EDITOR: | July 27th, 2020

Leading the race no one wants to win – a COVID-19 global case update

| July 27, 2020 | No Comments

COVID-19 is on everyone’s mind these days as it appears it will be here — for an undeterminable amount of time. The various countries have had a wide range of responses, with some clearly being more effective than others. The one thing about this virus is it needs to be respected and until some sort of vaccine treatment becomes available, the only effective response is to wear a mask and keeping a social distance.

Looking at cases per million in the populations globally, Chile leads the 19 countries I am tracking with almost 18,000 cases per million, followed by the USA with nearly 13,000 per million. Neither country shows signs of slowing, as shown in the graph below. Peru and Brazil are also trending up at around 11,000 per million. Next, is Sweden, which is closing in on 8,000 per million. Spain, which had levelled off is seeing an uptick at 6,835 per million. Russia is climbing at 5,500 per million and India, due to its huge population is just starting the growth curve exhibited by all countries at 1,000 per million.

This said, I question both Russia’s and India’s numbers given limited testing in India is at 11,500 per million. And in reviewing Russia’s curve, the testing results are not showing the typical exponential growth. Perhaps this is due to how they classify cases since they are among the best in testing? Remember the USA? It took less than one month to move from 8,000 to almost 13,000 positive cases of COVID-19 per million. At this rate, the USA will break 18,000 cases per million before the end of August!

On the stat review of deaths per million, the UK is the unfortunate winner. The UK has 670 per million, followed by Spain with 608 per million. Italy, which had the world watching at the onset, has levelled off to 580 deaths per million. Other European countries such as Sweden, has 560 COVID-19 deaths per million, and France’s numbers average at 460 per million. These European countries are flattening the fatality curve, with Sweden being the last one to turn the corner, it is deemed to be heading in the right direction.

This group is being closely watched by four countries whose death toll trends are still escalating. These countries include Chile at 457 per million, the USA at 438 per million, Peru at 417 per million and Brazil at 390 deaths per million. Given this data is a lagging indicator, I expect these four to surpass France and grow to over 500 per million in the upcoming weeks. The only other country with over 350 deaths per million is the Netherlands. In reviewing my chart below, you will see that Canada kind of stands out by itself at 235 deaths per million. All the rest of the 19 countries I follow have less than 110 deaths per million.

In comparing the USA and Canada there are stark contrasts. Not saying that Canada has done a great job given it s slow response in nursing homes, but the charts below paint a different picture of two neighbors. The USA has 4.3% of the world’s population and has 26.7% of the world’s cases and a whopping 23.4% of the world’s deaths. Compare this to Canada, which has 0.5% of the world’s population, 0.7% of the world’s cases and 1.4% of the world’s deaths.

Let me know what you think of the data charts, and remember to respect the virus and stay safe — wear a mask.

Alastair Neill


Alastair Neill is the President of Trinity Management, a consulting company specializing in business development activities in rare earths, specialty metals and start-up of technology-based ... <Read more about Alastair Neill>

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