly have stated publicly that this degree of market dominance poses a clear and present danger to their national security and economic development interests, and are providing a variety of incentives to hasten rare earth processing within their respective national boundaries while respecting ESG (environmental, social and governance) concerns.

It is worth examining how China attained its controlling market position. It is not because China has all the rare earth deposits, although they do have significant amounts. Rather, the answer lies in a variety of factors, including but not limited to: relatively low demand, until recently, for most rare earth elements, which meant that private mining companies were not incentivized into this segment of the mining market; relatively low geological exploration outside China until relatively recently, and China’s willingness to disregard ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) principles which would have constrained its rapid production growth.

Not so long ago, the world was startled by images from major Chinese cities, including Beijing, of air pollution so bad that visibility was limited to feet, citizens masked up to try to breathe (some even resorting to gas masks) and birds fell dead from the sky, choked to death. These amazing images were reminiscent of the Great London Smogs written of in the 1800s, or of the pollution in Mexico City in the mid-to-late 1980s. In other words, not today’s normal.

2016 air pollution in Beijing as measured by Air Quality Index (AQI) defined by the EPA. Source: WikipediaCommons – Phoenix7777

But the willingness to forego or disregard ESG standards is fundamental to China’s rare earths dominance. The majority of known deposits coexist with highly radioactive thorium and uranium, making both mining and production dangerous and expensive. Storing thorium (which currently has few non-medical uses) is costly. So too is storing uranium, although processed uranium is useful for nuclear energy and certain other uses (mostly military). This poses a particular hurdle for US companies potentially interested in the rare earth space. Appropriate secure storage and/or construction and maintenance of impoundment ponds are subject to special licensing and impose significant additional project costs as well as heightened uncertainty that a project even could be permitted, as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission would then become party to the already lengthy permitting process (averaging 10 years in the US if no significant opposition to the project arises).

Recent discussions and increasing interest in building new nuclear power plants – particularly experimental mini-plants – could offer a new offtake solution for uranium but this remains years away. Similar and sometimes more restrictive regulations in the EU also have affected production there. All these measures, however, reflect the responsibility felt by Western governments to safeguard their populations and uphold environmental standards – in other words, balancing ESG and national/economic security interests.

The Chinese government has allowed no such qualms to hinder its aspirations, which is how it became the world’s leading producer of rare earth metals materials, but new, cleaner separation technologies being developed in the US offer hope of breaking China’s grasp.

Hazy air quality over the Shanghai skyline in China.

Research underway at the Critical Materials Institute, a U.S. DOE Energy Innovation Hub, Lawrence Livermore Laboratories (with DOD financial support) and various University labs focus on trying to develop “green separation” methodologies using amoebas, bacteria, proteins etc. This strand of research is best suited to rare earth deposits with little to no radioactivity, such as those of junior exploration/development company American Rare Earths Limited (ASX: ARR | OTCQB: ARRNF), which is providing feedstock to the above-cited labs from its La Paz and Halleck Creek sites. Other companies, such as MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP), the sole US-based rare earth miner, are working on setting up production facilities in the US. Initiatives such as these illustrate that it is possible to realize the goals of shortening and securing supply chains for vital rare earth processed materials while developing a “green economy” in the US based on sound ESG principles.




MP Materials is riding the rare earths tonnes per year train

MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) emerged from the Chapter 11 of Molycorp and is the only producing rare earths mine in the USA. At one time the in the 1990s it was producing upwards of 40% of the world’s rare earths.  MP has a current market cap of US$5.6 billion, which puts it slightly ahead of Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (ASX: LYC), which is the biggest producer of separated rare earths outside of China. Combined their market caps exceed the annual revenue of separated rare earths globally.

MP has made some interesting news this year. Q1 revenues of US$166.3 million which is 50% of their revenues from all of 2021. This is due to the high pricing of Neodymium (Nd) and Praseodymium (Pr) in Q1 of this year. Based on Roskill’s report of 2015, MP’s content of NdPr is 16.3% of the total volume. This may vary a little but it is likely to be the two elements that set the pricing for their concentrate as the balance of the materials are of little value. Looking at a basket price, NdPr will account for 93-94% of the total value, assuming all elements were sold which is doubtful as the Chinese have lots of the remaining elements, especially Cerium and Lanthanum. Gross margins in Q1 2022 were 88%, up from 81% in 2021, but I expect this will fall for the balance of the year as NdPr prices are now 20-25% lower than Q1 peaks. Either way, MP is poised to improve its Net Income to US$168.4 million. MP has done a good job in their sales price to China for their concentrate. I calculate they are getting somewhere in the range of 40-50% of market value, which is high versus traditional pricing for concentrate which I have seen at 25-30%.

In April a definitive supply agreement was announced between MP Materials and GM to supply rare earth alloy and magnets for GM’s EV program. This is significant as it would restore NdPr rare earth metal, alloy and magnet production. The USA does produce Samarium Cobalt magnets but these are typically used in military applications. There is no indication on what technology will be used to produce the metal, which in China is a messy process. Planned capacity is 1,000 metric tonnes of NdFeB magnets. This will require 280-300 tonnes of NdPr. The previous Molycorp plant was designed to produce 20,000 tonnes of REO of which NdPr would account for over 3,000 tonnes.

This does leave the question as to where MP will sell the remaining NdPr. Europe has one metal/alloy producer and one magnet producer, and Japan is the other logical market, but Lynas owns 80% of the Japanese market and has a shorter supply line. What is left is China. Also to supply other US car producers MP would have to expand capacity, and it is not clear what limits or exclusivity GM has with MP Materials.

The challenge is that the original plant was designed as a single train of 20,000 tonnes per year. Nowhere in China is there a single train much larger than 5,000 tonnes per year (TPY). Lynas built four 5,500 TPY trains. This allows flexibility should there be issues like reduced demand during COVID where one or two trains can be shutdown to allow matching with demand, or if one train has operational issues. I would expect that MP, with the input from Shenghe Resources (a related party of MP whose ultimate parent is Shenghe Resources Holding Co., Ltd., a rare earth company listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and as of its March 31, 2022 quarterly report, a buyer of MP’s rare earth concentrate that accounted for more than 90% of MP’s product sales), will reconfigure the plant to be more flexible. Also MP, like anyone else, will not go from zero to 20,000 TPY overnight. There will be a qualification process and time to acquire accounts so multiple trains makes sense as one penetrates a market as they can be brought on as the business grows.

The other news was that the US Department of Defense (DOD) granted MP $35 million to build a heavy rare earths at Mountain Pass. I find this interesting as Mt. Pass has 98.6% of its content in light rare earths. This would mean at a run rate of 20,000 TPY the total output of the heavy rare earths would be 280 TPY. The only real valuable heavy rare earths are Terbium (Tb) and Dysprosium (Dy) which would total about 10 TPY combined. At today’s pricing, which for Tb is high, in my opinion, this plant would generate revenues of $10-11 million per year.

Overall MP has been doing well – selling concentrate to China. What will happen to profits as they move downstream only time will tell.