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Assessing the S&P 500 Market Trend and what it means for Investors

Every so often, I like to take a step back from the day-to-day gyrations of the market and have a look at what might be the overall market trend. It can be hard to swim against the current, so if the market is trending lower, then perhaps now isn’t the time to be stepping into a longer-term story. However, if the market is trending higher, then you might be able to load up on a basket of more speculative names and not have to worry as much about whether they pan out right away or not.

At present, it appears there are four key focus points for investors – inflation, employment, interest rates, and earnings. It might be a little more complicated than that but you’ll note I didn’t include a recession. My observation is that a recession is somewhat irrelevant to the overall market performance right now. I suspect that could be due to continued strong employment numbers on both sides of the border, the market doesn’t perceive that there will be a meaningful or severe recession in light of that. I’m sure the press will be happy to push the panic button if or when the economy slides into a recession but as I’ve discussed previously, by the time you can actually declare there is a recession, a forward-looking market could be starting a bull run and perhaps we already have.

Turning back to the key points I started with, they are all somewhat interrelated. Starting with inflation, it appears to be cooling marginally but not as much as I think the market, or more importantly the U.S. Federal Reserve, was expecting. Additionally, employment numbers continue to surprise to the strong side. This sticky inflation and strong employment lead to the potential for interest rates to stay where they are (or possibly even see another small increase or two) for a longer period of time, or until inflation gets back down closer to 3% (I know the Fed target is 2% but I think they’ll blink before then). Higher interest rates for a longer period of time flow through to the cost of debt, and discount rates that are used to value companies, especially high-growth tech names which led the market for so long. The one piece of good news, about the four points, is that this latest earnings season was OK. Not great but also not terrible.

1-Year Chart – $SPX – S&P 500 Large Cap Index

Source: StockCharts.com

So where does this leave us? I think it means we see a market that is floundering without direction. January saw a nice little rally, February saw us give up most of those gains and the lack of conviction continues. The market is reacting here and there on specific news items but it doesn’t necessarily lead to a broad-based move. For example, early in the week, there was some positive economic news out of China and the copper stocks all caught a pretty good bid. But that was short-lived as everyone waits for the next data point. Yesterday, one of the more hawkish members of the U.S. Federal Reserve made comments that the market interpreted very differently than I did, and we saw a mid-day rally. But again, it has little to no sustainable influence on the overall market trend.

Looking at the one-year chart for the S&P 500, the market has entered a bit of a sideways pattern. We might be in a slight uptrend that started last October with higher highs and higher lows. However, the current dip has to bottom out at the 3,850 level or higher. If it dips to 3,800 or lower then I would say we are likely rangebound between 3,650 and 4,150. Yesterday we bounced off one key support level and that’s the 200-day moving average (3,940). This could signal a continuation of the uptrend but we won’t know that until it goes back to test the 4,200 mark.

What lies ahead is anyone’s guess at this point. If I had to make a call, I would guess we’ll see stocks trade in a sideways pattern or range until something “gives”. What do I mean by “gives”? Either inflation starts to noticeably move lower, sentiment towards “higher for longer” interest rates get ingrained and the market decides to get on with life instead of overanalyzing every data point that comes out, or other macro events occur that attract the attention of investors. Unfortunately, that doesn’t help us determine if the next move for the market is up or down. But the next few days and the 3,940 level on the S&P 500 may go a long way toward helping us decide.




The Astrologers Fund’s Henry Weingarten on the Biden market winners – copper, gold and critical materials win.

In a recent InvestorIntel Interview, Tracy Weslosky speaks with Henry Weingarten, Fund Director of The Astrologers Fund, Inc., about the current market trends and the likely triggers for the market to be up.

In this InvestorIntel interview, which may also be viewed on YouTube (click here to subscribe to the InvestorIntel Channel), Henry went on to say, “If you own copper stocks you should stick with them.” He also said that gold is doing well and added, “we are on our way to $2,000 by the year end.” He also expressed his positive sentiments for oil and said that critical materials like rare earths and lithium are very good long term investment.

To access the complete interview, click here




What stocks and sectors to win in the US Presidential election

With the US Presidential election on November 3 many investors are looking at the implications of a Trump win versus a Biden win. Based on the current polls Biden is ahead which means some of the Biden related stocks have already partially priced in a Biden victory.

Sectors and stocks to do well if Trump wins

If we see a President Trump victory this week then investors can expect more of the same from the past 3 years in office. Trump is likely to continue with the China trade war and his tariff policy, which has so far had mixed results. Agriculture (soybeans etc.) has suffered some severe ups and downs as China retaliated then appeased Trump. Chinese student education and tourism to the US is significantly down.

Sectors that have generally been favored under Trump include oil/gas/coal/nuclear, military, possibly financials, possibly technology, and some industrials. Trump’s policy to reduce corporate Americas tax rate from 35% to 21% was a huge win for corporate America and it helped boost stock markets at the time. The recent September 30 White House Executive Order (‘EO’) on critical minerals is aimed to give a huge boost to the critical minerals mining sector and supply chain, especially for US based projects.

Some stocks and funds likely to do well in a Trump victory include oil/gas/coal/nuclear such as SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) (assumes COVID-19 eases and oil prices increase), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSE American: UUUU | TSX: EFR), Ur‐Energy Inc. (NYSE American: URG | TSX: URE); defense stocks such as Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC), Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT), Raytheon Co. (RTN), and General Dynamics Corp. (GD); financials such as Bank of America (BOA), JP Morgan Chase (JPM); and the tech giants (Facebook FB), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) etc); US based critical minerals miners MP Materials Corp. (MP)(FVAC), Neo Performance Materials Inc. (TSX: NEO), and the other US critical mineral miners.

China related shares and funds would likely not do well if Trump wins and the recent renewable energy and EV stocks rally might reverse.

Donald Trump continues with ‘make America great again’

Source

Sectors and stocks to do well if Biden wins

Biden’s policy proposals are aimed at restoring equality and boosting the middle class as well as US manufacturing. Biden plans to work with other nations to solve global conflicts and less conflict with China. His other key policy pillar is green energy (‘green new deal’). Biden’s green plan is for the U.S. to have a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035. This would be a massive boost to the renewable energy sectors such as solar and wind energy as well as more support to the electric vehicle (EV) industry. Biden also plans to boost spending on rural areas, agriculture, healthcare, child care and caregivers, as well as helping to reduce student debt and raising the US minimum wage to $15/hour. He plans to boost R&D spending by $300 billion on electric vehicles (EVs), lightweight materials, 5G and artificial intelligence. To do all this he plans to raise corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, and to raise taxes on individuals with incomes above $400,000, including raising individual income, capital gains, and payroll taxes. Also some capital gains tax increases for those on incomes above $1,000,000 pa.

Some stocks and funds likely to do well in a Biden victory include solar energy stocks and solar ETFs (TAN), SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG), First Solar (FSLR), Brookfield Renewable Partners LP (BEP), NextEra Energy (NEE); wind energy and wind stocks (FAN); US electric vehicle stocks such as Tesla (TSLA), Fisker (FSR); EV charging companies Blink (BLNK); and the miners that provide the raw materials for the clean energy sector. This would include miners in rare earths, lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, manganese, aluminum, and scandium etc. Also emissions reducing stocks such as dynaCERT Inc. (TSX: DYA | OTCQX: DYFSF) stand to benefit. US healthcare stocks such as United Health Group (UNH) and those focused on COVID-19 treatment and prevention should do well as Biden increases COVID-19 testing and therapies and drops medicare eligibility from 65 yo to 60 yo.

Joe Biden plans to help fix inequality and boost the middle class

Source

Sectors and stocks to do well no mater who wins

The technology sector has done well under Trump boosted by the corporate tax cut; however it is also likely to continue to do ok under Biden, despite a short term pull back due to higher corporate taxes. There is the Democrats (Biden) threat of more regulation and possible breakups of big tech; but under Trump there is also greater pressure on big tech such as the recent Alphabet Google anti-trust lawsuit. Expanding rural broadband internet access under Biden is a small positive for tech.

The infrastructure sector should do well. If Trump wins the infrastructure to do well will be more based around older infrastructure such as highways, pipelines, and traditional energy (oil, gas). If Biden wins the benefits will go towards newer infrastructure such as his $2 trillion green infrastructure and jobs plan over his first term in office.

US critical materials related stocks look set to do well both under Trump and Biden.

Gold and precious metals will likely do well no mater who wins assuming continued US stimulus and money printing.

Closing remarks

InvestorIntel has no political bias, but rather seeks to help investors make informed decisions.

As a general rule if Trump wins the US election investors can expect the same stocks and sectors that did well the past 3 years to continue to do well. The best performing sector has been US technology. The lower corporate tax rate is a plus for US corporates in general.

If Biden were to win the winning sectors and stocks relate mostly around stocks that benefit from a supported lower and middle class, renewable energy including EVs, and government support (health care, child care, aged care).

Finally, how the US deals with the China trade war, COVID-19, and geo-political events going forward will also play a significant role in the US stock market over the next 4 years. Good luck to all.




The Astrologers Fund Henry Weingarten forecasts gold, critical materials and Trump for fall

Henry Weingarten, Fund Director of The Astrologers Fund, Inc., spoke with InvestorIntel’s Tracy Weslosky on near term prospects for gold and critical materials. “In November and December gold will do very well no matter who wins,” Henry stated. He also commented on the likely market scenario if Donald Trump loses election.

Henry went on to say that President Trump’s Executive Order on Critical Minerals will boost the critical minerals stocks in the short term and added, “Lithium is going double in 2022.” He also said, “China will be very belligerent next year that will help military stocks. Military and security will be front and center next year.”

To access the complete interview, click here




The Milken Institute’s Dr. Michael Piwowar’s #1 piece of advice for the financial markets in dealing with COVID-19

“The number one advice would be to keep the financial markets open. The financial markets are playing a critical role in the response to the crisis. They are proving liquidity for people who need cash right now to able to sell their financial assets and turn it into cash to use things like meet payroll or their mortgage payment and things like that. They are providing the opportunity to people who want to step in and use this as a buying opportunity and put a floor on the prices right now. The other thing they are doing is that they are giving both investors and policymakers critical information in terms of price discovery.” States Dr. Michael Piwowar, Executive Director of the Milken Institute Center for Financial Markets, in an interview with InvestorIntel’s Tracy Weslosky.

Dr. Piwowar went on to say that though the markets saw some wild swings recently, it was good volatility and was evidence that the market is working. The market is providing critical information to policymakers to decide their response to the Coronavirus crisis – financial assistance or economic stimulus. The Federal Reserve along with the Treasury has stepped in the credit markets to provide the much-needed liquidity.

Dr. Piwowar also said that FasterCures Center at the Milken Institute is on the frontlines of what’s going on in the COVID-19 pandemic. The center is working very closely with a lot of the people who are developing vaccine for the disease.

Dr. Piwowar also provided an update on the Resilient Infrastructure Financing initiative of the Milken Institute. He said that there is a great need in the United States to improve infrastructure. The institute is working to promote public and private partnerships to fund and finance resilient community infrastructures to combat the disruption of weather-related disasters.

To access the complete interview, click here