A JLR Contest to label the steps in a junior miner stock market bubble
I’ve always enjoyed following the progress of high-risk start up companies in their journey into and through the stock market and to profitable production. One of the most popular graphic displays of such progress is known as Gartner’s “Hype Cycle Indicators.”
I have never seen this chart specifically labeled so as to fit the junior mining “hype” cycle, such as the late unlamented “uranium ‘boom’” or the still in-progress “rare earth crisis.” I therefore propose that we all look at this chart and that we each try to label it specifically to show the events of the current rare earth junior miner promotional cycle.
I will start off the contest with a first entry by suggesting that “R&D,” the first label in the lower left corner be replaced by “Supply Crisis is Discovered.” I will even give the date on which the rare earth “Supply Crisis is Discovered” as August, 2007.
Please, those of you who wish to participate, state the name of the existing label and then state your proposed replacement.
I will update the graph labels with the best entries each week until the end of 2013, and then in early 2014, we will publish the definitive “Rare Earth Hype Indicator for 2014.”
I sincerely believe that by early in 2014 we will be able to choose those rare earth juniors that are well on the way to the plateau of productivity, or as I choose to call it at the moment, profitability at their chosen point of entry into the downstream value-added market. As for the rest we will see from the chart where they went wrong or just ran out of gas.
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I will persist even if none of you make any suggestions, but I’d much rather share the blame than take it all, so please join in.
Let me know if you wish to have your name immortalized on the final graph. Otherwise you will be anonymous.
I’m still thinking about a prize for the best new label(s).
Jack Lifton is the CEO for Jack Lifton, LLC and is a consultant, author, and lecturer on the market fundamentals of technology metals. Technology metals ... <Read more about Jack Lifton>