2023 has been a rough year for all the EV materials and graphite was no exception. EV battery anodes contain a combination of spherical graphite (sourced from natural flake graphite) and synthetic graphite. Today we take a look at the key trends of 2023 and what we can expect in 2024 and beyond.

2023 graphite trends

A slowdown in the growth rate of EV sales in China along with less demand from the steel industry were mostly to blame for the graphite demand slowdown when compared to 2022. The other key factor was the excess anode capacity that came online during the 2022 China EV boom when EV sales skyrocketed.

China flake graphite prices fell throughout 2023 and have recently risen slightly from their bottom at ~US$550/t. China’s uncoated spherical graphite prices fell to US$2,200/t due to excess supply. China’s synthetic graphite prices were also weaker in 2023, due to slower demand.

A trend in 2023 was the increase in the popularity of synthetic graphite for use in battery anodes, particularly in China. Synthetic graphite prices have typically been much higher than flake graphite prices due to the high energy intensity needed to produce synthetic graphite. However falling energy input costs in 2023 and new capacity resulted in lower synthetic graphite prices and prices much closer to flake graphite. This led to anode producers increasing the ratio of synthetic graphite to spherical graphite in their anodes, and less demand for spherical and flake graphite.

Then in November 2023, the European Union added synthetic graphite to its list of critical materials as part of their Critical Raw Materials Act (“CRMA”).

Finally, in late 2023, China introduced temporary export permits for some graphite products (natural flake graphite, spherical graphite, & synthetic graphite) to apply from December 1, 2023. This has resulted in some recent price increases in the graphite market and a large amount of uncertainty around graphite products supply outside of China. China controls 75% of the global graphite anode supply chain.

The outlook for graphite in 2024

Most analysts are forecasting a fairly balanced graphite market in 2024, with the possibility of some price recovery from the 2023 cyclical lows. UBS tips graphite prices to surge 50% from the 2023 lows and has set its long-term flake graphite price at $850/t. UBS forecasts natural graphite demand rising by six times this decade to reach a demand of 6.3 million tonnes pa, with a deficit forming from 2025.

Others such as Macquarie Research are forecasting graphite deficits to begin in 2024 and increase each year to 2030.

Macquarie Research (as of March 2023) forecasts flake graphite deficits starting in mid 2024

The long-term outlook for graphite

Looking out further graphite demand is set to surge this decade and next due to the expected massive rise in global EV sales and energy stationary storage (“ESS”) battery demand. Below are 3 demand forecasts that give a guide as to what may happen over the long term.

• Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts we will need 97 new 56,000tpa natural flake graphite mines from 2022 to 2035 to meet surging demand.
• The IEA forecasts flake graphite demand to rise 8-25x from 2020 to 2040.
• Trend Investing forecasts flake graphite demand to rise 17x from 2020 to 2037.

Trend Investing forecasts flake graphite demand to increase 17x from 2020 to 2037. The IEA forecasts a 8-25x increase from 2020 to 2040

Closing remarks

While 2023 has been a very tough year for the graphite sector the future looks much brighter, especially beyond 2025 when possible deficits are forecast to increase each year. For now, the flake graphite miners that are low-cost producers and who can develop integrated ‘flake to spherical graphite’ production stand to perform best. Several western graphite companies are rapidly advancing in this direction and are worth following closely.

Those graphite miners that can qualify their product to meet the IRA and/or the CRMA should also be at an advantage, especially with the U.S. Foreign Entity of Concern (“FEOC”) rules for critical materials commencing in 2025.

We will keep you updated on the graphite sector and miners in 2024.

In a recent InvestorNews interview with host Tracy Weslosky, Zentek Ltd.‘s (NASDAQ: ZTEK | TSXV: ZEN) CEO and Director, Greg Fenton, discussed China’s recent move to restrict graphite exports and its potential impact on global supply chains and the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

Concerns about China’s dominance in supplying critical minerals to the EV industry have prompted governments to identify this as a significant risk. Greg said that the recent restrictions on graphite exports highlight the importance of creating a North American battery supply chain. Greg underscored the potential for this situation to significantly alter the EV landscape. Foreseeing long-term growth, Greg discussed why electric vehicle manufacturers will need to diversify their supply chains away from China.

Greg believes these restrictions will shift the focus to North American graphite producers. Highlighting Zentek’s Albany graphite deposit in Ontario, Canada, as a promising source of high-purity graphite, Greg emphasized the need for government and industry investments in North American graphite projects.

To access the complete interview, click here

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About Zentek Ltd.

Zentek is an ISO 13485:2016 certified intellectual property technology company focused on the research, development and commercialization of novel products seeking to give the Company’s commercial partners a competitive advantage by making their products better, safer, and greener.

Zentek’s patented technology platform ZenGUARD™, is shown to have 99-per-cent anti-microbial activity and to significantly increase the bacterial and viral filtration efficiency of both surgical masks and HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) systems. Zentek’s ZenGUARD™ production facility is located in Guelph, Ontario.

Zentek has a global exclusive license to the Aptamer-based platform technology developed by McMaster University which is being jointly developed Zentek and McMaster for both the diagnostic and therapeutic markets.

To learn more about Zentek Ltd., click here

Disclaimer: Zentek Ltd. is an advertorial member of InvestorNews Inc.

This interview, which was produced by InvestorNews Inc. (“InvestorNews”), does not contain, nor does it purport to contain, a summary of all material information concerning the Company, including important disclosure and risk factors associated with the Company, its business and an investment in its securities. InvestorNews offers no representations or warranties that any of the information contained in this interview is accurate or complete.

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Any projections given are principally intended for use as objectives and are not intended, and should not be taken, as assurances that the projected results will be obtained by the Company. The assumptions used may not prove to be accurate and a potential decline in the Company’s financial condition or results of operations may negatively impact the value of its securities. This presentation should not be considered as the giving of investment advice by the Company or any of its directors, officers, agents, employees or advisors. Each person to whom this presentation is made available must make its own independent assessment of the Company after making such investigations and taking such advice as may be deemed necessary. Prospective investors are urged to review the Company’s profile on SedarPlus.ca and to carry out independent investigations in order to determine their interest in investing in the Company.

China to impose some graphite and processed graphite materials ‘export permits’ from December 1, 2023

Last week it was reported that China, the world’s top graphite producer plans to curb exports of key battery material by implementing export permits for some graphite products from December 1 to protect national security. Another report stated: “China graphite export restrictions could hinder ex-China anode development….if it lasts into the longer term, it is likely to accelerate the build-out of a localized graphite and battery anode supply chain outside China.”

Graphite is the number one metal required for lithium-ion batteries making up about a 28% share. It is used in the anode.

The world is very dependent upon China to supply processed graphite material and anodes for Li-ion batteries

The reason why this is huge news in the graphite world is that China produces 67% of global natural flake graphite supply and refines more than 90% of the world’s graphite into active anode material (typically spherical graphite). If China were to deny or delay permits for spherical graphite it will cause major problems for anode manufacturers outside China, such as those in South Korea, Japan, or North America.

China currently produces ~77% of global lithium-ion batteries and 75-80% of global electric cars, thereby completely dominating the industry. If the West is shut out from sourcing processed EV battery materials from China then they will have a major problem producing their own EVs. China plans to prioritize EV battery materials for their own needs. This is why President Biden introduced the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the EU introduced the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. Both are designed to address the shortages in the EV supply chain and the forecast shortages of future supply of critical raw materials. The problem is the IRA has done little to address the supply of raw materials and the EU Critical Raw Materials Act is woefully inadequate and targets fall way short of what will be needed.

Which western graphite companies can rise to meet the challenge to establish an ex-China graphite supply chain

The leading western graphite companies that are working to establish an ex-China supply chain for flake graphite, synthetic graphite, and spherical graphite include:

• Syrah Resources Limited (ASX: SYR) – Largest western flake graphite producer with their 350,000tpa flake graphite capacity Balama Mine in Mozambique. Currently constructing the Vidalia spherical graphite facility in Louisiana, USA with Stage 1 production plans to produce 11,250tpa of spherical graphite. Longer term they plan to expand to 45,000tpa in 2026 and then to >100,000tpa by 2030 with an Europe/Middle East facility. Syrah already has an off-take agreement with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). Syrah’s stock price has surged ~80% higher the past week following the release of the China export permits news.
• Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NYSE: NMG | TSXV: NOU) – Is rapidly progressing their plans for their Matawinie Graphite Mine and Bécancour Battery Anode Material Plant in Quebec, Canada. The company is working with Panasonic to qualify their graphite anode material. Panasonic supplies Tesla with batteries.
• Northern Graphite Corporation (TSXV: NGC | OTCQB: NGPHF) – Owns graphite producing and past producing mines in Quebec, Canada and Namibia. They also own the Bissett Creek graphite Project in Ontario, Canada. The Company state that they are “North America’s Only Significant Natural Graphite Producer”. The Company plans to develop one of the world’s largest battery anode materials facilities in Baie-Comeau Québec with 200,000tpa of capacity.
• NextSource Materials Inc. (TSX: NEXT | OTCQB: NSRCF) – A new graphite producer from their Molo Graphite Mine in Madagascar with Phase 1 capacity of 17,000tpa of flake graphite production and plans to expand to 150,000tpa. The Company’s short term plan is for a Battery Anode Facility in Mauritius and longer term for similar facilities in USA/Canada, UK, EU.
• Magnis Energy Technologies Ltd. (ASX: MNS | OTCQX: MNSEF) – Magnis aims to produce high performance anode materials utilising ultra-high purity natural flake graphite from their Nachu Graphite Project in Tanzania. Magnis’ partially owned U.S.-based subsidiary Imperium3 New York, Inc (“iM3NY”) operates a gigawatt scale lithium-ion battery manufacturing project in Endicott, New York.
• Talga Group Ltd. (ASX: TLG) – Own the integrated mine to anode Vittangi Graphite Project in Sweden. In September 2023 Talga broke ground on their 19,500tpa anode facility, stating “the refinery is projected to be the first commercial anode production in Europe for electric vehicle Li-ion batteries”.
• Novonix Limited (NASDAQ: NVX | ASX: NVX) – Has a production capacity target of up to 20,000 tpa of synthetic graphite anode material from their Tennessee facility in the USA.
• Anovion Technologies (private) – The USA anode producer plans to invest US$800 million to produce a 40,000tpa synthetic graphite anode material facility in Georgia, USA with plans to expand to 150,000tpa by 2030.

Syrah Resources leads the West’s attempt to build an ex-China flake graphite and anode material supply chain

Magnis Energy Technologies is working towards becoming a graphite producer, anode materials producer and is already a small scale JV battery producer in the USA

Closing remarks

The Western world received a loud wake-up call the past week. The China graphite products ‘export permits’ may only serve to restrict or slow down some anode material supply from China, but it puts the West on notice of how dependent they are upon China.

Given the world is rapidly moving to electric vehicles, the West must urgently build up its EV materials supply chains or risk being left behind in the global EV race.

The USA is making some bold moves and the companies discussed in this article are moving in the right direction. Let’s just hope that the western EV supply chain build out accelerates rather than stalls like GM’s latest electric pickup truck plans. I think Americans will want U.S.-branded electric cars and I know Europeans will want European branded electric cars. If we are not careful our only choice one day might be Tesla and Chinese electric cars. Stay tuned.

I have some recurring themes that I tend to write about. I have no idea if people like them or not so I will continue along in my own little vacuum and hope that at least some readers out there find the same things interesting that I do.

One of those themes I like to revisit is clean, sustainable resource acquisition. By that I mean, we can’t just pillage the earth for all the critical battery metals we require simply because it’s a means to an end….well, we can, and currently we do. But I feel that at some point in time, there will be as much scrutiny on how we source these materials as there is on phasing out fossil fuels and reducing overall carbon emissions. At least I’d like to think that’s the case, but who knows if policymakers will take that next step. To me, it seems the end goal of a greener economy is kind of pointless if we don’t look at the whole picture.

Bottom line, in my opinion, we need to be just as concerned about where and how we are acquiring all the copious amounts of raw materials required to transition to a cleaner, greener future or we’re simply trading in one problem for another. Whether companies are recognized for this today, or not for some time to come, I strongly believe they will eventually be rewarded.

That brings me to Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NYSE: NMG | TSXV: NOU), a Québec-based company striving to become a key contributor to the sustainable energy revolution. The Company is working towards developing a fully integrated source of carbon-neutral battery anode material in Québec, Canada for the lithium-ion battery and fuel cell markets, and other value-added graphite products. With excellent ESG standards, the Company aspires to become a strategic supplier to the world’s leading battery and auto manufacturers, providing high-performing and reliable advanced materials while promoting sustainability and supply chain traceability.

The Company’s activities are focused on the planned Matawinie graphite mine and the planned commercial value-added Bécancour Battery Materials Plant, both of which are progressing concurrently toward commercial operations.

The Matawinie graphite property, owned 100% by the Company, consists of 246 mining claims spanning 13,214 hectares, located around 120 km north of Montréal, Québec. An updated feasibility study for this property indicates an annual processing rate of 2.55 million metric tonnes and average annual graphite production of 103,328 metric tonnes. In 2018, the Company began operating a demonstration plant in Saint-Michel-des-Saints to validate the quality and processes of its graphite products, and to serve as a foundation for its Phase-2 battery material plants. Nouveau Monde has initiated steps towards making the Matawinie Mine one of the first all-electric open-pit operations globally, working in collaboration with Caterpillar and governments to achieve electrification in mining and aiming to reduce over 300,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions over the mine’s lifespan.

At the same time, Nouveau Monde is progressing with its Battery Material Plant Project, producing spherical graphite at its Phase-1 facility, and leveraging a proprietary thermochemical purification process to yield graphite with purity levels surpassing 99.95%. The Company has a partnership with Olin Corporation for operational support and raw material supply, and has set up pilot plant purification modules at Olin’s Bécancour, Québec facility. Nouveau Monde owns land in Bécancour to build its own manufacturing plant, projected to produce approximately 46,000 tpa of advanced graphite materials. This is further strengthened by the Québec Government’s battery hub strategy, which has attracted significant industrial players to the area. The Company’s current commercial plans for its Phase-2 Bécancour Battery Material Plant are being advanced in line with a recent Feasibility Study.

Nouveau Monde’s latest quarterly operational update provides valuable insights into the progress being made on both fronts. The Company announced significant advancements in the development of its fully integrated value chain, with the aim of becoming one of the largest natural graphite sources in North America. As the company approaches its Phase-2 development, emphasis is being placed on securing optimal multiyear sales agreements, finalizing technical parameters for the Bécancour Battery Material Plant, enhancing commercial visibility, and ensuring long-term shareholder value. Collaborative testing is ongoing at the Company’s Phase-1 plants alongside potential customers, aiming to optimize process efficiency, inform Phase-2 facility plans, and mitigate risks. Significant partnerships have been established, including a technology collaboration with Caterpillar and a potential long-term agreement with Panasonic Energy. The Company secured US$22 million in a bought deal financing in April to finish Q2 with a cash position of C$59.8 million, while continuing to engage with governmental agencies to optimize project financing.

Despite a slower start to EV sales in 2023, the market saw a 36% YoY increase with further growth expected in the latter part of 2023. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts the global production capacity of lithium-ion batteries to reach 8,930 GWh by 2030, suggesting a significant growth in demand for battery materials, including graphite. Nouveau Monde’s comprehensive production model and strategic advantages, such as carbon-neutrality and regional benefits, place the company in a favorable position to cater to Western markets looking to decrease dependence on Chinese suppliers. It’s not just enough to supply a critical material anymore, it needs to be done sustainably.

Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. trades at a market cap of C$235 million.