In today’s monthly edition of Hallgarten & Co.‘s “Resources Monthly” for March 2024, titled “Debasing Criticality’s Currency,” the firm offers an intricate analysis of the evolving landscape in the critical metals and minerals sector. The publication navigates through the performance of various commodities, assessing geopolitical impacts and strategic movements by both governments and corporations within the space.

The issue begins with an overview of the metals market, noting, “Gold added massively to its price during the month as international tensions lit a fire under the price.” It goes on to describe the broader metals market, mentioning that “Inflation has stabilized and, in many places, has retreated,” and highlighting uranium’s unique position in the current market context. The analysis of tin and tungsten prices, alongside silver’s momentum, provides a comprehensive picture of the metals market dynamics.

The narrative shifts to critique the expansion of critical metals lists by governments, which the report suggests dilutes the actual concept of criticality. The publication humorously recounts instances where “Every man, and his dog, now thinks he has a critical metal,” pointing out the somewhat arbitrary expansion of these lists. It highlights a specific case where boron was lobbied to be recognized as a critical mineral due to its wide applications, despite there being “no shortage of Boron” and the US producing a significant portion of the global supply.

Further analysis is provided on regional strategies to promote local mining prospects through critical metals lists, with particular emphasis on the practices in Ontario, Quebec, and Australia. The report skeptically asks, “What are the criteria for inclusion beyond a desire to feather the nest of some projects?” pointing out the lack of genuine supply concerns for many of the metals being promoted.

On the corporate front, Hallgarten & Co. updates its Model Resources Portfolio, notably adding Applied Graphite Technologies Corporation (TSXV: AGT), citing the company’s promising position in the graphite market in Sri Lanka. The discussion extends to graphite mining’s prominence in Africa, with Tanzania and Mozambique mentioned as key players. Blencowe Resources PLC (LSE: BRES), with its significant graphite project in Uganda, is identified as a particularly promising investment.

Alphamin Resources Corp.‘s (TSXV: AFM) favorable position in the tin market is detailed, with the firm’s operational expansion poised to significantly increase its production capacity. Sheffield Resources Limited‘s (ASX: SFX) strategic investment in Capital Metals PLC (LSE: CMET) for the development of mineral sands in Sri Lanka is another highlight, demonstrating the firm’s focus on diversifying its investment portfolio. The issue concludes with a critique of the TSX 30, described as “nothing more than a ‘List of Successful Promotes’, not an index at all.” This critical view underscores the skepticism Hallgarten & Co. holds towards promotional tools that may not accurately reflect the genuine performance or potential of listed companies. To access this Hallgarten + Co. Report, click here

One of the bigger trends of 2023 looks like being the reopening of China following 3 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are several ways to play this thematic – Chinese funds/ETFs, iron ore, but how about tin? The tin price is up a staggering 22.76% over the past month (at the time of writing).

Trading Economics states: “Tin futures were trading around the $30,000 per tonne mark, a level not seen since June 2022, as top consumer China made efforts to reopen and support its economy, thus lifting the outlook for demand.”

The 10 year tin price chart shows tin prices recovering in 2023 now at US$29,536/t

Source: Trading Economics

Tin is a key metal for the green energy transition as it is used in electric vehicles and solar panels. This is mostly because tin is used in solder (49% of tin demand comes from solder). Solder is used in practically every electronic product in the world today. As production and demand for consumer electronics recover in China that bodes well for tin prices.

Tin is the hidden green energy transition and consumer electronics metal of today and the future

Source: International Tin Association

Alphamin Resources Corp.

Alphamin Resources Corp. (TSXV: AFM) (Alphamin) currently produces ~4% of the world’s tin (Sn), or ~12,000tpa. Alphamin state: “At a tin grade of roughly 4.5%, Mpama North is the world’s highest-grade tin resource – about four times higher than most other operating tin mines in the world.”

Alphamin is a low-cost tin concentrate producer from its high-grade deposit at Mpama North at their 84.1% owned Bisie tin mine in the DRC.

The 2022 Resource estimate is an Indicated Resource of 0.84 million tonnes at 2.53% Sn (21,400 contained tonnes of Sn) and an Inferred Resource of 4.99 million tonnes at 2.5% Sn (124,750 contained tonnes of Sn). Alphamin has recently managed to increase the Mpama North Resource as you can view in the video here.

The exciting part is that Alphamin is a low cost producer so is nicely leveraged to tin prices. Even better is that Alphamin intends to expand the mine’s production from 12,000tpa Sn to ~20,000tpa Sn from FY2024, which would equate to about 7% of the world’s tin supply.

As announced in October 2022, Alphamin’s Mpama South development project is progressing according to plan. Alphamin stated: “The project is progressing on schedule for targeted commissioning in December 2023. Overall project completion is at 18.6%, and 84.3% of the procurement requirements have been finalised and ordered. The project is not expected to exceed its total cost estimate of US$116 million.”

Alphamin’s milestones and goals and Mpama North & Mpama South shown below

Source: Alphamin company presentation

Alphamin exploration continues

In addition to drilling for resource extensions at Mpama North and Mpama South, Alphamin is exploring for more tin deposits on its license areas. The Bisie Ridge Phase 1 new discovery has been accelerated with ~90 drill holes planned on six highly anomalous targets, following which a Phase 2 campaign will delineate any discoveries or else in fill the most prospective targets.

Closing remarks

Alphamin Resources is a pure tin play highly leveraged to the tin price. Being a low cost producer allows Alphamin to remain profitable throughout the tin price cycle. As China reopens early price indications are suggesting 2023 will be a good year for tin, and hence the quality tin miners.

If Alphamin can successfully bring on Mpama South into production and further grow their resource, then the outlook is very bright for Alphamin this decade.

Alphamin Resources trades on a market cap of C$1.273 billion and a PE of 8.33. One to watch out for in 2023, especially if tin prices keep rising.

In this InvestorIntel interview, host Tracy Weslosky talks to Alphamin Resources Corp.‘s (TSXV: AFM) CEO Maritz Smith about their recent news, including an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) and Mineral Reserve estimation for their Mpama North Mine and a declared dividend for shareholders. Alpahmin produces about 4% of the world’s mined tin from its high-grade operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In the interview, which can also be viewed in full on the InvestorIntel YouTube channel (click here to access InvestorChannel.com), Maritz tells InvestorIntel that the result of Alphamin’s updated Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve estimates and updated life of mine schedule is that all contained tin depleted by mining since 31 December 2019 has been replaced in the new LoM schedule for the Mpama North Mine. “The Mpama North mine is really the backbone for where we want to go,” Maritz says. “This mine was commissioned in 2019 we increased its production from around 10,000 tonnes of tin a year to 12,000 tonnes of tin a year, and it’s important that this mine continues to deliver consistently for us in terms of production and sales.”

In a market that having trouble keeping up with tin demand, Maritz says that “we are on a growth path of unlocking additional tin resources which will lead to additional tin production… because we believe the tin market has a significant supply issue.”

Talking about the recent dividends paid by Alphamin, Maritz tells Tracy that “in addition to our various growth initiatives which we’re funding organically from our balance sheet, we have commenced declaring dividends to our shareholders” with the first dividend declared in February 2022 and a second “At the moment we’re running at about an eight percent dividend yield.”

To access the full InvestorIntel interview, click here

Don’t miss other InvestorIntel interviews. Subscribe to the InvestorIntel YouTube channel by clicking here.

About Alphamin Resources Corp.

When I last wrote about one of the highest grade tin producers, with production of roughly 4% of global volume, their share price was C$0.69/share. That was in July, 2021. Yesterday, this company’s stock closed at, wait for it, C$0.69/share. What have they done in the interim? Increase cash and cash equivalents by US$124 million to US$147 million, reduce debt to almost zero (US$9 million at June 30, 2022), declare a dividend of roughly 4% and announce plans to increase production to 6% of global volume by 2024. Naturally, this left me a little confused, so I think we should have a closer look at what’s going on here.

The company in question is Alphamin Resources Corp. (TSX: AFM), a low cost tin concentrate producer from its high grade deposit at Mpama North on its mining and exploration licenses covering a total of 1,270km² in the North Kivu Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). At a tin grade of roughly 4.5%, Mpama North is the world’s highest-grade tin resource – about four times higher than most other operating tin mines in the world. It is also one of the largest tin mines outside of China or Indonesia.

The Company recently announced Q2 results, which were very positive, showing quarter-over-quarter growth in ore processed (+7%), tin produced (+4%) and a reduction in AISC (-7%). A slightly lower tin grade processed for the quarter (-2%) coupled with a materially lower price (-19%) led to a marked drop in EBITDA (-32%). But we’re still talking about a very positive quarter which allowed the Company to add US$6.5 million to cash and cash equivalents even after an incremental tax hit of US$11.7 million due to a special “superprofit tax” applied by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). And on top of this Alphamin announced an interim dividend for FY 2022 of C$0.03/share. I like their use of the term “interim” as it implies, at least to me, that there could be more to come before the year is over.

As part of corporate plans to further expand production, this week the Company announced an updated Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve estimates along with an updated life of mine schedule (LoM) for the Mpama North Mine. Without getting into all the numbers, the press release can be summarized by saying all the work Alphamin has done has resulted in all contained tin depleted since December 31, 2019 has been replaced in the new LoM schedule. The 154.5kt contained tin in the updated LoM versus the previous 154.2kt has also been accompanied by a valuable grade increase of 19.6% to 4.78% Sn from 4.00% Sn previously scheduled. In a nutshell, before we even get into the reserve adds from the Mpama South project, Alphamin is expanding Mpama North as quickly as it is mining it. I find this reasonably impressive when you consider it accounts for 4% of global production.

As for Mpama South, the Company stated with its Q2 guidance that exploration drilling delivered an additional 124,700t contained tin in inferred Resource and 21,400t contained tin in indicated Resource at Mpama South. Mine development of the Mpama South deposit (adjacent to Mpama North) has commenced and is expected to increase annual contained tin production from the current 12,000tpa to ~20,000tpa, approximating 6.6% of the world’s mined tin, effective FY2024. This is critical given Alphamin states that according to the International Tin Association there is a tin supply deficit forecast for the foreseeable future.

I couldn’t find this forecast myself (perhaps it’s behind a pay wall), however, the logic behind it seems sound. Four countries currently produce 75% of global tin concentrate and they all appear to be facing some sort of headwind. Chinese mines are maturing and are facing stricter environmental laws (but the cynic in me would suggest the latter is only an issue in a balanced to over supplied market).

Indonesian on-shore mining is declining and export bans are looming. Myanmar’s high-grade surface material is almost depleted and they are now moving into lower grade underground mines, which completely overlooks the political turmoil where the military junta is simply executing anyone opposing them. And Peru has commissioned tailings retreatment in an attempt to restore their declining production profile to levels from 10 years ago.

Source: International Tin Association

Returning to my opening challenge of why is it that the stock price is the same as 13 months ago, all I can suggest is that perhaps it’s the fact that tin prices today are US$24,675/t versus the July 15, 2021 close of US$33,510. If you are simply trading Alphamin as a proxy for tin prices then I guess it sort of makes sense that all the success the Company has achieved over the last year is offset by lower commodity prices — this formula is perhaps reasonable.

Tin prices have dipped recently but are still up over 100% from where they were just two and a half years ago. This means that tin producers continue to do extremely well in this high price environment.

Today’s company has been achieving near record tin production and selling prices. This has resulted in very strong revenue and EBITDA results over the past year. Plus they have been growing their resource and have plans to further expand production.

The company is Alphamin Resources Corp. (TSXV: AFM) (Alphamin). Alphamin is a high grade, low cost, tin concentrate producer at its Mpama North Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Alphamin has the highest grade tin resource globally with a Resource Reserve of 3.33MT @ 4.01% Sn (tin) resulting in 133.4 kt of contained tin. Alphamin’s production equates to ~4% of the world’s mined tin.

Near-record tin production, sales and EBITDA in 2021 and Q1, 2022

As reported on May 13, 2022, Alphamin achieved 3,061 tonnes of tin production in Q1, 2022, boosted by recoveries improving from 75% to 78%. Contained tin sales increased by 9% to 3,336 tonnes at an average tin price of US$43,834/t. The AISC of contained tin sold during Q1 2022 increased by 4% to US$15,782/t. Alphamin stated: “As a result of steady production, good cost control and higher revenue, EBITDA for Q1 2022 amounted to US$98.1 million, up 32% from US$74.3 million the previous quarter.”

Growing their resource at Mpama South

As announced on April 4, 2022, Alphamin increased the Inferred Resource at Mpama South by 75%. The Mpama South Mineral Resource is now an Indicated 0.85Mt @ 2.55% Sn (21.5kt contained tin) and Inferred 3.42Mt @ 2.45% Sn (83.7kt contained tin).

Mpama North also had some excellent recent drill results from hole MND019: 14.4 metres @ 21.75% Sn from 432.2 metres, including 11.0 metres @ 27.81%from 432.2 metres.

Mpama South resource model

Source: Alphamin Resources news April 4, 2022

Mpama PEA and tin production expansion plans

Alphamin announced a very positive PEA for Mpama South on March 7, 2022. Alphamin CEO Maritz Smith commented:

“We are delighted to declare a Maiden Mineral Resource estimate and the outcome of a PEA study on Mpama South. The PEA quantifies the potentially value accretive economics of expanding production with the development of the adjacent Mpama South mine. Our current producing Mpama North mine absorbs large fixed costs, which facilitates incremental production from Mpama South at a competitive marginal cost. Developing Mpama South would bring Alphamin closer to its vision of becoming one of the world’s largest low-cost tin producers.”

Alphamin announced a positive PEA for the Mpama South project

Source: Alphamin news on March 7, 2022

Alphamin plans to increase annual contained tin production from the current 12,000tpa to ~20,000tpa (from FY2024), which equates to ~6.6% of the world’s mined tin. The estimated capital development cost is US$116 million. First tin production from Mpama South is targeted for December 2023.

Closing remarks

Alphamin has been producing strong revenues from tin production at their DRC tin mine. All of this has allowed the Company to rapidly grow their resource and announce a very large expansion plan from 12,000tpa to 20,000tpa, set to begin ramping from December 2023. This equates to a 66% increase in production.

Looking at Alphamin’s market cap it is currently at C$1.27 billion and trades on a 2022 PE of only 6.59, partially due to tin prices being lower in 2022. Not bad for a company set to rapidly grow production in 2024. Some increased risk due to the DRC location. Stay tuned.

In a recent InvestorIntel interview, Byron King spoke with Maritz Smith, CEO of Alphamin Resources Corp. (TSXV: AFM) about achieving record fourth quarter EBITDA and production, and about how Alphamin is positioned to become one of the world’s largest low-cost tin producers.

In this InvestorIntel interview, which may also be viewed on YouTube (click here to subscribe to the InvestorIntel Channel), Maritz Smith said that tin is a strategic metal “without which technology cannot exist” and went on to highlight the supply constraints in the tin market because of decades of underinvestment in exploration and development of new tin mines. “Alphamin’s mine is the first major tin mine that has been developed in the last 40 years,” he added. As a producer of 4% of the world’s mined tin, Maritz provided an update on Alphamin’s maiden mineral resource estimate and positive PEA for their Mpama South Mine.

To watch the full interview, click here.

About Alphamin Resources Corp.

The tin price boom continues with the price now at US$43,023/t, up ~3.5x from the 2020 low. The main drivers have been surging tin demand from the electronics and green energy sectors and a limited supply.

Tin is mostly used as solder, particularly in photovoltaic installations, electric vehicles, and electronics. The good thing about tin is that tin solder prices can go up, but that, so far, has had minimal impact on a company’s costs. The biggest producers of tin are China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Peru, Thailand, Bolivia and Myanmar.

According to the International Tin Association (“ITA”), the global tin market deficit is forecast to rise to 12,700t in 2022, from a 10,200t deficit in 2021. The ITA says that a US$30,000/t tin price is required to incentivize additional supply in response to demand growth.

Today’s company is riding the wave of the tin price boom with increasing production from its Mpama North Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC.

Tin prices – 10 year chart

Source: Trading Economics

Alphamin Resources Corp. (TSXV: AFM) (“Alphamin”) stock price is up exactly 100% in the past year thanks to booming tin prices and its growing production.

Alphamin is a high grade, low cost, tin concentrate producer at its Mpama North Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Alphamin has the highest-grade tin resource, globally, with a Resource Reserve of 3.33MT @ 4.01% Sn (tin) resulting in 133.4 kt of contained tin. Alphamin’s production equates to ~4% of the world’s mined tin.

Alphamin state:

Source: Alphamin website

Q4, 2021 results from Alphamin were a knockout. The Company announced the following:

• “Contained tin production up 10% from the prior quarter to 3,114 tons
• Contained tin sales up 13% from the prior quarter to 3,056 tons
• Record Q4 EBITDA⁴ guidance of US$74 million, up 38% from prior quarter actual
• Net cash position increases to US$68 million
• FY2021 dividend of CAD$0.03 per share declared.”

The 3,114 tons in Q4 2021 puts Alphamin on an annual run rate of 12,456 tons pa. At current spot prices of US$43,023 Alphamin would be on track for another year of record revenues (~US$535 million) in 2022. In the above Q4 release the Company guided cautiously for 12,000t of production in 2022. There was also mention of an ongoing drilling campaign with six rigs on-site.

On February 1, 2022, Alphamin announced the results of the above-mentioned drilling campaign. Results were again spectacular and included:

• “Mpama South high-grade assay results² received, including BGH079 which is the best drillhole assayed to date at Mpama South by contained tin: BGH079: 15.6 metres @ 5.00% Sn from 290.2 metres, including 10.0 metres @ 6.1% from 291.1 metres…….
• Mpama North high-grade assay results² received, including MND011 which is the second best drillhole assayed to date at Mpama North by contained tin: MND011: 19.6 metres @ 17.16% Sn from 419.3 metres, including 14.5 metres @ 23.0%.”

Imagine the excitement drilling “14.5 metres @ 23.0% tin (“Sn”) when tin prices are at US$43,023/t.

Mpama South is shaping up to potentially be another large high-grade resource – Maiden Resource due soon

Source: Alphamin news Feb. 1, 2022

Next steps

The next step for Alphamin is the release of a Maiden Mineral Resource estimation for Mpama South due in Q1 2022. Following this will be quarterly results throughout 2022.

Alphamin investment highlights

Source: Alphamin company presentation

Closing remarks

It is a great time to be a tin producer. Even better if you are a high-grade, low-cost, tin producer expanding production. And even better again if you can drill into 23% tin grades and grow your resource.

2022 is shaping up to be another very good year for Alphamin Resources. The Company trades on a market cap of ~US$1.3 billion up over 36% on when I wrote on them in Sept. 2021 on a then market cap of C$953 million. Stay tuned for the Mpama South Maiden Resource release soon.

In a recent InvestorIntel interview, Tracy Weslosky spoke with Maritz Smith, CEO of Alphamin Resources Corp. (TSXV: AFM) about Alphamin’s recent news release on achieving record Q3 EBITDA, and about its net debt free position supported by rising tin prices and increased tin production at Alphamin’s Mpama North Mine.

In this InvestorIntel interview, which may also be viewed on YouTube (click here to subscribe to the InvestorIntel Channel), Maritz Smith said that, primarily used for soldering circuit board connections, tin is the glue that holds our technology, as well as circuit boards, together, but that there is a global shortage of tin at the moment because of decades of limited investment in tin exploration. Currently producing 4% of the world’s tin, Maritz said that Alphamin is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth potential in the tin market and ultimately fill a substantial portion of the supply gap going forward.

To watch the full interview, click here.

About Alphamin Resources Corp.

When investing in miners, investors love to see rising commodity prices, growing production numbers, growing EBITDA or cash flows, falling or zero net debt, and ideally some dividends. Today’s company has achieved 4 of the 5 and will potentially have the 5th component ‘dividends’ added soon.

Alphamin Resources Corp. (TSXV: AFM) (“Alphamin”) is a pure-play, low-cost, tin concentrate producer, from its high-grade deposit at the Mpama North, Bisie Tin Mine, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Alphamin has a Resource Reserve of 3.33MT @ 4.01% Sn (tin) resulting in 133.4 kt of contained tin.

Alphamin operates the high grade, low cost, producing Bisie Tin Mine in the DRC

Source: Alphamin company presentation

High tin prices

The tin market continues to go from strength to strength, the tin price is currently at US$34,930/t. Tin prices are up 93.28% over the past year, driven by strong demand (consumer electronics and other green energy related products) and weak supply (notably from COVID-19 impacted Malaysia & Indonesia). For 2021, tin supply is forecast to be in deficit by 10,200 tons which should continue to support tin prices in the short term.

Growing production numbers and growing EBITDA

Alphamin has taken full advantage of the stronger tin prices in 2021 by increasing tin production an impressive 17% in the last quarter (measured as over the June quarter). This has resulted in a record Q3 EBITDA guidance of US$53 million, up 56% for the third quarter, 2021,from the prior quarter.

Debt falling to zero

All of this has put Alphamin in a great financial position of being able to reduce their debt to zero. This is an outstanding achievement given the net debt was US$59.9 million as of 31 December 2020.

As announced on October 4, Alphamin stated that for the quarter ended September 2021:

“The Company moved to a net cash position at 30 September 2021, compared to a net debt position of US$29.5m the previous quarter. Our intention is to fully settle the outstanding senior loan of US$36m during October 2021. The Board will establish an appropriate treasury strategy during Q4 2021 with the objective of balancing capital allocations between ongoing exploration drilling, the potential fast-track development of the Mpama South deposit and shareholder distributions.”

Dividends

As suggested in the quote above, investors should potentially be able to look forward to some dividends (“shareholder distributions”) in 2022. This will considerably strengthen the appeal of Alphamin to a broader group, including those investors seeking an income.

Exploration upside (Mpama North expansion on the existing resource, Mpama South, and Bisie Ridge)

• Drilling at Mpama North is to test the strike and dip extension of the current producing orebody.
• Considerable drilling at the Mpama South deposit is expected to lead to a Maiden Mineral Resource to be announced by year end 2021. More details here.
• Drilling at Bisie Ridge (13km strike length) is expected to commence on delivery of additional drill rigs. Exploration has identified several high potential drill targets less than 8km from the current operating mine which match and are co-incident with the soil sampling results.

Alphamin’s stock price has tracked the tin price higher boosted by strong global tin demand

Source: Alphamin company presentation

Closing remarks

Tin has been named “the forgotten critical mineral” for good reason. It is because tin is used in electrical and electronic solders, and it is therefore found everywhere in electronics and green energy products. Some say that tin is “the metal most impacted by new technology“.

Alphamin Resources is now ticking all the boxes – A pure play, low cost, high grade tin concentrate producer with exploration upside; high tin prices supported by strong demand from electronics and new and green technology; growing production numbers and growing EBITDA, debt falling to zero, and the very real prospect of dividends commencing in 2022.

Alphamin Resources Corp. trades on a market cap of C$1.039 billion and a forecast 2021 PE of 11.5, even after the stock price has risen 295% over the past one year. Some DRC risk applies but for now, the Company is making all the right moves.