XPhyto Therapeutics Corp. (CSE: XPHY | OTCQB: XPHYF | FSE: 4XT) (“XPhyto”) is a bioscience company with a focus on innovating, accelerating and commercializing, disruptive, disease diagnostic and drug delivery technologies. Some examples are diagnostics (COVID-19 testing and  biosensors) and new thin-film drug delivery methods. The company is also developing new active pharmaceutical ingredient manufacturing processes. XPhyto’s specialty is speed to market of commercial innovative medical products.

XPhyto has international expertise with headquarters in Vancouver and operations out of Germany. The Company is currently focused on regulatory approval and commercialization of medical products for European markets.

A summary of XPhyto Therapeutics Corp.’s bioscience accelerator business

Source: XPhyto company presentation

Rapid COVID-19 PCR test launched

On September 8, XPhyto announced the successful  launch into a growing market demand of its 25-minute COVID-19 PCR test (called ‘Covid-ID Lab test’) in Berlin, Germany. This event followed on news announced on March 18, 2021 that XPhyto’s rapid 25-minute COVID-19 PCR test had gained European approval.

XPhyto stated:

“In parallel to the pilot project, we are developing further approaches and services with our partners to offer modular testing and hygiene solutions for larger events, such as concerts, sporting events and conferences……Given our competitive pricing, we are in a strong position to accelerate sales growth in the near term.”

The XPhyto Covid-ID Lab test has great potential for (25 minute) rapid testing at airports, cruise ship terminals, border testing, schools, medical centers, government agencies, public venues and job sites markets. With over 84 million people, Germany is a very important and potentially lucrative market for XPhyto.  XPhyto plans to expand through Europe to service its 748 million people.

Biosensor test for oral disease launched

On August 30, XPhyto announced the launch of its first commercial biosensor test for oral disease. The biosensor test, in the form of a thin-film tab, dissolves on the tongue and if it turns turns bitter after five minutes it is an indication of the presence of ‘oral inflammation.’  The test has been successfully registered with the appropriate German authorities and is ready for partnering with wholesale distribution partners and market launch.

The announcement stated:

“(XPhyto and partner 3a-diagnostics GmbH) successfully registered their first biosensor test in oral inflammation with the German authorities (cosmetic products notification). The easy at-home self-check can be performed without the need for specific medical knowledge or training, analytical equipment or even a power supply. When placed on the tongue, the thin film dissolves and, after 5 minutes, the biosensor releases a bitter taste in case of oral inflammation. The biosensor functions as a quick test for heightened levels of certain bacteria and viruses to check whether a doctor’s visit and further tests are necessary.”

XPhyto believes that biosensors in general, and 3a’s innovative biosensor system in particular, are a promising and reliable platform technology for accurate, early screening and diagnosis of diseases. XPhyto has signed an acquisition agreement with 3a which means XPhyto will acquire all of the outstanding shares of 3a for EUR 3.9 million with a planned closing on or around October 31, 2021. You can read more details about 3a-diagnostics GmbH here.

XPhyto coverage by Zacks Research

On September 28, 2021, Zachs Research gave an initiated coverage on XPhyto and concluded:

“The company is optimistic about the prospects for the COVID–19 test and other products in its pipeline, as noted. While it is difficult to know the revenue arc for XPHYF at this early stage, just based on the sizable need for COVID testing, we believe the current share price of about $1.10 does not reflect the fundamental value of the company’s pipeline and prospects and would anticipate upside if the company continues to advance its candidates. We believe the substantial size of the company’s target markets and the company’s view of the competitive advantages of its diagnostic and delivery platforms suggest strong revenue growth if the company successfully executes its strategy.

……we believe the average price–to–sales multiple of companies in this comparison of 14x provides a valuation benchmark for XPHYF. Therefore, applying a 14x multiple to our $8 million to $14 million 2025E revenue forecast and discounting back at 3% results in a present value of nearly $102 million to $179 million for XPHYF, or a mean value of about $2.00 per share.”

XPhyto’s buy and build strategy showing past acquisitions timeline

Source: XPhyto company presentation

Closing remarks

New bioscience companies need to move quickly and work hard to establish a market share into niche products that can rapidly lead to revenues. To do this the company first needs to spot a strong trend or need, such as COVID-19 rapid testing, and then move fast with a great product to get ahead of competitors.

XPhyto is doing a good job so far of innovating and bringing, in-demand, pharmaceutical products rapidly into the marketplace. Its next step will be to see how quickly the products can achieve a strong uptake and strong revenues.

XPhyto Therapeutics Corp. trades on a market cap of C$95 million with the 3a-diagnostics acquisition due to finalize very soon. This acquisition looks to be the best so far and with COVID-19 testing and the biosensor market doing well it should only boost XPhyto’s near term prospects. Stay tuned.

Analyst Chris Thompson published a piece on eResearch on StageZero Life Sciences Ltd. (TSX: SZLS) this weekend titled, “StageZero Valuation Report Pegs Stock Price Between $0.67 and $14.14”, the sub-header reads Report Assumes Aristotle Revenue Impact Starting in Q3/2021.

As the Publisher of InvestorIntel Corp., we are partial to Chris Thompson content as he is an outstanding guest columnist and knowledgeable host that occasionally shares his talents with InvestorIntel.com. Extensively educated (CFA, MBA, P.Eng) and experienced, if it was up to me I would like to publish all of Chris Thompson’s eResearch reports in their entirety as they are released.

Does this mean I agree with him in his entirety? Hell, no. However, this is where I believe we need to remind the securities regulators that more and more of us are managing our own funds, and having access to more analysis is an example of the real tools we need to arm ourselves and evolve into the well equipped investors we want to be.

It simply makes sense. Why should we rely on savvy Reddit users when a well written report by a knowledgeable analyst can provide more comparative analysis than any chatboard debate can provide?

Presently, compliance regulations keeps both the companies and media from publishing analyst reports direct, and the companies these analysts cover cannot publish these reports on their sites, only the sources who have covered them. This process forces the investor to hunt down these analysts and seek reports direct from the writing source, which they are allowed to distribute as they see fit.

Ideally, I wish that we as investors could source these reports on the exchanges where the company is trading so we can review all of them. And we, as media could compare them and provide what would undoubtedly make some great content for debate and discussion and shut down these boards where anonymity prospers. After all, the companies and the media cannot act so irresponsibly, why should these chatboards be able to do this?

This is one of the reasons why our discussions are monitored on InvestorIntel.com.

While I appreciate that judging the talents of an analyst goes well beyond their writing competency and their experience, and includes tracking their record for performance, it is my opinion that the best analysts should be allowed to receive a fan base once they prove a track record for doing this incredibly important job in the investment food chain.

More and more people are investing their own funds and managing their own money, when are we going to allow the retail audience to be equipped with the same tools as the professionals?

Please keep in mind that it is important to note that we as financial media, while allowed to report on these valuations, must be extraordinarily cautious to remind our readers that we are not licensed investment advisors and many of our comments must be limited to creative disclaimers to ensure that if the share price does not achieve the goals outlined in any valuation report that we have clearly stated that these numbers are not ours, but of the source cited and that we are neither liable or responsible.

But I believe (again, this is an opinion) that we do our investors a disservice by not being able to have a place where all of the research is published so that we may follow how the analyst formed their conclusion.

This weekend I asked Chris Thompson to explain how he did this Valuation Report on StageZero. He responded with a very thorough summary, which I enjoyed and thought I would share with you.

Chris Thompson response to the StageZero Valuation Report process was to provide the following summary:

The Valuation Report use three valuation methodologies to calculate the price per share for StageZero: (1) Comparative Company Analysis using Revenue, (2) Prior Mergers and Acquisitions Analysis, and (3) Discounted Cash Flow.

Revenue from Aristotle® Fuels Valuation

StageZero is a life science and telehealth company that recently launched Aristotle®, which is its next generation, proprietary clinical test for the early detection of cancer.

Aristotle® is the first-ever multi-cancer panel that simultaneously screens for 10 cancers from a single sample of blood with high sensitivity and specificity for each cancer.

StageZero commercially launched Aristotle® in April and, on the same day, announced the acquisition of Health Clinics and Care Oncology (HC Companies) to launch an early cancer diagnostic program under the trade name AVRT that is based on Aristotle®.

Revenue Assumptions

In the valuation report, eResearch analyst Chris Thompson (me) assumed that StageZero’s Aristotle® testing revenue will commence in the third quarter this year and StageZero will close the acquisition of the HC Companies in 2021.

In addition, StageZero’s COVID-19 testing solutions generated revenue of over US$6.5 million in the past three quarters, and I expect this revenue to continue for the rest of 2021.

From these assumptions, we estimated StageZero will generate US$16.7 million of revenue in 2021 and will also book a one-year forward revenue of US$23.0 million.

Stock Price Valuation Summary

eResearch used the one-year forward revenue estimate of US$23.0 million as a baseline and estimated revenue growth and EBITDA margins for the next five years, as well as calculating revenue multiples from various sources, with all assumptions outlined in the valuation report.

The three valuations methods are summarized here and presented in the table below:

1. Revenue Multiples (3x to 12x revenue): eResearch estimated that StageZero’s stock price should be in the range of C$1.24 to C$3.99.
2. Prior Mergers & Acquisitions (1.2x to 45.x revenue): eResearch estimated that StageZero’s stock price should be in the range of C$0.67 to C$14.14.
3. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method: eResearch estimated that StageZero’s stock price should be C$3.18 in one year.

Overall, the calculations estimated StageZero’s stock price valuation between C$0.67 and C$14.14.

Final Thoughts

With StageZero’s recent C$7.2 million financing strengthening its Balance Sheet and revenue from the COVID-19 testing bringing in additional cash flow, the company should have funds to complete the HC Companies acquisition and start commercializing Aristotle®.

StageZero closed Friday at C$0.48 and currently has a Market Cap of less than C$32 million.

The valuation estimates are well above StageZero’s current stock price and illustrate the stock price’s upside potential.

FIGURE 1: Summary of Stock Price Valuations

So I must leave today’s piece with a Disclaimer that we are not endorsing this Valuation Report and that StageZero is indeed an advertorial client for InvestorIntel Corp. To review the Disclaimers on this eResearch Valuation Report, please go the Source.

Note from the Publisher: We will continue to review ways in which we can provide regular updates on reports to cultivate discussion and debate on the reports, their writers and of course – the companies they are covering. Thank you for visiting InvestorIntel.com!

StageZero Life Sciences Ltd. (TSX: SZLS) is a life science and telehealth company that recently launched Aristotle®, which is its next-generation, proprietary clinical test for the early detection of cancer. From one blood sample, it can screen for 10 cancers.

On the same day as it officially launched Aristotle®, StageZero announced that it entered into a Letter of Intent (LOI) to purchase Health Clinics Limited and Health Clinics USA Corp. (together, the “HC Companies”).

Founded in London, England in 2013, the HC Companies use telemedicine to provide clinical services across Europe and North America.

Under the trade name Care Oncology Clinics, the HC Companies offer cancer (oncology) treatment services and, under the trade name AVRT, focus on early disease detection utilizing proprietary treatments.

James Howard-Tripp, Chairman and CEO of StageZero, explained the rationale behind the transaction,

“Together with Health Clinics, we are taking three of the highest growth areas within healthcare – liquid biopsy, early detection of disease and telemedicine – and combining them into one innovative company that with ground-breaking technology, will find disease early (as opposed to late and with presentation of symptoms), diagnose and treat, or diagnose and seek to prevent late stage disease, with a telemedicine reach in both North America and the UK/Europe.”

According to market research by Fortune Business Insights, the Telehealth market is estimated to be US$559 billion by 2027 and Reports & Data estimates the Early Disease Detection market to be worth US$115 billion by 2027.

The continued rise of cancer cases and deaths has shifted the attention towards the adoption of early detection and diagnosis techniques for cancer, to help lower health costs and increase survival rates.

Source: StageZero Company Presentation (April 1, 2021)

StageZero – From Point Solution to Circle of Care

With the COVID-19 pandemic, many physician practices are closed, so patients are not visiting their doctors in person but are connecting via telehealth.

To illustrate the dramatic decrease, according to an article last month by the National Cancer Institute, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp decrease in the number of cancer screening tests. One example from Massachusetts General Brigham Hospital recorded a 74% decrease in cancer screening tests during the same 3-month period in 2019 (pre-pandemic) versus 2020.

Unlike COVID-19 tests, cancer tests in the U.S. have to be prescribed by a physician. Therefore StageZero needed to find a way to reach patients with doctor support.

The HC Companies acquisition immediately filled this requirement and more, as it provides an existing network of physicians as well as patients, a marketing group, and a 24/7 support team.

StageZero believes that launching Aristotle via AVRT will have a bigger impact than trying to launch a stand-alone cancer-detection service and positions it uniquely in the market.

In addition, the Company commented that the release of Aristotle® via AVRT is just the first step and StageZero will continue to develop a broader market for the product including physician networks, health care insurance providers, and employers.

StageZero’s new cancer-testing platform Aristotle® becomes integrated with HC Companies’ AVRT service. The AVRT program focuses on finding diseases early, notably cancer, and then would work with the primary care physicians and oncologists of HC Companies’ Care Oncology Clinics to establish appropriate treatment.

Therefore StageZero will have a fully integrated telehealth platform that supports both its cancer diagnostics program as well as treatment services – creating the “Circle of Care” – and now multiple revenue streams.

Source: StageZero Company Presentation (April 1, 2021)

Lab Expansion for COVID-19 and Aristotle® Testing

StageZero continues to expand its CAP-accredited and CLIA certified high complexity reference laboratory in Richmond, Virginia. Being CAP-accredited and CLIA certified ensures that the testing facilities and test results are meeting or exceeding the industry standards for clinical laboratory testing.

Last year, to help out during the COVID-19 crisis, StageZero launched a COVID-19 testing service, offering both the serology point-of-care and lab-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests.

The Company’s revenue benefited from offering various COVID-19 tests as fourth-quarter 2020 results released last month had revenue at US$2.6 million, up 77% quarter-over-quarter and up over 5,000% from the same period last year.

StageZero forecasted that COVID-19 testing-related revenue should be even higher in the first quarter of 2021.

Expanded Testing in Canada with Ichor Blood Services

Yesterday, StageZero announced that its partner Ichor Blood Services will distribute StageZero’s COVID-19 PCR saliva test kits through Canadian retail outlets in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario starting immediately.

James Howard-Tripp commented: “StageZero is proud to make these kits available to Canadians to enable immediate and convenient PCR testing, at home, via supervised telehealth, for families, companies, and travelers. COVID-19 PCR testing is considered the gold standard for helping to determine if someone is infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and saliva-based PCR testing is an easy, non-invasive way to collect a sample”.

Final Thoughts

The recent C$7.2 million financing has strengthened the Balance Sheet and revenue from the COVID-19 testing brings additional cash flow that should enable the Company to meet its current obligations, complete the HC Companies acquisition, and commercialize its new offering.

StageZero should continue to benefit from the market’s shift to telehealth and book revenue growth from its COVID-19 testing service and product offering.

With the growing need for both COVID-19 and cancer testing, revenue could double for the Company this year.

StageZero closed today at C$0.77, up 22% on the day, and currently has a Market Cap of over C$41.2 million.

StageZero Life Sciences Ltd. (TSX: SZLS) (‘StageZero’) has been developing their Aristotle 10 in 1 cancer screening test for about 20 years with a successful history of validation to date. Excitement is building with the launch being widely anticipated and set to occur in Q1, 2021, assuming final validation completes successfully. Meanwhile StageZero continues to spread their testing network for their range of COVID-19 tests and has introduced COVID-19 travel testing. StageZero’s focus is in the USA with some business also in Canada.

During Q3 2020 StageZero significantly expanded the number of groups they are working with to 55 (up from only 5 in Q2, including Mercer VIP program). This is boosting revenue and building networks, all significant positives for StageZero. StageZero stated in their November 2020 update that they have increased revenue in Q3 by more than four times all of 2019 and have received C$1.5 million in cash, which significantly exceeds projected operating costs of C$900,000 per quarter.

Chairman and CEO, James Howard-Tripp, stated: “We have significantly upgraded our capabilities through increasing the number of laboratory staff, aggressively building up an inventory of supplies, paying down the accounts payable and introducing new tests. We have also greatly increased the number of groups we are now testing for and expect this to contribute to revenue growth as we move forward.”

COVID-19 saliva testing and COVID-19 travel testing

I discussed StageZero’s COVID-19 new saliva testing here, where I called it a game changer simply because people would much prefer a COVID-19 saliva test than the very uncomfortable nasal probe test. StageZero continues to rollout saliva testing supported by their telehealth platform to ensure testing accuracy and compliance.

COVID-19 travel testing has commenced for US and Canadian travelers. To date the service is available for those traveling to Barbados, Hawaii, and China.

StageZero also recently introduced a respiratory panel test (testing for 18 virus and 2 bacteria).

All of this is achieving two main purposes for StageZero – A growth in their distribution networks, and a boost to revenues.

StageZero introduces COVID-19 travel testing

Source

StageZero ‘Aristotle’ 10 in 1 cancer test looks set to launch in Q1 2021

As discussed previously here, Aristotle is a revolutionary way of diagnosing cancer early. Aristotle is StageZero’s 10 in 1 cancer panel test that uses just one blood sample to test for 10 common cancers.

StageZero’s revolutionary ‘Aristotle’ tests for 10 common cancers in 1 test

Source

​Dietrich Stephan, CEO and Founder of LifeXVentures™, Professor of Human Genomics, stated:

“StageZero Life Sciences, one of the pioneers of the liquid biopsy, has developed the ‘holy-grail’ – a suite of tests that have the correct sensitivity and specificity to detect cancer early and perform correctly as a screening tool at the population level.”

Certainly if StageZero can successfully launch, grow, and expand their Aristotle testing in 2021 and beyond; the upside for the stock price could potentially be spectacular. Note this is assuming the final stage validation of Aristotle completes successfully.

StageZero corporate summary from the latest analyst’s call on Dec. 8 2020

Source

Closing remarks

StageZero is growing very fast right now due to the rapid growth in their COVID-19 testing, boosted by having their own telehealth platform. A combination of this increased cash flow and a recent C$7.2 million equity raising means StageZero is fully funded for their highly anticipated Aristotle marketing and launch in Q1 2021.

The launch and potential success of Aristotle starting in early 2021 is very exciting. Brokerage firm Clarus Securities wrote a report recently titled: “StageZero Life Sciences could achieve a billion dollar market cap: Clarus.” Given the current market cap of StageZero is just C$33.6 million that is a huge call. The broker firm also put an initial price target for StageZero of $0.50 before the 8:1 stock consolidation, which equates to C$4.00 today. It should also be noted Clarus Securities Inc. was involved in the recent C$7.2 million raise.

It certainly appears that investors should consider moving quickly as 2021 has the potential to be a blockbuster year for StageZero Life Sciences.

Disclosure: The author is long StageZero Life Sciences (TSX: SZLS).

Nobody likes a COVID-19 nasal swab test that pushes a probe way up into your nose nearly reaching your brain. StageZero Life Sciences Ltd. (TSX: SZLS) (‘StageZero’) has released a COVID-19 saliva PCR test in the USA which is so much more easier and more comfortable to do. It can even be mailed to you and done at your home.

In news just released yesterday, StageZero released their new COVID-19 Saliva PCR test in the USA and Canada. Since May 2020, StageZero has been offering nasopharyngeal swab-based PCR tests and serology tests for COVID-19. The good news is that StageZero has now added a saliva test and will shortly introduce an antigen test and a full viral respiratory panel to its test offering. The test is FDA approved under the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) clearance. All the patient has to do is simply fill a tube with their own saliva, label it, and send it to the StageZero lab for testing.

COVID-19 PCR test – Uncomfortable nasal swab versus simple saliva testing

Source

Chairman and CEO of StageZero, James Howard-Tripp, says: “Every COVID testing lab, and Government, is striving to make testing more accessible and easier to do. Saliva as a specimen, done correctly, is scientifically as accurate as swabs but easier to collect and allows us to reach patients at home.”

Back in May when StageZero first introduced the nasal swab tests I wrote about the massive worldwide demand for COVID-19 testing. I quoted a report by Harvard University stating that the US needs to be able to test 5 million people per day to safely begin to reopen their economy by June 2020. That was when there were only 30,000 new cases per day in the USA.

Fast forward to today and there are now about 45,000 new COVID-19 cases per day in the US, and about 1 million new COVID-19 tests performed every day. But really the need for testing remains much higher.

US daily COVID-19 tests tracker by John Hopkins – About 1 million tests per day

Source

StageZero will continue to offer a selection of COVID-19 testing summarized as:

• Salvia PCR tests to detect the SARS-CoV-2 RNA and then sent to the StageZero Virginia lab for results processing. Ideal for very early stage detection.
• Antigen testing for immediate results. This works by testing if a patient has developed antibodies to COVID-19. It is best for the rapid screening of symptomatic patients.
• A Respiratory Panel PCR-based test for 18 viruses and two respiratory bacteria. It will screen for Influenza A, Influenza B, RSV and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

StageZero now offers a complete range of COVID-19 tests at a time when demand for testing is enormous. My view is that patient’s will be much more willing to undergo a saliva test than the previous nasal swab testing, as well as the possibility of completing a test from home. It is also much more suitable for people in remote areas.

Looking ahead in the very near term, StageZero will commence an offering with their revolutionary Aristotle® screening test for 10 cancers from a single sample of blood. You can read more about that here.

Following the recent share consolidation StageZero will now “prepare for a possible future listing on NASDAQ or other senior US stock exchange“.  Both of these events should be strong catalysts to help the stock price potentially move higher.

StageZero Life Sciences trades with a market cap of just C$41 million. Analyst’s consensus price target is C$4.00, so there is still plenty of potential upside ahead given the current stock price of C$0.84.

Disclaimer: Matt Bohlsen is a shareholder of StageZero Life Sciences Ltd. (TSX: SZLS)