November 27, 2022

MP Materials: It is Rare Earths Deja Vu All Over Again.

As we know, MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP), successfully closed the business combination with Fortress Value Acquisition Corp. in mid November 2020, amid a wild ride for shareholders. The share price has rocketed to more than a quadruple for initial investors in the $200 million PIPE. Current market capitalization is approaching US$7 billion – it looks like the stock is set for yet another record high today (February 16, 2021).

The company will be releasing Q4-2020 results after the markets close on March 18, 2021. The company had a profitable third quarter 2020 ($14.6 million Net Income and $11.6 million Adjusted EBITDA) and outside the accounting adjustments for contract changes with Shenghe Resources, should show annual results consistent with the quarter.

The company’s Mountain Pass mine and associated processing facilities are in California, just off the Nevada border at Mountain Pass. Production started about 70 years ago in the only rare earths mining and processing site of scale in the Western Hemisphere. By management’s estimates, MP Resources currently produces approximately 15% of global rare earths content. Recall that the mine was restarted in 2017, with mining and processing currently exceeding levels achieved prior to the current management team taking over.

The company has an offtake agreement with Shenghe Resources (Singapore) that was modified in mid-2020. MP Materials is now free to sell to whomever they choose, (are there other buyers?) but will still be repaying the Shenghe Offtake Advance (currently $78 million). Management of MP Materials has estimated that this would be approximately four years from the date of the modification of the offtake agreement, putting it sometime in 2024.

As reported in MP Material’s Q3-2020 Form 8-K (page 12) “The completion of our Stage II optimization plan and any development of Stage III is expected to be capital intensive. We expect to invest approximately $170 million to complete our Stage II optimization plan….”. While the company has stated that it has completed process redesign and engineering for Stage II, we all recall the problems Molycorp had trying to get Project Phoenix to work as designed and arguably being one of the elements that caused Molycorp to go bankrupt. MP Materials has a strong balance sheet, but rare earths processing is not easy – it appears that a North American rare earths supply chain (as far as MP Materials is concerned) may just have to wait.

MP Materials closed the business combination with Fortress Value Acquisition Corp. in November 2020 with the stated objective of the merger to fund MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine Stage II optimization plan. The company “expects to become a fully integrated provider of separated rare earth oxides, with a focus on Neodymium-Praseodymium, one of the most crucial inputs for magnetics, by 2022.” There is substantial mining and processing infrastructure in place at Mountain Pass with a comprehensive plan developed to even become a downstream magnet producer (Stage III, 2025-ish)

Is this possible? There are numerous detractors who think that this is an unachievable game plan, but clearly the market disagrees. The company also announced on November 18, 2020, that the company had been awarded a Defense Production Act Title III technology investment agreement to establish domestic processing for separated light rare earth elements. Under the TIA, the US Department of Defense will contribute $9.6 million towards MP Materials’ Stage II optimization efforts.

According to the most recent update in the Q3-2020 results presentation, the Stage II Project remains on track for 2022. The front-end engineering design (FEED) is complete, all circuit designs are complete, long-lead procurements were expected to be complete by December 2020 with initial civil mobilization also expected the first week of December 2020 and full mobilization expected in January 2021. An update on these items in March or sooner will be important.

As I said before – it continues to look promising so far, but hang on, with the history at this site and the fast money in the markets right now, let’s hope history does not repeat itself.

Disclaimer: The author of this post may or may not be a shareholder of any of the companies mentioned in this column. None of the companies discussed in the above feature have paid for this content. The writer of this article/post/column/opinion is not an investment advisor, and is neither licensed to nor is making any buy or sell recommendations. For more information about this or any other company, please review their public documents to conduct your own due diligence. To access the disclaimer and other important legal notices, click here.

14 responses


    So, Shenghe will take all the Neodymium-Praseodymium that MP extracts for the next 4 years? Yikes! I wonder what investors (in MP) think about that.

    1. Rare Earths Investor Avatar
      Rare Earths Investor

      Is this why the US DoD seems to be leaning towards Lynas for both L and HRE processing? MP with a China 4 yr contract and a lack of their own HRE feedstock? Maybe why the MP CEO has talked so openly about being able to go it alone without US backing? Agreed there is hype galore in the RE sector presently. Clearly, there is some logical basis to it but anyone else beginning to get some sense of 2010-11 again? Vast majority of RE sector niche mining companies are IMHO highly unlikely to emerge. Investors beware! Swing traders good luck.

  2. Paul Vickerman Avatar
    Paul Vickerman

    Thanks for article

    1. Dan Brandenburg Avatar
      Dan Brandenburg

      I wouldn’t think $75 million would be worth a 4 year delay given the level of concern over zero domestic production capacity. Strange.

    2. ian reid Avatar
      ian reid

      Oh good lord. Seriously out of the loop.

  3. Jack Lifton Avatar
    Jack Lifton

    Project Phoenix, Mark Smith’s grand plan to bring Molycorp back from the dead failed. Were the Mountain Pass “processing” operations placed into “care and maintenance” upon the 2015 bankruptcy? If not, what exactly is the plan to resuscitate it once again. If the project was scrapped then what exactly is the new plan and timeline? The US Dept of Defense has zero expertise in reviving dead mines and even less expertise in downstream processing . It therefore has no way to judge a business model or plan. The DoD Title III award was to the best (convincing fictional) plan submitted for an award. It tells us nothing about MPs probability of success.

  4. Gary McNeish Avatar
    Gary McNeish

    I am fed up of the scaremongering and the amount of money being wasted on REE mining. REE do not have to be mined. They are available in Red Mud (Bauxite residue) with over 4 (four) billion tons stockpiled globally. So why spend millions mining when it’s there for the taking? I have a patent application for the extraction of REE from red mud without the use of acids, chemicals or solvants. Low cost and can be done on a industrial scale.

    1. Philippe Groleau Avatar
      Philippe Groleau

      I would be happy to learn more about your patent and method… I am from Quebec, Canada where we have a lot of alumineries.. aluminium smelters with cheap hydroelectricity that generates a lot of red mud… I would like to compare the real costs and risk with hard rock mining.

    2. J R Hansen Avatar
      J R Hansen

      You should check out the patents that AREC already has. You’re too late.

    3. J R Hansen Avatar
      J R Hansen

      You need to check the patents that American Resources already has for clean REE development. You are too late.

      1. Gary McNeish Avatar
        Gary McNeish

        Do you think so? My patent for the extraction of metals from red mud must have been to late as well we have only raised $190 million if im to late. Turn off the alarm clock there is no rush.

  5. Wanda Avatar

    Oh good, is it gonna go down for a minute? Seems like it’s getting spendy.

  6. George Webb Avatar
    George Webb

    Interesting info and as always risk v. gain!

  7. Colin Sutherland Avatar
    Colin Sutherland

    Capex up / Punted SRK / CEO Sold / Did a convertible – dumb money loves this.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *