Resource experts target the holidays for a market turnaround
Jeff Phillips, President of Global Market Developments slapped a silver dollar in my palm at the New Orleans Investment Conference (#NOIC14) and said: “…mark this day on your calendar Tracy, as we are 30 days from the bottom of the market.” Considering the market lately, I swiftly slipped the silver dollar in my pocket after tweeting out the good news to our readership.
It appears we have a holiday rally and a wonderful new year to look forward to in the resource sector market, or so I have concluded after speaking to numerous top players in the sector at #NOIC2014 this last week. As Paul Kuhn, President of Avrupa Minerals (TSXV: AVU) so aptly narrated existing market sentiments: “Everyone hates mining right now, so it’s time to get in.”
A coffee with Thom Calandra, editor and founder of The Calandra Report revealed an even better translation of existing market conditions, when he confirmed that indeed – the bottom has not only officially and already been hit, but Monday he anticipates the start of a recovery. He added: “I think it’s going to be rocking next week.” He then went on to add the real pivotal change will occur when the Swiss referendum on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) storage of gold occurs on November 30th. According to polls, while majority support is not a guarantee: “If approved, the SNB would have to massively bolster its gold holdings, which stood at 1,040 tonnes this month according to the World Gold Council, representing 7.8 percent of reserves.” Thom perceives a major media gold push to happen by the holiday, and I must agree that there are signs to support this position. After all, it did not go unnoticed that 60 Minutes dusted off a 2011 Yukon gold rush story for last week’s episode….and it wasn’t a re-run.
Keep in mind that the resource menu is wide, and you can literally taste the tension in the uranium sector mounting. Peter G. Dasler, P.Geo., President and CEO, Director for CanAlaska Uranium Ltd. (TSXV: CVV) said when I was visiting his booth, “I am positive that in 2015 we will have a very big change in the uranium market.” He went on to claim that his turnaround had happened last week.
Brent Cook, Editor and Geologist for Exploration Insights after a few minutes of conversation finally provided the most conservative response of the lot. In attempting to translate his comments properly, would like to mention that he felt that the discussion on forecasts was perhaps a waste of energy as he commented that no one can see the future. This said, he thinks the turnaround may take another year. Granted, I did get him to say that the turnaround “could” also start as early as tomorrow…
Brien Lundin, owner of Jefferson Companies and the Director of #NOIC2014 – when I asked him if we were at the bottom yet commented “yes, or very near….” but was adamant that “no one knows when the turn is coming.” Bob Bishop added when the same question was asked that we are “close enough to the bottom that it doesn’t matter.”
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So for all of you naysayers and IR pro’s locked in your basement – it’s clearing, so perhaps you can prepare to come out? After all, if you are not out there now when the vultures are flying around, you could miss out on the action. As one source confessed to me in conversation: “we are literally whipping out the check books during the holidays”. Of course, the stories with cash – the companies that are producing, and the ones with strong business models and great leadership are lining up on the tarmac, so if your plane is dusty, you may want to start with a fresh coat of paint.
Is there any math to support this? For starters 100% of the InvestorIntel sectors we cover were up last week, and honestly, I cannot recall the last time I saw this happen. InvestorIntel Oil & Gas members led the sector average increases — up +10.40%. Cleantech members followed a close second, up +10.02%, Biotech member +5.27%, Graphite & Graphene members +5.05%, Uranium & Nuclear Energy members +4.72%, Gold, Base & Precious Metals +4.42%, Rare Earths & Technology Metals members +1.54% — and Agribusiness was close, but managed to be positive – +.95% for the week.
Tracy Weslosky is the CEO of InvestorIntel Corp., a company that publishes InvestorIntel.com. A leading source for investors, entrepreneurs and industry leaders alike, InvestorIntel is ... <Read more about Tracy Weslosky>