EDITOR: | December 4th, 2019 | 2 Comments

Dominating global electric car sales – can anyone catch Tesla?

| December 04, 2019 | 2 Comments

When looking at 2019 electric car sales there can be no doubt that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is dominating global sales. Tesla is number 1 in global electric car sales, number 1 in US sales, and number 1 in Europe. Model 3 sales are almost triple the next model, and in the US Tesla sales make up a massive 75–85% market share. In this article, I take a look if anyone can catch up with Tesla as we head into the 2020s.

Tesla is number 1 globally with 16% market share, and Tesla Model 3 sales are almost triple the nearest competitor (2019 YTD, as of end of October)

Why is Tesla dominating?

  • Brand, style, performance and quality – Model S won the best car ever, and Tesla is now famous for stunning looking cars with top tier performance.
  • Range and efficiency – Tesla’s cars achieve more range per kWh than any of their competitors. They just won an award for the most efficient global electric car ever.
  • Charging network – Tesla has by far the world’s most expansive charging network.

To summarize the above, Tesla is dominating as they are at least 5 years ahead of their competition. Only the Chinese BYD Co., BAIC, SAIC, Geely pose a challenge. The ICE manufacturers have been asleep at the wheel in past years making compliance cars. Volkswagen, BMW, Renault/Nissan, and Hyundai/Kia are making better progress in recent years, but will still take some years to try and catch up with Tesla.

Tesla Model 3 – Recently rated the most efficient electric car ever

Tesla in 2020

By early 2020 we will see Tesla’s Shanghai China gigafactory start ramping up production of Model 3. Tesla began Model 3 sales in China in October 2019, with some early production models released in November 2019. Production capacity at the Shanghai factory is set to rise to 250,000 initially, with a capacity of 500,000 cars a year.

This has the potential to boost Tesla’s global dominance even further. By the end of 2020, Tesla will also be selling (or soon to start producing) Model Y SUV. Tesla state: “Model Y production is expected to begin in late 2020 for North America, and in early 2021 for Europe and China.”

Tesla in 2021

By the end of 2021, Tesla should be producing the Tesla Cybertruck pickup. Also, Tesla should be starting to produce some small volumes of the Tesla Semi and Roadster 2. The latter two may be delayed into 2022, we will see.

Tesla models to come – Model Y, Roadster 2, Cybertruck, and Semi

Tesla is already leading the pack by a significant margin (5% ahead of BYD co). As we head into 2020 that lead may increase with Model 3 sales starting in China. Once Model Y production starts sales should surge again, then again with the cyber pickup truck, Roadster 2, and Semi.

Add in Tesla’s growing energy storage business with Powerwall, Powerpack, and Megapack and it is hard not to see Tesla continuing to dominate electric vehicles (EVs) and Energy Storage (ES) for the next decade ahead.

Valuation is hard to assess given the accumulating debt, small profit at this stage, and large CapEx ahead. But one thing looks certain – Tesla is set to be the most popular electric vehicle company for the next decade as all its competitors scramble to catch up.

What do you think? Can anyone catch up with Tesla?

Note: The author is long Tesla (TSLA).


Matthew Bohlsen is a Senior Editor for InvestorIntel.com. With a Graduate Diploma in Applied Finance and Investment, and a Graduate Diploma in Financial Planning. He ... <Read more about Matthew Bohlsen>

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  • steve

    Is Tesla 5% ahead of BYD, or 50%?

    December 4, 2019 - 1:43 PM

    • Matthew Bohlsen

      @STEVE – I see your point. 5% ahead in global market share, and ~38% ahead of BYD on a sales units basis. Quite a significant lead with Model 3 in China to ramp up, followed by Model Y, cybertruck etc. It will be very interesting to see how Model 3 sales from the Shanghai factory go, especially in the current slow China sales environment.

      December 5, 2019 - 12:47 AM

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