The recent surge in silver prices has sparked renewed interest in the precious metal as an investment avenue, particularly amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Despite its traditional correlation with gold, silver has demonstrated an independent trajectory in recent months, outperforming its counterpart and attracting attention from investors seeking diversification and hedging opportunities.

Christopher Ecclestone, an analyst at Hallgarten & Company, sheds light on the dynamics shaping the silver market in a short note he released earlier this morning on Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (TSX: AYA | OTCQX: AYASF). He notes the intriguing divergence between gold and silver prices, emphasizing the impact of global events such as inflationary pressures and geopolitical conflicts on precious metal markets. Ecclestone’s insights underscore the complexity of factors influencing silver’s price movements and its potential as an investment asset.

One notable aspect of silver’s recent performance is its resilience amid challenging economic conditions. While gold has historically been viewed as the ultimate safe haven asset, silver’s versatility and industrial applications have contributed to its appeal as an alternative investment. Ecclestone highlights the role of industrial demand in driving silver prices, suggesting that silver’s utility extends beyond its function as a store of value.

Moreover, the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) Co-Chair Jack Lifton always tells us that silver is the #1 technology metal, he often references a notable supply-demand imbalance in the silver market. The forecasted increase in global silver supply, coupled with strong demand projections, suggests a potentially favorable environment for silver investors. Ecclestone’s observations underscore the significance of supply dynamics in shaping silver’s price trajectory and investment outlook. And we are counting down to having John Carter from Silver Bullet Mines Corp. (TSXV: SBMI | OTCQB: SBMCF) at 9 AM EST, tomorrow – Wednesday, April 10, 2024, from 9-920 AM (click here to join).

In preparation – we have done our research on the Top 5 silver producers listed on the Canadian markets. Here are the top 5 silver companies listed on the TSX by market capitalization:

#1: Pan American Silver Corp. (TSX: PAAS | NYSE: PAAS)
Market Cap: C$ 9.357 billion
Latest News Release: April 8, 2024 – Pan American Silver reports additional high-grade drill results from the La Colorada Skarn project [Read more]
About: Pan American is a leading producer of silver and gold in the Americas, with operations in Canada, Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina. They have a strong reputation for sustainability, operational excellence, and financial management. Headquartered in Vancouver, B.C., their shares trade on the NYSE and TSX under “PAAS.”

#2: First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX: FR | NYSE: AG)
Market Cap: C$ 3.167 billion
Latest News Release: April 1, 2024 – First Majestic Announces 2023 Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Estimates [Read more]
About: First Majestic is a publicly traded mining company focused on silver and gold production in Mexico and the United States. They own and operate several mines, including San Dimas, Santa Elena, and La Encantada, along with development and exploration assets.

#3: Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (TSX: FVI | NYSE: FSM)
Market Cap: C$ 1.993 billion
Latest News Release: April 8, 2024 – Fortuna reports strong gold equivalent production of 112,543 ounces in the first quarter of 2024 [Read more]
About: Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. is a Canadian precious metals mining company with five operating mines in Argentina, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Mexico, and Peru. They emphasize sustainability, efficient production, environmental protection, and social responsibility.

#4: MAG Silver Corp. (TSX: MAG | NYSE American: MAG)
Market Cap: C$ 1.751 billion
Latest News Release: March 27, 2024 – MAG Silver Announces Robust Updated Technical Report for Juanicipio [Read more]
About: MAG Silver Corp. is a Canadian exploration company focused on advancing high-grade precious metals projects in the Americas. Their joint venture interest in the Juanicipio Mine in Mexico positions them as a top-tier primary silver mining company.

#5: SilverCrest Metals Inc. (TSX: SIL | NYSE American: SILV)
Market Cap: C$ 1.497 billion
Latest News Release: March 11, 2024 – SilverCrest Reports Fourth Quarter and 2023 Annual Financial Results [Read more]
About: SilverCrest is a Canadian precious metals producer headquartered in Vancouver, BC. Their principal focus is the Las Chispas Operation in Sonora, Mexico, with ongoing initiatives to expand their asset base and operate multiple silver-gold mines in the Americas.

In summary, the recent surge in silver prices highlights the metal’s potential as a valuable component of a diversified investment portfolio. Whether through physical ownership, ETFs, mining stocks, or futures contracts, investors have various avenues to participate in the silver market and potentially benefit from its upward trajectory.

[Note from the Published: In this headline photo (L-R): Peter Clausi and John Carter from Silver Bullet Mines Corp. (TSXV: SBMI | OTCQB: SBMCF), with Stephen Burega from Romios Gold Resources Inc. (TSXV: RG | OTCQB: RMIOF). The 15-oz bar was drawn during PDAC, and the winner was Mathieu Stephens from NeoTerrex Minerals Inc. (TSXV: NTX)]

In today’s monthly edition of Hallgarten & Co.‘s “Resources Monthly” for March 2024, titled “Debasing Criticality’s Currency,” the firm offers an intricate analysis of the evolving landscape in the critical metals and minerals sector. The publication navigates through the performance of various commodities, assessing geopolitical impacts and strategic movements by both governments and corporations within the space.

The issue begins with an overview of the metals market, noting, “Gold added massively to its price during the month as international tensions lit a fire under the price.” It goes on to describe the broader metals market, mentioning that “Inflation has stabilized and, in many places, has retreated,” and highlighting uranium’s unique position in the current market context. The analysis of tin and tungsten prices, alongside silver’s momentum, provides a comprehensive picture of the metals market dynamics.

The narrative shifts to critique the expansion of critical metals lists by governments, which the report suggests dilutes the actual concept of criticality. The publication humorously recounts instances where “Every man, and his dog, now thinks he has a critical metal,” pointing out the somewhat arbitrary expansion of these lists. It highlights a specific case where boron was lobbied to be recognized as a critical mineral due to its wide applications, despite there being “no shortage of Boron” and the US producing a significant portion of the global supply.

Further analysis is provided on regional strategies to promote local mining prospects through critical metals lists, with particular emphasis on the practices in Ontario, Quebec, and Australia. The report skeptically asks, “What are the criteria for inclusion beyond a desire to feather the nest of some projects?” pointing out the lack of genuine supply concerns for many of the metals being promoted.

On the corporate front, Hallgarten & Co. updates its Model Resources Portfolio, notably adding Applied Graphite Technologies Corporation (TSXV: AGT), citing the company’s promising position in the graphite market in Sri Lanka. The discussion extends to graphite mining’s prominence in Africa, with Tanzania and Mozambique mentioned as key players. Blencowe Resources PLC (LSE: BRES), with its significant graphite project in Uganda, is identified as a particularly promising investment.

Alphamin Resources Corp.‘s (TSXV: AFM) favorable position in the tin market is detailed, with the firm’s operational expansion poised to significantly increase its production capacity. Sheffield Resources Limited‘s (ASX: SFX) strategic investment in Capital Metals PLC (LSE: CMET) for the development of mineral sands in Sri Lanka is another highlight, demonstrating the firm’s focus on diversifying its investment portfolio. The issue concludes with a critique of the TSX 30, described as “nothing more than a ‘List of Successful Promotes’, not an index at all.” This critical view underscores the skepticism Hallgarten & Co. holds towards promotional tools that may not accurately reflect the genuine performance or potential of listed companies. To access this Hallgarten + Co. Report, click here

In the ever-evolving world of resource investment, keeping abreast of the latest trends and market shifts is crucial for investors, I spoke with Hallgarten + Company‘s Christopher Ecclestone in London this morning who is headed to the Future Minerals Forum (FMF), scheduled to take place 9-11 January in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia as one of the speakers.

He responded by sending me a newly released research report from Hallgarten + Company he had written titled: Model Resources Portfolio: Peak Climate Hysteria. In it, Christopher Ecclestone, provides an in-depth analysis of the current economic landscape, blending market data with insightful commentary on environmental and economic trends.

Navigating Through ‘Peak Climate Hysteria’

The report kicks off with a provocative discussion on what he classifies as “Peak Climate Hysteria.” This concept delves into the growing skepticism and political polarization surrounding climate change initiatives, especially when viewed through the lens of economic impact on lower-income demographics. The report suggests that while there’s a general acknowledgment of climate change, the public’s patience may be wearing thin with policies perceived as economically burdensome. This sentiment is especially palpable in regions like the UK and Australia, where extreme weather patterns have sparked debates on the authenticity and implications of the prevailing climate change narrative.

Market Dynamics and Commodity Insights

A significant portion of the report is dedicated to reviewing the performance of various commodities and sectors, providing valuable insights for investors. Gold’s robust position above US$2000 is highlighted as a particularly positive indicator, reflecting the metal’s enduring appeal in uncertain times. The report also sheds light on Teck Resources Limited’s (TSX: TECK.A | TSX: TECK.B | NYSE: TECK) recent strategic moves in Latin America, painting a promising picture for the company’s future. Another notable mention is the economic reforms in Argentina under President Javier Milei, hinting at a liberal shift that could reshape the country’s investment landscape.

The Lithium sector, pivotal in the green energy transition, is examined in the context of Chile’s state interventions and a global slowdown in EV sales. This analysis is critical for understanding the sector’s trajectory amidst fluctuating demand and pricing pressures.

Sector-Specific Analysis and Forecasts

Hallgarten + Company’s report doesn’t shy away from deep dives into specific sectors, offering granular insights that are both informative and strategic. The spotlight on Teck Resources extends into a detailed look at its joint ventures and new ventures, especially in the copper-gold space, underscoring the company’s proactive approach in a competitive market.

The Antimony market receives particular attention, with the report highlighting its growing demand, especially in the solar photovoltaic industry. This insight is crucial for investors looking to tap into emerging opportunities within the renewable energy sector. Similarly, the bullish stance on the Tin market, backed by data on declining stock levels and potential supply tightness in China, provides a valuable perspective for those weighing investment options in this niche but significant sector.

Strategic Portfolio Adjustments

Understanding the dynamics of portfolio management is crucial in resource investing, and the report addresses this by detailing recent changes in its model portfolio. The addition of EMX Royalties and AbraSilver, along with a short position in Aya Gold & Silver, is indicative of the company’s strategic shifts in response to market trends. This section not only reveals specific investment moves but also offers a broader view of the company’s investment philosophy and approach to risk management.

Broad Market Commentary and Future Outlook

The report concludes with a broader commentary on the state of the resource investment market, particularly focusing on the junior gold explorers. It addresses the challenges faced by these companies in a fluctuating market and the broader implications of market dynamics on their performance. His commentary is essential for understanding the complexities and nuances of investing in junior explorers and the factors that can significantly impact their success or failure.

In summary, Hallgarten + Company’s “Model Resources Portfolio: Peak Climate Hysteria” report stands out as a comprehensive and thought-provoking analysis of the current resource investment landscape in usual Ecclestone fashion. A blend of market data, sector-specific insights, and broader economic commentary provides a valuable resource for investors looking to navigate the complexities of this dynamic field. While this commentary offers a rapid-fire snapshot of the report’s rich content, those interested in a deeper dive into the world of resource investing will find reading the full report an exceptionally good use of their time. To access this report, click here

Edison Lithium Corp. (TSXV: EDDY | OTCQB: EDDYF), a forward-looking player in the evolving battery metals market, is pivoting towards Sodium-Ion battery technology, as detailed in a comprehensive report by Hallgarten + Company. This strategic shift comes amidst a surge in demand for Electric Vehicles (EVs) and a heightened focus on sustainable and efficient energy storage solutions.

In 2021, Edison Lithium expanded into the Lithium salares in Argentina, a move aligning with the country’s emergence as a major lithium producer, often referred to as the “Saudi Arabia of Lithium.” This venture proved lucrative when Edison sold 80% of its Lithium package for triple the purchase price, while retaining key assets. The sale aligns with the company’s strategic pivot towards sodium-ion technology and the broader market trend of seeking alternatives to lithium-ion formulations, driven by concerns over the environmental impact and long-term viability of lithium-based batteries.

The report emphasizes the increasing interest in sodium-ion batteries, partly due to their potential for reducing the carbon footprint compared to lithium-ion batteries. Edison Lithium’s recent endeavors include acquiring concessions for sodium sulphate in Saskatchewan, Canada, through a deal with Globex Mining Enterprises Inc. This acquisition positions Edison at the forefront of the sodium-ion battery supply chain.

Sodium-ion batteries, while not new, have gained renewed interest due to the rising costs and environmental concerns associated with lithium-ion batteries. These batteries use sodium ions as charge carriers and offer advantages like lower production costs and abundance of sodium, especially from brines. However, challenges such as lower energy density and limited charge-discharge cycles hinder their mass adoption.

Major industry players like Northvolt AB, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), China’s BYD Co. Ltd. (OTC: BYDDF), and startups like Peak Energy are exploring sodium-ion technologies, primarily for stationary applications. Northvolt, for instance, has developed a sodium-ion cell with energy density comparable to lithium iron phosphate cells, indicating potential for broader applications in the future.

The report highlights the geological and historical context of sodium sulphate mining in Saskatchewan, which dates back to 1918. The region’s unique geology, featuring shallow hypersaline lakes and extensive sedimentary rock formations, has facilitated the accumulation of sodium sulphate deposits. These natural resources could play a pivotal role in Edison Lithium’s pursuit of sodium-ion battery technology.

In summary, Edison Lithium’s strategic shift towards sodium-ion battery technology represents a significant move in the evolving landscape of battery metals. This pivot not only aligns with global trends towards more sustainable energy solutions but also positions the company to capitalize on the abundant resources and growing market interest in sodium-ion technologies. The Hallgarten + Company report underscores Edison Lithium’s proactive approach to adapting to changing market dynamics, ensuring its relevance and competitiveness in the burgeoning field of battery technology.

In the ever-evolving world of mining and mineral exploration, certain elements periodically spring into prominence, reshaping industry landscapes and investment priorities. One such element, Scandium (Sc), has recently been thrust into the spotlight, thanks to a groundbreaking report by Christopher Ecclestone of Hallgarten + Company. This report shines a light on Imperial Mining Group Ltd. (TSXV: IPG | OTCQB: IMPNF), a company poised to become the first primary Scandium miner in North America.

Rio Tinto’s Game-Changing Move

Rio Tinto Group’s (NYSE: RIO | LSE: RIO) involvement has been a catalyst in transforming the critical mineral Scandium from an obscure element to a sought-after commodity. Their investment in Quebec has positioned the region as a secondary producer of Scandium, directly impacting the dynamics of the global Scandium market.

Imperial Mining’s Crater Lake Project

At the heart of Ecclestone’s report is the Crater Lake project, wholly owned by Imperial Mining Group. Located in Quebec, the project, initially aimed at Rare Earth Elements (REE, rare earths), has evolved over 12 years into a major Scandium deposit, offering both challenges and opportunities for the company. The project, now seen as one of the largest viable Scandium projects in North America, boasts a promising after-tax NPV of $1.72 billion and an IRR of 32.8%.

Project Evolution and Opportunities

The Crater Lake project’s shift away from rare earths to Scandium could potentially lower capital expenditures while enhancing the IRR. This strategic pivot is particularly significant as Scandium’s role in light-weighting in the aeronautics sector grows. The project’s life of mine, initially estimated at 25 years, has the potential to extend to 40 years, thanks to recent increases in the Mineral Resource Estimate.

Geological and Resource Highlights

The Crater Lake property consists of 96 contiguous claims covering 47 km², with an updated Mineral Resource Estimate indicating a significant increase in Scandium tonnage. The exploration data reveals high concentrations of iron oxide and rare earths, and the property’s geology is characterized by a variety of lithologies including granite, quartz monzonite, and ferrosyenite, making it a complex but lucrative mining prospect.

Exploration and Future Prospects

Imperial Mining has conducted extensive exploration programs since acquiring Crater Lake. These include geophysical modeling, drilling programs, and geochemical studies. The company’s future plans include converting inferred mineral resources to indicated and potentially measured resources, further solidifying the project’s potential.

Investment and Market Dynamics

Ecclestone’s report also touches upon the cautious investment climate, emphasizing the importance of realistic production perspectives. The entry of new players like Imperial Mining into the Scandium market adds an intriguing dynamic to the price and demand for Scandium, especially considering the uncreated demand from end-users.

Conclusion

For investors and industry enthusiasts looking to understand the intricacies of Scandium mining and its future potential, Christopher Ecclestone’s report on Imperial Mining Group Ltd. is a must-read. It not only provides an in-depth analysis of the Crater Lake project but also offers insights into the broader implications of Scandium mining in North America. As Scandium’s importance in critical industries like aerospace grows, keeping an eye on developments like Imperial Mining’s Crater Lake project becomes crucial.

To delve deeper into the fascinating world of Scandium mining and understand how Imperial Mining Group Ltd. is set to revolutionize this space, I highly recommend reading the full report by Hallgarten + Company’s Senior Analyst Christopher Ecclestone . It’s an enlightening journey through the complexities, challenges, and immense potential of Scandium in the contemporary mining industry.

Note from the Publisher: On my industry expert lists, scandium is deemed a rare earth element. This said on the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) lists for the USA, Canada, Australia and Europe, they all list scandium seperately as a critical mineral.

In a recent Investor.News interview, Tracy Weslosky spoke with Christopher Ecclestone, Principal and mining strategist of Hallgarten & Company. The discussion revolved around the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit in Cape Town and the growing perceptions around this alliance.

When Weslosky brought up Ecclestone’s latest thinkpiece, “BRICS: The Company One Keeps,” he pointed out that while the BRICS concept has resurfaced in light of the Cape Town gathering, it’s essential to see it for what it is. As some nations within the alliance surge forward, others, notably Russia, face staggering economic and diplomatic setbacks. South Africa, despite its mineral wealth, struggles with power problems and economic reputation issues.

Interestingly, the comparison of BRICS as a challenger to the G7 was met with skepticism by Ecclestone. He noted that while G7 nations share many similarities, the BRICS are far more diverse, with their interests and economic trajectories hardly aligning. Ecclestone highlights that the very foundation of BRICS was a marketing strategy by Goldman Sachs in the 1990s to promote emerging market shares. As for its modern relevance, he states, “It’s like a stick to beat the West with, but the West isn’t feeling the blows.”

Echoing a segment from his report titled “Goldman’s Brainchild Disowned,” Ecclestone emphasized that the original creators of the BRICS concept have long distanced themselves from it. They view it as outdated. BRICS was never about a genuine, integrated alliance but more a catchy term, a soundbite for investment opportunities. As Ecclestone succinctly put it, trying to revive its significance now is “like a balloon with a hole in it.”

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Disclaimer: This interview, which was produced by InvestorNews Inc. (“InvestorNews”), does not contain, nor does it purport to contain, a summary of all material information concerning the Company, including important disclosure and risk factors associated with the Company, its business and an investment in its securities. InvestorNews offers no representations or warranties that any of the information contained in this interview is accurate or complete.

This interview and any transcriptions or reproductions thereof (collectively, this “presentation”) does not constitute, or form part of, any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase any securities in the Company. The information in this presentation is provided for informational purposes only and may be subject to updating, completion or revision, and except as may be required by applicable securities laws, the Company disclaims any intent or obligation to update any information herein. This presentation may contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and assumptions of the management of the Company as of the date made. They are inherently susceptible to uncertainty and other factors that could cause actual events/results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Additional risks and uncertainties, including those that the Company does not know about now or that it currently deems immaterial, may also adversely affect the Company’s business or any investment therein.

Any projections given are principally intended for use as objectives and are not intended, and should not be taken, as assurances that the projected results will be obtained by the Company. The assumptions used may not prove to be accurate and a potential decline in the Company’s financial condition or results of operations may negatively impact the value of its securities. This presentation should not be considered as the giving of investment advice by the Company or any of its directors, officers, agents, employees or advisors. Each person to whom this presentation is made available must make its own independent assessment of the Company after making such investigations and taking such advice as may be deemed necessary. Prospective investors are urged to review the Company’s profile on SedarPlus.ca and to carry out independent investigations in order to determine their interest in investing in the Company.

BRICS, an acronym representing the collective might of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, was a term birthed by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs in 2001. It showcased the surging economies that were predicted to majorly influence the global economic trajectory by 2050. The coalition has since emerged as a significant player in global geopolitics, sometimes seen as a counter to the G7 bloc of advanced economies. This evolution is evident through initiatives such as the BRICS New Development Bank, the BRICS payment system, and their ambitious plans for a BRICS reserve currency.

Christopher Ecclestone’s thinkpiece from Hallgarten & Company delves deep into this recent revitalization of BRICS, led predominantly by China. A few key insights from his analysis (click here to access):

1. Historical Context: The original concept of BRIC, conceived by Goldman Sachs, did not include South Africa. Its addition converted the group’s acronym from BRIC to BRICS. Despite the collective’s ambitious prospects, the inclusion of certain nations, like South Africa, raised questions about the true power and potential of the union.
2. China’s Play: Ecclestone argues that China’s effort to rejuvenate BRICS appears to be a strategic move to establish a clique under its dominance. The summit, however, had its peculiarities he suggests, with China’s President Xi sending a minor minister to deliver his speech, drawing parallels to Jay Gatsby’s famous absence from his own party.
3. BRICS vs. Dollar Dominance: While BRICS hints at challenging the global dominance of the US dollar, Ecclestone remains skeptical. He believes the diverse nature of BRICS members could hinder their ambitious objective more than any economic rationale.
4. Argentina’s Hesitation: Recent attempts to extend invitations to countries like Argentina brought into focus the internal politics and historical grievances. South Africa’s invitation to Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and others sparked discussions about international relations and political dynamics. Argentina, for example, showed reluctance, with its leadership expressing reservations about BRICS, further highlighting the bloc’s controversial nature.
5. Serbia and Bosnia’s Pivot: Drawing from the Intellinews story, we observe a shift in European geopolitics. Serbian intelligence chief, Aleksandar Vulin, and Milorad Dodik, president of Republika Srpska in Bosnia & Herzegovina, have advocated for their countries to join BRICS instead of seeking EU membership. This, coupled with a recent poll indicating a Serbian inclination towards BRICS, showcases a significant geopolitical swing influenced by the BRICS expansion.

Conclusion

China’s aggressive push to revive and expand BRICS has significant global implications. However, the journey is not without its challenges. Skeptics like Ecclestone question the bloc’s true potential and influence. While some nations are drawn to the allure of the BRICS coalition, others remain hesitant due to geopolitical complexities.

This transformation of BRICS from an economic association to a more politically charged coalition signifies a broader shift in global power dynamics. As nations reevaluate their alliances, the international community will keenly observe BRICS’s next moves and their broader implications.

The political scene in Argentina has been nothing short of unpredictable recently, and the recent presidential primaries were no exception. Taking center stage was Javier Milei, a free-marketeer, who defied odds to claim the title of the unexpected victor. While the news might have sent ripples across the corridors of power, seasoned analysts at Hallgarten & Company have set their sights on Patricia Bullrich as the likely successor in the upcoming October presidential elections.

But here’s the twist: their prediction isn’t hinged on just popular votes. Instead, it’s the geographical electoral maps that seem to paint a more vivid picture of the evolving political dynamics.

Following the primaries, Argentina’s current government seems to be treading on thin ice. This sentiment was further cemented when the national currency plummeted by a concerning 21%. With such a shaky economic backdrop, the attention shifted to the voter turnout.

Despite Argentina’s mandatory voting system, absenteeism loomed large over the primaries. A staggering 30% opted out of casting their vote, marking a decline from the previous 76% turnout four years ago. This “bronca” vote, as it’s popularly termed, mirrors the public’s growing discontent and frustration. The debut of electronic voting machines was far from smooth, with many, including Patricia Bullrich, grappling with malfunctioning machines.

However, it’s not just about casting votes but also about the repercussions of not doing so. The penalties for abstaining from the electoral process, thanks to inflation, might seem negligible in monetary terms. But the real sting lies in bureaucratic roadblocks like potential issues in renewing licenses or changing addresses. Adding another layer to this complex scenario is the vast Argentine diaspora, who were noticeably absent from the primaries but whose leanings are believed to be against the current administration. Their participation in the national elections will indeed be a space to watch.

Delving deeper into the electoral patterns, a standout observation was the overwhelming support from certain regions. Provinces like Corrientes, Entre Rios, and the district of Buenos Aires city became strongholds of opposition support. Clearly, these maps might just hold the key to deciphering the nation’s political pulse.

On a slightly whimsical note, the dark horse Milei isn’t just making headlines for his political pursuits. His peculiar ensemble of five English mastiff dogs, all named after renowned economists, has piqued interest. Additionally, his fervent advocacy for dollarization, once scoffed at by Wall Street but championed by Hallgarten & Company, is garnering attention.

In conclusion, while the primaries have set the stage, the real act will unfold in the October elections. With a potential second round of voting on the horizon, Argentina’s political narrative promises suspense and intrigue. This deep dive by Hallgarten & Company serves as a testament to the multifaceted nature of Argentina’s politics, reminding us that the story often lies beyond just numbers.

Note from the Publisher: The above was written from a Hallgarten & Company Report published today titled, Primaries in Argentina — It’s the Maps, Stupid!

When we were recently writing our review of the takeover battle between Teck Resources Limited (TSX: TECK.A | TSX: TECK.B | NYSE: TECK) and Glencore PLC (LSE: GLEN) a colleague said, “don’t forget to mention the Germanium” and we nearly did. It proved to be an important reminder as Germanium (Gallium) became eminently newsworthy only a few weeks later when China decided to turn off the spigots of both metals as part of the tit-for-tat over Chinese access to Western semiconductor output. The Chinese ban spurred a surge in Wikipedia and Google traffic as pundits and journalists scurried to get au fait with the metals. For us, it was lucky we had been so recently hot off the press with our thoughts. As for Gallium, we happened to be one of the few that also knew where a primary Gallium deposit was hiding in full sight…. Though we were not telling.

In our recent review of the machinations around control of Teck, we noted Glencore’s economy of details, when it came to the metals the merged entity would produce. This became even more poignant when one delves deeper and looks at the critical metals/minerals that emanate from Teck’s facilities particularly in light of Glencore’s role as somewhat of a hunter-gatherer for China. When these metals are brought into the harsh light of day one can see reasons why the Pentagon might fire up the Bat Phone to the White House and then the White House put through a hurried call to Ottawa advising “No way, Jose”.

The chief critical metal at risk under potential Glencore control would have been Germanium. Teck controls the Western world’s supply of Germanium metal with nigh on 30% of production. Germanium metal is used as a semiconductor in transistors and other electronic devices, in optic fiber networks, and in infrared night vision systems for military use. In recent years, consumption of Germanium military grade infra-red lenses has surged and the metal also has applications in highly efficient solar panels used in space. With applications for Germanium metal in defense and Germanium tetrachloride in fiber optics cable the assault on Teck should be raising some eyebrows in defence circles, that is if they even notice.

The DoD of the US, on its own website, cited Nancy Albertson, a chemist and program manager for DLA Strategic Materials as saying “Mainland China pretty much has a chokehold on the market right now, so if it decided to either ramp up the cost or cut us off completely — and that’s not unheard of — that would be a very big issue for us” as she announced an increased effort by the US to recycle Germanium.

The US relies on imports for over 50% of its germanium needs, and nationwide consumption was about 30,000 kilograms in 2020, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The Defence Logistics Agency program is expected to yield 2,200 to 3,000 kilograms of recycled germanium a year — nearly 10% of the nation’s annual need — for use in night-vision and thermal-sensing devices in platforms like Abrams main battle tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Apache helicopters and naval systems.

The criticality of Teck’s output was further evidenced when force majeure was declared some five years ago when one of their furnaces blew up, sending Germanium prices skyrocketing.

While a somewhat old statistic, Reuter cited U.S. Geological Survey data showing that China produced more than 70% of the 155 tonnes of total refined Germanium production in 2016. We doubt this dominance would have changed at all in recent times. As is well-known when it comes to the morality of supplying China with critical metals, Glencore, in the view of many, has all the morals of an alley cat. Can the US allow Glencore to achieve a stranglehold on Teck’s Germanium output? Is this a repeat of the US’s massive own-goal in allowing the sale of Cabot Corporation’s (NYSE: CBT) specialty fluids division to Sinomine (Hong Kong) Rare Metals Resources Co. Limited which gave China dominance of the Cesium market?

Chess or Chinese Roulette?

We made an initial comment to reporters that it was a strategic game of chess which prompted the more learned Chess-fans to ask what the end game might be? But upon further reflection, it seems more like a game of Russian Roulette in which the Chinese keep taking a bullet. Strategically, if the big game is seizing Taiwan then China has made a major blunder. By signaling to the West which metals that the West is vulnerable to a squeeze on supply, it thus prompts the West to take preventative action. This by its very nature means that a surprise swoop on China (accompanied by a shutdown of strategic metals supplies) is defanged as a Blitzkrieg Day plus 1 issue in the West because the West will already have girded its loins against such an eventuality. By a cumulative process of these types of predatory actions (e.g. the Rare Earth export ban to China over the Senkaku Islands dispute in 2011 and now this latest) the West has had its wake-up call and lethargically, but eventually, gotten itself out of bed.

Over and beyond losing the surprise “Gotcha” effect in the event of a Taiwan shooting war, China is facing the loss of markets for its output of these metals on a long-term basis. The metals are not unique to China, with common fly-ash from many coal-fired power plants containing Germanium and similarly, waste flows from zinc and bauxite smelters being also sources for Gallium. China has no special advantage here. It used to be cheap but China has reached the end of “cheap”… something we predicted in an op-ed in The Banker journal as long ago as 2004.

We feel confident that China’s share of both metals’ global market will go spiraling down from here. They can try predatory pricing to try and regain a foothold, but that threat can also be nullified if Western end-users are more inclined to go for secure supplies, over cheap supplies. That change of mindset is the main fallout from these tit-for-tat bans and correspondingly China’s main faux pas in all this.

In these two metals, in particular, they will see that the global challengers to their dominance are not tin-pot Rare Earth promotorial types as in 2011, but rather Teck, RTZ and  Trafigura Beheer B.V./Nyrstar NV (amongst other potential entrants). China should have heeded the variation on the old Pottery Barn rule… you break it, you (don’t) own it.

In a recent InvestorIntel interview, Tracy Weslosky spoke with Christopher Ecclestone, Principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company, regarding China’s new export ban on critical minerals germanium and gallium. The ban, enacted on August 1st, is seen as a strategic retaliation against Western restrictions on key semiconductor supplies to China.

Ecclestone explained this as an extension of the modern “Cold War,” where conflict is expressed through trade embargos, rather than on battlefields. The aim, seemingly, is to disrupt Western semiconductor production by limiting access to essential materials like gallium arsenide, which is critical in chip manufacturing.

Despite China’s dominance in gallium and germanium production (98% and 66% respectively), the U.S. government has been reticent to admit this ‘stranglehold.’ Companies in the West, Ecclestone highlighted, have failed to stockpile these critical metals, leaving them exposed to the current ‘rainy day’ scenario.

However, this new restriction has sounded an alarm for Western companies to reevaluate their dependencies and take necessary actions. Companies like Trafigura Beheer B.V. are already looking at byproduct production of germanium in their zinc refineries. Over time, this could eventually lead to Western self-sufficiency in these metals, negating Chinese leverage.

As Ecclestone concluded, the Cold War may have indeed restarted in the realm of trade. To read Ecclestone’s latest report, “Let the Cold War (re)Begin,” visit the Hallgarten & Company website.

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